EUR

The ECRI won't by now influence USDx but a possibility FED is gonna blow up its balance sheet
again by monetizing troubled assets will weaken USDx no matter how troubled EUR is .
Such a measure however will not foster economy conditions. Nevertheless such move could trigger a stock market rally , and that is what my bull trap thesis is based upon. Because such a rally is firstly fueled with liquidity , i.e. credit, but not money , and is orchestrated to suck in real good money. Same holds for EUR and GBP buying frenzy.

Its All Gone Risky! What A Dull Finish To A Exciting Week.

Great time to get fired up, on a Friday afternoon. Yeah right!

EUR/USD has broken through its hourly downtrend at 1.2361 and has probed close to yesterdays 1.2388 highs. 1.2385 is the high so far.

Classically, EUR/USD should pullback to retetst the trendline before making another stab at the highs.
A break of 1.2388 opens the way for a 1.2467/1.2490 area retest. Same time June 26 27 G20 meeting does leave the fate of most currencies to open higher or lower from its weekly close. So in a way its all still pointless. A break above 1.2460 or below 1.2340 could suggest a continual trend.

Cable overcame yesterdays highs and is now consolidating above those levels, looking for one last pre-weekend push toward key resistance in the 1.5045/55 region.

Surging oil prices and a relief rally on Wall Street after a deal was finally reached on financial regulation in the US Congress are helping underpin risk trades and due damage to dollar bulls. Equities are 0.75% firmer while US yields are steady. Oil is up $2.50. But still shows signs of weaker buying sentiment amongst trader groups.

USCCAD support at 1.0275, which is also a good signal area for buyers to get back to 1.0550

Analysts are watching how far and how fast the yuan is rising, and how that might affect prices, exports and the broader economy.

Copper and zinc were the most prominent gainers. Zinc may have benefited despite oversupply concerns, as its prices on both the London and Shanghai bourses plummeted in recent months to a point where market speculation was suggesting that some smelter output cuts are underway in China. Copper the clear winner for the day trades hitting its May's S&R at 109.45/50.

Silver maybe another seller in week ahead, daily charts does show room for upside a test of 19.850

Dont forget the 1.1900/1.2500 DNTIts still out there, as far as we know



EUPHEMISM OF THE DAY


Fed watchers say Mr Bernanke and his close allies at the Board in Washington are worried by signs that the US recovery is running out of steam. The ECRI leading indicator published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute has collapsed to a 45-week low of -5.7 in the most precipitous slide for half a century. Such a reading typically portends contraction within three months or so.
Key members of the five-man Board are quietly mulling a fresh burst of asset purchases, if necessary by pushing the Fed's balance sheet from $2.4 trillion (1.6 trillion) to uncharted levels of $5 trillion. But they are certain to face intense scepticism from regional hardliners. The dispute has echoes of the early 1930s when the Chicago Fed stymied rescue efforts.

This sounds conspiratorial, but it's probably true in that Bernanke is probably mulling anything that would help the economy recover, and more asset purchases have always been a possibility.
This morning's glum GDP report may push him to act even quicker.

@Said

Thank you,Merci,Shukran.
I'm short already and waiting for a pull back!

I think the resistance around 124 will not be broken in first run I gonna watch for long there
with first target 1245

@Said

You mean Down or up??
Thanks