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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:
EUR
Discuss EUR in this thread
if you have money take bloomberg as broker.
or for free CMC (MM but good), FxALL, fxcm, Interbankfx, Dukascopy,Bullcambfx(not broker but they provide MT4)
would u plz tell us what is the last high on eur ??
is 1.35 it's last station in going up
will it fall down to take buy psition ??
and so cable
Its quite interesting that in the last few months major currencies have peaked and sharply dropped as a result of political and macro interventions by central bankers and politicials alike.
Euro peaked last november, Dollar peaked in spring along with franc and now Yen peaked and is now being pushed down.
All this is a result of uncoordinated interventions - each key currency's macro managers are essentially trying to trigger their economies by devaluing their currencies.
If there was coordinated action, the results may be sustainable but all this intervention does is to create opportunites for traders and hedge funds.
The problems of Eurozone (20% of the world economy), US (another 20%) and Japan (10%) are mainly arising from loss of competitive advantages in manufacturing versus China (another 10% of the world economy) and to a lesser extent with the other BRICs.
The only way forward is improvement in the living standards of the BRICs via domestic consumption and appreciation of their currencies. Indirectly, this also means loss of jobs for millions in the developed world and decrease in their consumption and living standards.
Long term, industrial commodites are a winner along with oil.
US is in a tight spot - There is a logjam coming up in the fiscal policy with the republicans taking over the House and tighting coming from repeal of tax cuts. The Fed is making a big mistake, as usual, acting too less and too late.
The key to US growth is a slow devaluation of the dollar and the trade fight with the Chinease. Not sure when Obama will wake up to it. Chinese moles like Tim Geither should never have been hired in the first place. He was a key contributer to Lehmans demise.
Probably the best bet right now is Swiss franc and may be Gold
Indeed wait for 1.35
this point will be breaked to another higher point ??
for now.. pullbacks would likely be limited to 3290/3300 level b4 pushing higher... only break below 3265 level would see bigger pullback to 3160/80 area...