EUR

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Ashraf Laidi

London, UK

Posts: 0

14 years ago

Apr 19, 2010 16:40

Greece is in nearly as in bad shape as Argentina was 2001-02. They cannot devalue their currency and their debt levels have very little chance of being fixed. if they are however, they will have to cut spending and/or raise taxes by far than any govt would tolerate.

Not enough attention is being placed on the PROPER austerity plan required to get that deficit/GDp ratio down. More emphasis is being centered on price impact (bond spreads and euro moves) as well as on the ability for Greece to raise money in its short term bond forays.

Ashraf

Anonymous

Posted Anonymously

14 years ago

Apr 19, 2010 15:12

Got this from a friend which I want to share, sounds interesting:

"Last week Prof. Steve Hall of the London School of Economics has received a honorary doctorate at the University of Pretoria. We could talk with him. He acts as adviser for the Bank of Greece. Hmm...

Do they have big trouble - Yes! (And a lot of it started with the Olympics).
Will they default - No!
Will the EZ fall apart and the EURO - No!
Will there be contagion - not likely to a significant extent because countries like Portugal to a lesser extent, but Spain and Italy are just large and dynamic enough not to worry too much about that.

Then he said something interesting. They believe the solution is a swap of Greece (euro) bonds for German (euro) bonds. (No detail, but just the point, there is another rather simple solution not yet on the table.)

We will see how that eventually pans out."

Shane

Lahore, Pakistan

Posts: 209

14 years ago

Apr 19, 2010 4:41

however i still have a gut feeling that we may be getting into a long term euro down trend, some signs are visible in monthly and weekly charts but nothing clear. Dollar long term trading also suggests a uptrend in picture for next couple of years . eur is most likely to suffer most if dollar is uptrending a couple of upcoming months will make the picture very clear.

Shane

Pakistan

Posted Anonymously

14 years ago

Apr 19, 2010 4:29

catnip
the asian reaction is a bit reluctant nothing much, euro has been the single currency to go down for a long time but right now its a suicide to trade euro anyways i am not trading euro untill it reestablishes its downtrend or changes the trend. Greece out of the picture but with GS in the court it might give us some impulsive drawdowns in stocks but nothing much i believe. we already have the downtrend for more than 4 months.

macrosam

United States

Posts: 190

14 years ago

Apr 18, 2010 23:16

Good points, catnip. I will wait, as difficult as it is.

montmorency

Abingdon, UK

Posts: 610

14 years ago

Apr 18, 2010 23:00

@Asad: I could argue about Black Swan events on several grounds but won't waste time and space here and now. Let's perhaps just compare notes on it in a few weeks or months :-)

catnip

Frankfurt, Germany

Posted Anonymously

14 years ago

Apr 18, 2010 21:06

Imo Greece is already out of focus. Greece was/is like a cheerleader or a canary in a mine but is fundamentally not a big problem. As far as I see from CDS the next and that is really big target is France. However I expect no extraordinary moves in EUR/USD in the coming week. The real storm is still brewing. Also I believe DOW will hover above 11000 could break 11000 to drop to 10700 by end of week. I think this won't be very likely. No one could harm GS as GS has a desastrous bomb, derivatives that easily outdo Lehman's.

mandiwie

kartitsch, Austria

Posts: 69

14 years ago

Apr 18, 2010 20:42

THERE are rumours of higher greece debts (ntv.de)

speculator

Posted Anonymously

14 years ago

Apr 18, 2010 20:26

eurodollar 1.33 this week

catnip