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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 8935
Forum Topic:

Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)

Discuss Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
 
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Qingyu
manchester, UK
Posts: 1763
11 years ago
May 19, 2013 12:33
In reply to cat0nip's post
form my understanding, uncle sam want jap replace china, so abe spell. spell not reason, but uncle sam wish.

usdx surge match seeking safe heaven before crash, and jpy no longer best safe heaven. imho, long UJ wont lose. yep, maybe 88/89/94.
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
11 years ago
May 19, 2013 12:28
Strength meter not suitable for position trades
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
11 years ago
May 19, 2013 11:51
In reply to Qingyu's post
Conclusion is we need another analysis , of the totality of markets. At least for position trades. Can it be that the JPY devaluates only because Abe's magic spell? And so on. For short scalps up to day trades I need only the strength meter. No predictions.
Qingyu
manchester, UK
Posts: 1763
11 years ago
May 19, 2013 11:10
In reply to cat0nip's post
let's jump to conclusion pls. buy put or call, so simple.
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
11 years ago
May 19, 2013 11:05
Consider the chart of DOW from say 1900 to now. The DOW is a price in USD that is considered a constant and independent of the DOW price. But when you chart the DOW in terms of cigarettes , then you have introduced an interdependency of DOW and the buying power of the dollar, and you would see a chart displaying a more or less flat segment. While the DOW has risen about 100-fold in terms of a constant dollar, it has only risen 20 fold in terms of cigarettes. So what is the return actually?
While no one charts the DOW in terms of cigarettes one does so charting a currency pair. EUR depends on USD and USD depends on EUR but you cannot chart the mutual dependency.
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
11 years ago
May 19, 2013 9:26
Prechter always predicts crashes so he sometimes right by chance
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
11 years ago
May 19, 2013 9:25
very simple as a currency exchange chart has 2 variables which
mutually depend on each other thus you need 4 oscillators.
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
11 years ago
May 19, 2013 8:02
Contrary to chart astrology which is a linear approach to non linear price progressions Elliott waves are non linear , and as such not understood by 99% of analysts using EW. Elliott himself
was a good enough mathematician to see at a glance EW could not be
applied on exchange of currencies, but his followers did not get that. E waves can be described as superposition of 2 "quasi-harmonic" oscillators , and Elliott waves are indeed an oscillation, the periodicity is that the EWs repeat. Sornette and others are going way beyond EW as such that the gradients of a price move matters, too. Thus they come up with a crash chart, EW cannot have such. How foolish chartists are, can be seen by their responding to irregularities. When they are bullish, every flash crash is a technical glitch, while every flash spike is bullish, and vice versa.

Qingyu
manchester, UK
Posts: 1763
11 years ago
May 18, 2013 20:54
i was confused with UJ up but on macro stocks downside risk, but usdx move up solve that problem.
Qingyu
manchester, UK
Posts: 1763
11 years ago
May 18, 2013 20:52
In reply to cat0nip's post
i thought u gonna say something after that. :D

anyway, i bet on crash, no matter how.
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