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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 1558
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 1558
Forum Topic:
JPY
Discuss JPY
In that regard, BNP Paribas suggests that there is a distinct chance that Mr Kuroda will try to stay ahead of the curve and call an extraordinary meeting of the MPC ahead of the scheduled April 4 announcement.
As such BNPP advises its clients to re-position on the short side of the yen trade to leverage this possible BoJ surprise over the coming days.
"Since we suspect that markets have trimmed their short JPY positions slightly, there is scope for the BoJ to surprise with the timing of easing, which would open the path for a strong rebound in USD/JPY," BNPP adds.
JAPAN: Ashraf Laidi of CityIndex notes the "massive converge" taking place
between Japanes home bias and non-Japanese demand for Japanese equities. Weekly
data shows that Japanese purchases of foreign stocks hit a net negative of
Y270bn (Japanese investors net sellers of non-Japanese stocks), with the number
near the prior weeks Y442bn, the "highest print for net Japanese selling of
foreign stocks on record." In contrast, weekly data shows that foreign purchases
of Japanese stocks hit a 9-year high of Y1.12trn, getting ever closer to the
2004 record of Y1.15trn. He reminds that there was a 175% plunge in Japanese net
purchases of foreign stocks from October 2012 to the first week of March 2013.
"Over the same period, foreign net inflows to Japanese stocks soared 550%,"
Laidi says. The Nikkei 225 is up 20.8% ytd, more than any other equity index.
"This may sound excessive for 3 months, but ... the index is only 79.6% above
its 2008 lows (aka generational lows), which compares to +120% for its global
peers from their own generational lows," he says.
Ashraf
trn/month of open-ended asset purchases from May, an extension JGB maturity for
APP to 5yr from current 3yr, a cut in IOER to 5bp from current 10bp) and put
questions to clients recently. "About 50% of clients think expected policy
measures for easing at the April 3/4 BoJ meeting.... and 31% think it would be
more dovish than that." Only 4% see more dovish measures, 10% expect more
hawkish measures and 5% expect policy to be unchanged. JPM looked for the BOJ to
announce (1) the consolidation of the APP and Rinban operation (with extension
of JGB maturity up to 30 years vs current 3 years), (2) pulling forward the
timing of the start of the open-ended AP to May 2013, currently from the
beginning of next year, (3) an increase in AP to Y4 trn a month (or Y48 trn a
year), (4)a change in wording on guidance to "the BOJ will continue the
virtually zero rate policy until the 2% inflation target is in sight" from the
current wording that "the Bank will pursue aggressive monetary easing through a
virtually zero rate policy and purchases of financial assets, as long as the
Bank judges it appropriate to continue with each policy measure respectively"
Ashraf
This tarring with same brush is the same the world over. Its really silly. You know that your peoples in the Dordogne have a distinct contempt for Parisians where they are happy to accept Les Anglais :-) Providing they don't colonise.