EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
How to improve your decision--makingh between Nasdaq100 and SPX by watching technicals in bond yields - Details in video description.
Bitcoin versus Miners Performance
As many of you know 2023 was kind to members of our WhatsApp Broadcast Group who snapped up shares in bitcoin miners, while 2024 has so far been more superior to Bitcoin than most of the miners...
View Hot-Chart..
Presently at 1.2375 with UK clearer and US investment house seen notable sellers in recent trade.
Cable down at 1.4840. Hasnt managed to recover from the earlier European central bank selling up around 1.4875.
China Vice Commerce Minister: Yuan reform will be gradual, controllable. Talk this morning PBOC bought USD/CNY to slow sell-off
German FinMin: Chnia move on yuan is welcome. Move could help tackle global imbalances
Greek EconMin: Expects to see positive GDP growth from mid-next year
ECBs Trichet calls for decisive progress in surveillance of governments economic policy Russia Today TV
Shanghai stock index closes up 2.9% in biggest daily gain in 4 weeks
S.Korea fx authorities buying dollars to curb wons strength
MAS buying dollars to curb singapore dollars strength
ECBs Stark: We have entered new phase of global crisis, sovereign debt crisis
ECBs Provopoulos Eurosystem buying securities because it does not consider Greek default a possibility WSJ
ECBs Noyer: Central banks have been very successful at fulfilling mandate aimed at price stability
ECBs Wellink: Positive development that euro slide has come to a halt MNI
Something of a typical Monday morning in Europe with the market struggling for any real direction. The greenback is generally marginally firmer, AUD/USD the exception. Things havent been helped by the weekend news that China is to relax the yuans peg to the dollar. Seems to me market is struggling somewhat to figure out what this news actually means for the forex markets.
EUR/USD down at 1.2400 from early 1.2425. Pairing initially rallied pretty well but ran into decent selling out of Russia. Fund selling was also noted this morning. The decline however has been slowed by sporadic sovereign buying, both Asian and Middle Eastern entities noted. The MAS and Bank of Korea were a couple of names mentioned.
Cable down at 1.4855 from early 1.4885. A major European central bank was seen selling decent amounts up around 1.4875/80. Focus is quickly turning to tomorrows budget and how it is perceived will play a major part in determining sterlings near term fortunes.
USD/JPY up on the day, for once seeing some fairly decent price action during the European morning. We started around 90.80 and spiked higher when stops through 91.10 were tripped. Were presently at 91.25.
On the other hand coming back to Euro game play I presume the down ward move in Euro will be subjective to fundamentals and will be played very on a completive scale. Monday's and Friday's again should be volatile while expect the in between the week consolidate mostly, if there is no significant data. Again rely more on Fundamentals rather than technicals. Meanwhile like i said Euro move down will be very competitive hence i expect EURGBP to become range bound between 82 -84. We might see a break out in that as tomorrow is the all important German IFO's and more importantly Annual Budget Report UK. Some time back I said in here that till 1.4915 is reached I will not sell before Budget, will it comes tomorrow and have managed to sell it from 1.4926, based on tomorrows rhetoric I will decide either to go bearish or not. For now it makes a good sell till 1.4720 or even lower to 1.4650.
In case euro does not sell at same pace as GBP at the time of the report then we might have 8400 break out in EURGBP. As long as Aussies holds it gains above 8635 for a week my bearish bias on Aussie will turn from bearish to strong bullish. This weeks pivots will hold out as strong and significant Support and Resistance levels. Picture changes completely if we close above the weekly pivot for most instruments on the markets. Treasuries Keep selling, they sold aggressively after the China PBOC news.
Last week markets were a little still indecisive 50/50 and played in a very strict controlled figures and price action. This week will be very interesting in determining the out come of the general market trends as we now also come close to end of second quarter, which i guess will be reflected by poor earnings for this years not sure if it will continue in Q3 or Q4 but certainly will be the case for Q2. That said what will be interesting to see during Q3 is if volumes pick up. If that happens the general optimism will back the markets in another short lived bull market who knows. None the less 2010 may well be known in years to come as the year when the free markets almost came to an end.
EUR/JPY up at 113.15 from early 112.90, having been as high as 113.40. Talk of stops through 113.50.
