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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Mar 9, 2010 0:40
Comments: 200
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

S&P500 / VIX Ratio & USD LIBOR

On the cycles of the S&P500 / VIX ratio and the stabilizing cost of USD 3-month LIBOR relative to its yen counterpart.
 
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Ginger
UK
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Mar 24, 2010 22:40
Ashraf, excellent call on the Euro. The ratio today was 66.5 - given the sell off before the month ends in pervious months my guess is for a mini correction before the march month end as traders close their positions before the Easter holiday period (taking the ratio way below the 65 level) followed by the resumption of the bull trend for April & May. After that I think we'll have the next leg of the bear market which could turn very nasty indeed as reality finally bites with the huge sovereign debt problems around the world.
asad
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Mar 24, 2010 21:26
Callum,

No...I don't usually do indices (just a bit of hedging in Nikkei, that's all)...though I'm resisting shorting the Dow at this stage!

Just hang on if you can. I always say Friday's are interesting - traders usually play games at close - and they usually are! But this Friday could be EVEN more interesting...


Asad
Callum
Singapore, Singapore
Posts: 179
14 years ago
Mar 24, 2010 18:38
asad, you also short'ed on SPX?
asad
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Mar 24, 2010 4:47
Chloe,

Calm down man (Chloe & man, huh?!). That's what the biggies want us to do. Get frustrated & make the wrong move. They're taking us long while most of us are short. Either want us to get liquidated...or get sucked into going long waiting (& then they'll drown us short).

I added crude shorts at 81.78. & hey, don't forget to put stops. Volatile times these are...


Asad
chloethebull
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Mar 23, 2010 22:42
@asad..i agree 100% that fed in orchastating this whole thing..1)getting jp morgan to take greecs off watch list..why they have yet to produce any plan that shows there ok...2)shooting off to china about raiseing there rates knowing that china would get pissed an do the opposite3)maintaining this low rates extended period of time mantra an adding no more dissenters with hoenig...total bs...can u tell im a lil pissed off..lol..2 days now i had a chance to cover gold shorts lock in profits then get it back @1107.5 plus missed out out $1000 flipin a small usdcad position..man i find it hard being nimble(damed if i do damed if i don;t)ashraf do you still see gold goin down to 1070 or less..asad have u been adding to oil shorts i did more @81.92 i missed the top 82.20..ok gl pl
Ginger
UK
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Mar 23, 2010 20:29
Ashraf, does that mean in that the S&P/VIX ratio is now going to melt-up to 80-100 with an overshooting market?
asad
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Mar 23, 2010 20:09
Seems the government is 'manipulating' the market to keep the USD low in order to remain X-competitive! Maybe even 'instructing' the likes of GS & JPM to 'keep it right there'...

Asad
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
Mar 23, 2010 20:06
sub, ginger, stocks like it when Fed starts to preach lower rates. Janet Yellen helps feed stocks by saying Now is NOT time to raise rates, NOT alarmed by budget deficit, Unem to stay HIGH for yrs to come. This SP500 seems heading towards 1199-1200 and Dow seems to be heading towards 11100, 200-week MA

Ashraf
sub
UK
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Mar 23, 2010 19:53
ashraf,
do you still see a 6-7% correction? it seems nothing can stop the spx train right now. spx is now around 1175. what is your max upside view on spx?
Ginger
UK
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Mar 23, 2010 19:16
Ashraf,

It's been strange yesterday and today with $ strength, VIX relatively steady between 16.5 & 17 and yet equities don't want to go lower. Ratio now over 70 (surely the VIX is poised for a rise now) again and the bull market continues. Question is will there be a decent sell off (like you I think we're overdue one) or will we get mini steps back and giant leaps up until the oft talked target of 1250 is reached by April/May.

Ginger
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