Euro's Third Down Leg

looks like Goldman faded the USD rally too early
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldmans-attempt-ambush-dollar-aborted-tactical-shorts-closed-stop-losses-hit

i think euro usd will com 1.4148

ETFs can track dxy. Once dollar bull EFT was so overbought this week that they had to suspend trading as they were pounded with orders from investment houses.

nathan, i have never seen an analyst who has never been wrong about someting. You should also use your own judgement.

For stocks and commodities i like to listen to investment banks because the market cap is much smaller and it is mainly consumer/institutionally driven. Many banks predicted year end on S&P to end between 900 - 1200 which many thought was impossible given the state of the world economy and financial market panic mode.

For fx (medium - long term) you can't rely on anyone as the market is too big and there are MANY factors/players that are being played at one time and although traders help move the market they do not wholly cos there are commercial and central bank factors that you cannot predict. Look at the predicted at start of year and you see currency analysts all over the place and they are constantly revising. It is a much harder price to predict than stocks. For example, Golman and Citi are forecasting the dollar to resume bear trend into 2010 Q1 and they predict $1.55/euro in Q1. Their forecasters are rubbish and are getting paid to guess a few figures and issue their notes to clients. Barclays and Goldman also predicted israeli shekel/dollar to hit 3.5 by end of year only a few months ago and it is now 3.8 and rising.

spec why do you think that I'm behind the curve? Could you give me please a more detailed fundamental outlook which would support the USD?

The only things I can imagine are shocks like wars (Israel-Iran?).

The unemployment numbers are still rising and the way the US calculate them does just not show the real picture, IMHO. So the rates will stay low for some time and there even might be more stimulus stuff.