ECBs Wellink: Positive Development That Euro Slide Has Come To A Halt MNI
Inflation risks are still balanced
Wont exclude that developments in the financial markets have eroded confidence in short-term
Asian Monetary Authority Buying EUR/USD In Recent Trade
Talk an Asian monetary authority has been buying EUR/USD in recent trade. Theyve also been buying dollars against their home currency, so its a little bit of reserve diversification going on.
We sit presently at 1.2405.
Had this note written this morning but forgot to post it but posting it now.
The big breakdown level was at .8400 but as we talked about last week, there are some very strong technical signals emerging that a base could now be forming at .8200. Im looking for a clean break above .8400 as another signal that this base is forming. .8200/.8400 is the short-term range and Im playing it with a bullish bias for now.
AUD/USD: Technical Target .8880
The 61.8% retracement of the .9380/.8065 downmove comes in at .8880. The 100-day MA is at .8920 today.
EUR - EUR in Recovery as Risk Appetite Gets Boost from China
Global EUR-traders have awoken to a pleasant surprise this morning. The euro appears to be on its way to a healthy recovery thanks to China. Versus the US dollar, the euro has risen towards 1.2450 from as low as 1.2050 seen last Wednesday. The EUR/GBP has experienced similar behavior with a surge towards 0.8375 from as low as 0.8220 last week.
With European Central Bank (ECB) President Jean-Claude Trichet due to speak about economic and monetary policies before the European Parliament in Brussels, there is a chance that riskier assets, such as the euro, could experience another sharp incline if news proves positive.
There is a risk, however, that Trichet will incorporate Chinas latest announcement that it may make its currency more flexible and counter in order to bring more stability. While the euro zone wants an appreciation of the euro, the speed of its recovery could bring too much volatility which could lead to instability. Some analysts are expecting dovish statements to bring the EUR back into a corrective spin, but still bullish.
JPY - Will New Japanese PM Respond to China with a De-Valuation?
Even the safe-haven currency of the Japanese yen appreciated against the dollar in this mornings trading hours. As the USD took a dive following this weekends surprise announcements by China, the JPY actually appeared to take off alongside the other riskier assets, which is somewhat uncommon for the island currency.
Japans new prime minister may take the opportunity to see his currency decline as the global economy recovers; a sentiment he has expressed a number of times before his election as PM. His personal dissatisfaction with the current strength of the JPY has become a major talking point among political and economic analysts lately. Should any announcements come from Japan in that regard, traders would be wise to pay attention.
OIL - Crude Prices in Appreciation on Boosted Demand and Weak USD
Despite the US dollars surge, the price of Crude Oil may have been in a steady bullish channel before this mornings announcements from China. The US driving season has officially kicked off as many Americans enter summer vacation with muddled optimism. This has boosted demand for the black gold and the depreciation of the dollar has only added to the momentum already being built.
This weeks news events may impact Crude Oil prices more than many are likely expecting. A number of analysts have begun to anticipate a rise in demand for oil and as a result this weeks manufacturing and industrial data from across the globe will give a sneak preview into the level of global demand. Should this weeks figures disappoint, we could see the price of oil hit $80 a barrel and promptly bounce off back towards $75.
Technicals
EUR/USD
The pair continues to move higher and is now trading close to the short term resistance at 1.2450, the daily high from May 28th. A breach of this resistance level may carry the pair to the next short term resistance at 1.2525, with the long term resistance resting at 1.2670.
GBP/USD
The Cable is testing a speed line that branches off from the long term trend line on the weekly chart. The speed line begins on the week of January 17th. A breach of this trend line could propel the pair to the 1.5300 long term resistance level on the weekly chart.
USD/JPY
Most technical indicators show the pair trading in neutral territory at the moment. With no discernable signs of a major price correction today, traders may want to take a wait and see approach in order to determine what the best options are.
USD/CHF
The Relative Strength Index on the 8-hour chart shows the pair currently trading in oversold territory, indicating an upward correction should take place later today. This theory is supported by both the Bollinger Bands and Stochastic Slow on the daily chart. Traders are advised to go long with tight stops today.
The Wild Card
CHF/JPY
Most technical indicators are currently showing this pair trading well in overbought territory. These include the Relative Strength Index on the 8-hour chart a
A UK Telegraph is suggesting a split of the EMU into 'good' North 'bad' South and creating a super single ccy for northern nations.