EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
How to improve your decision--makingh between Nasdaq100 and SPX by watching technicals in bond yields - Details in video description.
Bitcoin versus Miners Performance
As many of you know 2023 was kind to members of our WhatsApp Broadcast Group who snapped up shares in bitcoin miners, while 2024 has so far been more superior to Bitcoin than most of the miners...
View Hot-Chart..
Why don't you provide us w/ the big picture?! You seem to be working for a top-tier IB, banking thousands of pips & PKR/hour...and writing on this Forum using recycled knowledge from the FT, WSJ, CNBC & Bloomberg. Seriously mate, your commentary above reminds me of Lipsey's Economics textbook I read some ten years ago. Out of interest, did you graduate recently or s/thing? You seem to be pretty enthusiastic.
Unfortunately, international f&e doesn't work this way - it's faaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaar away from t/books. If I'm correct, Ashraf has already made his forte...so not many on this Forum and EVEN your IB would believe what you have to say about him.
Tell you what - make a forte...and I'll see if I buy you...
Asad
Salaam alaikum. My best friend as a kid growing up in the South Bronx was from an Algerian family - so I learned some Arabic & French. And Spanish, as Puerto Ricans were the rest of my buddies. I was the only white guy around.
As to MACD,and dozens of other indicators - I surely know what they are and what they measure.
Since MACD stands for Moving Average Convergence-Divergence, and it uses 2 EMA's (usually 12- and -26 period) to measure the diff between those to EMA's, you would think that as someone who has analyzed numerous EMA inter-relationships that I'd look at MACD closely.
But you know what? I'll repeat: I try to keep it simple so I may not even look at that.
Why is that? Well, first of all, MACD is a trend-following or momentum indicator - and such an indicator can part you and you money real fast in a sideways market, which we have, what 70-80% of the time?
Hooks happen when the Signal line crosses or tries to cross the MACD line - and then reverses at the last moment.
So they're good to identify countertrends within trending markets.
Slingshots are the opposite of divergence, and can identify markets that are about to make a sizeable move upward (a bulling slingshot) or the oppposite (a bearish one).
A bullish slingshot happens when the current swing low is above a previous swing low (these being just extremes in prices), which the MACD readings are just the opposite. So they can tell you things - sometimes.
But let me amplify on my KISS (keep it simple stupid) approach. I don't like getting false signals. I hate getting whip-sawed. I hate situations which look like they're going one way, but they turn on a dime and bite my ass.
So, I take the old expression "the trend is your friend," to an extreme.
I want to see that trend reversed - underway - and continue. Once a particular set of EMA lines cross each other on the daily chart for a given pair, I will wait a full day - and then I will wait another full day. And I will naturally lose any potential profits by waiting. But, I'm fooled so much less than jumping right in, right away.
I'll usually make more overall profits because I will then be on board a sustainable, in-progress trend - instead of guessing and wishing and hoping.
EXCELLENT
U SWING TRADE. IS MACD AND SLINGSHOT AND HOOK GOOD INDICATOR IN FORECASTING TURNING POINT FOR SWING TRADING?
MUCH APPRECIATED
THANKS
"YOU DE MAN!"
The point is this is a forum where we share ideas, concerns, observations, and analysis and learn together, whether it be from each other, from Ashraf, or from the lessons the market teaches on a daily basis.
I'm also a professional institutional trade in derivatives and interest rates space with also exposure to supra/sovereign bonds. I think you don't give this forum and those who follow Ashraf enough credit.
This is in the EUR forum, because the trade I did in mid-January was short the EURUSD @ 1.42905
for $10,000 cash, using 50:1 leverage. I detest day-trading - it gives me a headache.
At the very least, I'm a swing-trader - but almost all my trades are longer-term even than that because I rarely get my desired level within the 4-5 days a swing-trader operates in.
I usually hold positions until they play out for me. And the single most-important lessson I've learned from about 3-4 years of fx-trading? Setting tight stops will kill you: 100% of the time.
Ashraf has repeatedly stated this: do not leverage yourself so highly that some "noise" - the back and forth, up and down, that always happens will stop you out.
Sometimes, My own signals results is substantial profits within 2-3 weeks.
This EURUSD trade has now gone on into it's 3rd month, with endless range-bound activity.
At this moment - as I look at another screen for my Oanda account,
$8828 is my original $10000 starting balance for this trade (I use a new sub-acct for each trade)
Why? Because the rest was lost to paying interest daily on shorting the Euro!
$28319 is my current unrealized profit, which is 320%
And my goal? Ashraf's 1.32 prediction, because it coincides closely with my own.
I really thought we'd get there on March 25th when we got down to 1.3266 - but that day's daily
not-quite-doji, not-quite-spinning-top candle hinted that we'd be taking a ride upward for a while.
