EUR

Expect the Euro to make a nice up move today or tomorrow.

i have eurusd support @ 11827-30 on my charts.. it seems to fit the fibs slightly better and 11827 was a support month in feb2006, jan2006 monthly low pushed down to 11803ish so never broke the critical 118 level it was tested twice in 2006 , so question ashraf/anyone, could we bounce hard off this support level or will we punch through with conviction to test new lows could we see some sideways action around this level for a few days/weeks before any decisive break forms? interesting ashraf notes that loonie is doing well, so maybe we will have a fight for a 118 support breakdown if the dollar isnt in that great a shape (looking at jobs data its not looking very clever atall).
Also with euro fiscal/ sovereign debt tightening, could this now signal the end of the recovery, if so where does this leave china exports?? seems like globally the huge fiscal stimulus engaged by g20 last year , now seems to run aground, politicians have lost their nerve, but surely withdrawing fiscal stimulus this early is akin to what happened in the great depression ? ie a near 1.5yr rally followed by another leg down. Is it me or do the fundamentals and charts have an ominous air of double dip about them?

:D GunJack this bilderberg news never stops to amaze me, any how. I guess its best we know only what we choose to know. Thank God for choice!

While earlier this morning; European Banks' Panicky Deposits With The ECB Hit A Record High

Overnight deposits at the European Central Bank (ECB), which represent European banks losing confidence in the short-term creditworthiness of their peers, have hit a record high. This is shown by the Alphaville graphic below. http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/06/07/253101/ecb-deposits-at-record-high/

This is a worsening of one of the three signs that the European bailout has failed. The other two being the collapsing euro to record long-term lows, and credit default swap spreads for Eurozone periphery nations rising back towards new record highs.




From the Association of American Railroads: Rail Time Indicators. The AAR reports traffic in May 2010 was up 15.8% compared to May 2009 - and traffic was still 11.8% lower than in May 2008.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/06/rail-traffic-softens-in-may.html





Goldman Subpoenaed by FCIC after Sending Billion Pages of "Rubbish" to Panel


The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission (FCIC) is annoyed at the prospect of wading through billions of pages of "rubbish" that Goldman sent in response to an inquiry.

Here's the result:http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/06/goldman-subpoenaed-by-fcic-after.html








Morgan Stanley: There's A Wall Of New Money Which Could Easily Flee International Bond Markets

A massive amount of money has flowed into emerging market bonds year to date, as shown by the EPFR/Morgan Stanley chart.
Thing is, as indicated by the light blue line, returns have fallen hard since April, after a long and profitable run during the beginning of the year.

Morgan Stanley's Rashique Rahman:
Short-term market technicals are unfavorable, in our view. Even as positioning has started to improve, the prospect of fund outflows over the next 1-2 weeks is likely to weaken technicals further.
...
Emerging markets debt-dedicated funds recorded $77MM of inflows (0.1% AUM) for the week ended on June 2, 2010, reports EPFR. This means a small but hardly reassuring rebound after last week's outflow as EM fund total returns remain low.
Future pain for emerging market bonds could send a lot of investor money heading for the exits. Note that even before the inflows shown above, there were substantial inflows during 2009. Thus there is a large wall of money which could decide its time to reallocate itself should emerging market debt experience sharp negative returns. There's a lot of froth out there.
(Via Morgan Stanley, Market Technical Watch, Rashique Rahman, 7 June 2010)

Once we had a Lehman banks crisis and now we have national economies crisis... that's an order of magnitude higher. There are no efforts to be seen by nat govts of eurozone to stop the squandering

I don't understand the doom and gloom surrounding the euro....so it's depreciating against the USD?? I'm sure German exporters are delighted...there was a time when it traded 0.8 eur to a USD...