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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:

EUR

Discuss EUR in this thread
 
sydneyjames
Sydney, Australia
Posts: 348
14 years ago
Apr 26, 2010 14:49
cheers mate, u r awesome
lalobertone
Buenos Aires, Argentina
Posts: 10
14 years ago
Apr 26, 2010 14:35
Is it my imagination or Merkels saying are very bearish for the euro?
Shane
Lahore, Pakistan
Posts: 209
14 years ago
Apr 26, 2010 14:35
All this chop wants you to believe so many things therefore i am sticking to my last week analysis and i am still waiting for a bounce in euro to short it again. Most of the times it just turns out to be monday confusions and market starts following there orignal short term trends after ny lunch and earlier session in asia.
Shane
Lahore, Pakistan
Posts: 209
14 years ago
Apr 26, 2010 14:29
Really we have no clear direction today, but i will stick to my long eurgbp although Ashraf thinks its going 4 84 this qtr but i will take my chances with sl right below 86. Considering Merkels recent comments and technically as well i think i am wrong going long euro at this time.
ptaczek
Brno, Czech Republic
Posts: 110
14 years ago
Apr 26, 2010 14:24
@sydneyjames: in very easy terms:

CDS: Credit Default Swap. You can look at it as a price of insurance of a certain amount of a debt (a government bond for example). The higher the CDS the higher the perception of a potential default (bankruptcy, crash, screwing up) of the entity selling the debt (the government for example).

Now, regarding bonds, the yield of the bond is similar. Investors want higher yield on a more risky debt (which makes sense: if you're going to give someone irresponsible a money for a piece of paper [a bond], then you want back much more in comparsion to giving money to someone responsible, right?)
Now, the spread (difference) between the yield of German 10yr bund (relatively stable with low risk) and the Greece Government 10yr bond (relatively unstable and risky right now) tells you, how bad is the situation of Greece :) and how screwed the EURo could be.
sydneyjames
Sydney, Australia
Posts: 348
14 years ago
Apr 26, 2010 13:53
THis might sound stupid, i always see German Greek Spread, Greek CDS, what does that all mean? i have looked on wikipedia and google it, still no idea? can anyone explain it to me in layman's term?

thank you
ptaczek
Brno, Czech Republic
Posts: 110
14 years ago
Apr 26, 2010 13:38
@lalobertone: I have no idea :) It could (and probably will be) Greece. Im not sure therefore Im not adding any new entries to my short position and Im waiting to see.
lalobertone
Buenos Aires, Argentina
Posts: 10
14 years ago
Apr 26, 2010 12:33
Anyones guess about what Merkel is gonna talk about??? Good or Bad?
said
mulhouse, France
Posts: 2822
14 years ago
Apr 26, 2010 11:47
govt obligation debt market and to know if it gonna breal the 4 percent mark. my intermarket analysis on the tenure of safe haven and carry trade currrency tell me that we might be directed to the next level but i dont think it gonna be direct; a downward move is underway
the strengh of this liquidity program is still at its momentum.
said
mulhouse, France
Posts: 2822
14 years ago
Apr 26, 2010 11:42
we are at the 61 percent retracement from the top of 14000 to the bottom of 6500;
now everybody is gonna await a correction but one problem persist; and it is the depth of the injection liquidity program from thefed and central banks; one market to foresee is the government oblig