I have tried day-trading in both forex - and stocks - and I've had a modicum of success. But it drives me crazy. But I've had most of my success in long-term trades such as the one I'm in right now.
So, patience is a virtue - if it rewards you often enough.
Try to create an elegant trading system (using a few variables that consistently work in conjunction with each other) as possible.
And you then won't have this schizo back and forth "what's happening to me" feeling day after day in your own trading.
In reply to the EUR worth at least 1.40 USD. Consider that it is in the interest of virtually every European country to have a cheaper Euro. The reasons are taught in ECONOMICS 101.
I've read reports that Angela Merkel has privately said she hopes for a 1.20 Euro to come to pass.
For a long, long time the undervalued US dollar was the essence of our monetary policy
I couldn't resist commenting of some of your observations.
Firstly, let me state that I'm very far from being a "jobless day-trader."
My intent here is not to plug my own website, but suffice it to say you'll see my pic & data in an issue of Parade Magazine this month in their "What People Earn" annual issue. My understanding is Parade has a readership of about 71 million - so just a few more people will know about me - but millions already do.
That issue will indicate that I make 7-figures annually as a prognosticator - of different sorts.
For the past 32 years, I've been considered by many in the media as the best sports-betting handicapper around - covering every conceivable betting sport there is - as you can see on my site when you get around to looking at it. Just do a google search of my name when it becomes known to you.
Why do I bring this up? Certainly not self-aggrandizement. But let me tell you a commonality with approach of all the great sports-handicappers I've ever know: elegant simplicity.
I'm a good stock-picker. I'm a pretty decent forex-guy, as well. But, I'm an extraordinary sports handicapper because over the years I have determined, by analyzing literally thousands of variables, what given factors MOST influence the outcome of various sporting events.
And after decades of work, I quantified those variables by creating mathematical algorithms, which themselves might encompass no more than perhaps a dozen variables. And these formulae (and there's a different one for every sport I cover) create for me statistically-enhanced choices which I then sell to my clientele as plays - which they then proceed to bet on.
Perfect I'm not (I sound like Yoda, there). But I'm good at what I do, which is why I have thousands of clients worldwide.
The lesson I wish to impart? Whatever market you're trying to analyze: KISS - Keep it Simple, Stupid. In this case, simplicity is better. And the simpler a successful, replicable solution is, the more elegant that solution becomes.
In FX, you can get caught up with so, so many different things. I've mentioned that I'm not a forum person. When you pick football, basketball, baseball, hockey, soccer, etc plays for a living, when you win for people they expect that to happen if they have paid for the info. Ah, but the obverse? You're a living piece of garbage if you should lose for them - even short-term - and they stuff every available forum with those tidbits of info. So I don't read that crap.
But even here, in Ashraf's small FX forum, I see what you see: people who get caught up in what they think is a sure-fire (buy..or substitute the work "sell") RSI reading...or a screwy MACD...or any of the almost infinite number of technical-analysis indicators in use.
Obviously, a popular indicator will have some predictive use. Otherwise, it wouldn't have stood the test of time long enough to get popular.
But what most people who use them cannot fathom is that many of these indicators will give you diametrically opposite readings - one might yell BUY which simultaneously another screams SELL.
And, sadly, this often results in the uncomfortable state of cognitive dissonance - where two conflicting viewpoints try to assert control. People don't like this, so what they do is rationalize one of those viewpoints (in this case, the BUY indicators) over the other viewpoint (the indicators telling them to SELL).
The result of this, most of the time? The speculator loses his money. And he just can't comprehend why that was.
Rule: Do NOT fall in love with any given technical indicator and use that alone as your basis for a trade.
I've tried to apply my KISS approach from sports-handicapping to my FX ventures.
And what works for me may not work for you. Nor am I going to go into the specifics of what I've discovered the hard-way over the years: much trial and error losses...and then more losse..and then ultimately more gains then loses.
I almost solely use EMA's (exponential moving averages) - particularly 20, 50, 100, & 200-day lines -
applied to a daily candlestick chart.
Do the research yourself. LONG-TERM, see what happens when each of these EMA lines crosses above or below another EMA. Correlate your results. Make sure that there is replicability - that these things happen numerous times and not just once.
While all moving-averages, by their very nature, are lagging indicators (since they show what has already happened), this works for me.
I could tell you for almost any given cross-pair between two majors what happens when any 2 of the EMA lines cross over each other - in either direction, from below or above. But that's my own proprietary data.
This is in the EUR forum, because the trade I did in mid-January was short the EURUSD @ 1.42905
for $10,000 cash, using 50:1 le
Am I right in saying that the dead-cross happened today? (90 day weekly SMA below 200 day weekly SMA?). Is this significant in your view?
G
+50 pips shorting cable this morning and looking to repeat with similar as it comes back down again.
Wish there was a way of trading all that hot air from naysayers.