Forum > View Topic (Article)
by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: May 28, 2009 15:40
Comments: 129
View Article
This thread was started in response to the Article:

Yield Shoots, Dollar Leaves

Soaring yields give no choice to the Fed but to increase the quantity of bond purchases at the expense of the dollar. Speculative Forex positions agree.
 
12345678910111213
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jun 4, 2009 14:44
briefly explain why eur/usd is a better measurement for the dollar than USD index.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jun 4, 2009 14:32
spec, eurusd is the curency pair most representative of the US dollar

Ashraf
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jun 4, 2009 14:10
ashraf,
the downtrend is based on an assumption of near term growth. i must say i only concerntrate on gbp/usd so when i talk about dollar strength i mean with gbp.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jun 4, 2009 14:03
spec, as long as global growth story has hpe and emerging mkts are doing well USD to remain in downtrend. i.e.eurusd channel is intact.

Ashraf
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jun 4, 2009 14:02
cougr, im closely watching the fx-equity relationship which remains valid. as i said before, we need sharp declines in equities for dollar to stabilize but such stability is only temporary. dollar bearish trend is extending deeply overall.

Ashraf
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jun 4, 2009 13:15
the problem is that price movements largely reflect surprises (news) that cant always be predicted. So in my option it is very difficult to accurately time longer trends. i think the dollar will be a bad bet after economies grow nicely not before. the current dollar bearishness (short term) is overdone and corrections will belarge this month to the dollar's benefit.
cougr
Australia
Posts: 101
15 years ago
Jun 4, 2009 13:02
Ashraf , there are many analysts that are currently quite bearish in regard to the US Dollar ,but I am wondering ,if the US equities embark on a significant decline in the short term would the US dollar break away from its inverse relationship with equities and follow them downwards or will it rise in opposition to equities. I am just thinking that if equities break down this would be dollar bullish .
Many thanks by the way for giving so generously of your time to everyone here .
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jun 3, 2009 13:38
Hi Taha, Stockcharts.com, Reuters and bloomberg are all good indices. According to Reuters,200-day MA for Dow is 8,751.

Ashraf
taha
Cairo, Egypt
Posts: 50
15 years ago
Jun 3, 2009 13:05
Hi Ashraf ,
I have a technical question , on my chart MA200 of Dow is 8669 , on your chart MA200 is 8765 and in stockcharts.com the MA200 is 8751 . Which one i should make it my indicator ? .
Taha
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jun 3, 2009 9:37
gary, quite important. but more important if it is still below it by end of week after payrolls.

Taha, stronger than expected PMI servies figures from the UK ust released now, which is powering up cable. resistance at 1.6850-80. but careful ahead of US payrolls on friday.

Ashraf
Report Reply
12345678910111213