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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:

EUR

Discuss EUR in this thread
 
Stationdealer
UK
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
May 5, 2010 21:44
There only trying to hedge the market in their favours but they wont make the mistake to give off early signs of jobs growth that could hint calling the interest rate rise.
The job losses are going to stay with us for a very long period of time Unemployment is going to remain high. U.S. economic growth will slow to a 2 percent rate or less in the second half of the year. That implies continued slack in the goods market and in the labor market.
Ignore
Negril, Jamaica
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
May 5, 2010 21:01
job gains 100-135K driving small retrace into next week..before trend resumes southbound for euro
Stationdealer
London, UK
Posts: 715
14 years ago
May 5, 2010 20:55
I'm still a little pessimistic about the US job figures, and predicting job losses 100k plus.

Where as people who are looking to run along the Euro retracement the only strategy that comes to mind is positions placement, only if your broker lets you divide your standard margin lots in mini's, I Doubt it will break 127 by friday and then buying 0.2 on every 60-70 point dip and hold till 13230. The way Euro will develop in coming days is where every rally will be met by a 60/70 downward move to the previous sup/res level and thats where you can place buy lots.
But i will only recommend this strategy to people still hold a sell on euro from above 13300 / 13400.
I follow this strategy base on commodities such as Gold copper oil payoff in just few months its just phenomenon. But always go by fundamental and futures statistics.
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
May 5, 2010 20:32
@Chloe: Yes, credit to Ashraf - just about all his predictions on Euro have played out, even if the timing wasn't quite right. And people haven't always allowed for the inevitable retraces (I haven't always myself....that's been a learning curve, and probably will continue to be one). With 20-20 hindsight, a trend-follower who ignored fundamentals could have made money by selling in November 2009 and made an absolute killing. Add in the fundamentals, and it looks as easy as falling off a log. In practice, as we all know, it was never as easy or as obvious as that. This should probably be in the "Trading" thread though.

FWIW, I'd expect some sort of bounce, but I personally will not be putting any money on it. I do counter-trend sometimes, but not here. That's just me though.

montmorency
UK
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
May 5, 2010 20:12
@Coach: Agreed! - I'm finding the market in this condition more nail-biting than the usual choppy mess is. I don't think anyone really knows where it's going to end, technicians or fundamentalists.

@Radu: To offer an answer to what I think your question was: I do know some people who trade these sort of patterns on the 60 minute chart, and regard them as significant. However, with the proviso that they are supported by other indications, e.g. the pattern is occurring at a significant level, e.g. pivot or turning point, confluence of a significant Fid level, and probably other things I can't think of at the moment.

They do seem more reliable on daily and weekly charts, but in practice, in my experience, are not as easy to trade on those time-frames as one might think. When I started taking more notice of fundamentals, I stopped taking so much notice of them, but I do watch them for pullback indications....just a sort of indication of the natural "pulse" of the market, as it were, without necessarily taking them all that seriously.
chloethebull
Canada
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
May 5, 2010 20:12
can i get some thoughts on long eurusd...im thinkn there might be a bounce up but the way the media is acting over the greecs an euro situation(which should be priced in by now but obviously its not lol)im not sure how low it could go,were already at levels ashraf was calling for by mid summer..just looking for a solid trade..gl thanks
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Negril, Jamaica
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
May 5, 2010 20:10
nfp will be good #, will add some risk notion to currencies for euro's many 100-165 pip retraces, before trend resumption for sub 1.2500 and lower
Stationdealer
London, UK
Posts: 715
14 years ago
May 5, 2010 20:05
oh monty monty monty behave :P

but i did managed to find two good read

America's Failed Dollar Strategy, Greek Debt Crisis Will Slow the Yuan's Advance http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article19200.html
and
Euro in Decline, Possible Headwind for Gold GLD ETF http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article19189.html which also coincides with what Ashraf has mention earlier.

Coach
Singapore, Singapore
Posts: 43
14 years ago
May 5, 2010 19:47
@Mont, with fundamentals like what we had been experiencing for the last two days, the hammer is just like a falling japanese sword. try catching it!

Here we go again!!!
radu
bucharest, Romania
Posts: 203
14 years ago
May 5, 2010 19:41

Thanks Coach , Montmorency

I know what is mean a hammer , i just ask myself how important is it on 60 min chart (from a AT approach , excluding the fundamentals ) .


GL