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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Jan 5, 2010 18:55
Comments: 279
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

More Euro Losses Ahead

More losses in the euro are seen ahead despite rallying oil prices.
 
radu
bucharest, Romania
Posts: 203
14 years ago
Jan 19, 2010 15:16



Hi Mackinnovation ,

My mistake...i read rapidly what you wrote and remain in my mind you already closed position at 1.42...:)
I think is possible a up move to 1.436 and then goes down to 1.42-1.423
Good luck
mckinnovation
Dublin, Ireland
Posts: 49
14 years ago
Jan 19, 2010 15:05
I just don't see much euro growth across the board in q1.
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
Jan 19, 2010 14:42
@Jamshed: Interesting analysis, thanks. The old problem of technicals versus fundamentals. Which does one give more credence to?

Well today's dollar rally seems to be faltering, and cable's plummet has been arrested for the moment.
Whether it will regain the dizzy heights of ɭ.64 in the near future remains to be seen.
chloethebull
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Jan 19, 2010 13:45
ya it deffin requires patients...so far this is the longest ive had to hold a usdcad position (20days) my previous 18days lol an took 5k...gl to usdcad lol
PippedOff
Canada
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Jan 19, 2010 13:39
cad is a very frustrating pair
chloethebull
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Jan 19, 2010 13:37
canadian leading indicator 1.5% vs 1.1% highest in 27yrs lol...ohh well we still have us data plus statement from carney lol boc..gl
PippedOff
Canada
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Jan 19, 2010 13:35
c hloe-what happened to cad?
chloethebull
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Jan 19, 2010 13:35
well thats not a good # for usdcad...lol...gl(1.5%)
jamshed
Pakistan
Posts: 57
14 years ago
Jan 19, 2010 13:24


Long Euro ...

On a technical basis, Ashraf and all are correct

on a macro basis, Euro will recover

oveall, the matrix seems to be

1) US slow down + Euro slow down ==> Dollar appreciates due to risk apetite
2) US growth + Euro slow down ==> Dollar appreciates due to yield differential and rising rates
3) US growth + Euro growth ==> Euro appreciates due to risk appetite increase
4) US slow down + Euro growth ==> Euro rises due to rising rate expectations

The current fall of the Euro is due to 2).
However, the transition to 3) this year and then 4) next year will happen

Note that despite heavily Euro shorting since Dec 4, the Euro is holding above 1.42. Whats holding it? depsite every one clamouring for a Euro correction?

The fundametals for Euro rise are in place, and the Euro fall for the last few weeks is just pressure by technicals... lets see if Ashraf's 1.38 comes by end of Q1 or a if Euro moves above 1.45 - my guess

br,
jamshed
mckinnovation
Dublin, Ireland
Posts: 49
14 years ago
Jan 19, 2010 13:23
Radu, IMO technically its ready for a break down south( daily chart), I've posted that trade yesterday actually shorted eurusd at 1.4395 s/l 1.4480 t/p 1.4200. i might sell more if it jumps back to a decent lvl.