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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:
EUR
Discuss EUR in this thread
If Spain falls - defaults- Euro falls. If Spain defaults the outmost stupidity of euro politics reaches the surface and is eventually seen, even ( ok. with probability 0.5) by Merkel and money genius Schaeuble. It is that Eurozone banks are the largest holders of PIIGS bonds.
There is no such in japan and not at all in USA. You see now how wise it is that US traesury stuffs
not only China and Japan, but FED with treasuries. Which US bank holds US treasuries value of 500 bln? Not one US bank does. Deutsche bank holds 500 bln of PIIGS bonds .
So the FED acts as firewall EZone has no firewall but some firefighters.
move back above 3450 level could mean bigger correction toward 3700/50 level first b4 next leg lower to 2800 level... Euro bears would definitely not wanna see it move past above 3800 level
If we test the downside first as i expect... 2800 level would likely provide solid support initially for crawl back up to 3700(where it will decide the fate of Euro direction... 1.45 or 1.20) level.... move back above 3800 level would be a red light signal for longer term Euro bears...
How to set 55 weeks MA in platform. ( Iam using Instaforex)
Thanks in advance
at most
however the rescue is close flash gordon aka Godfather of Oligarchs Putin approaching...
well we have to endure a little of mafia gang shooting Al Capone aka Oleg Deripaska fights
Don Corleone aka Roman Abramovic for the most profitable deals in EZone scrap bonds..
but then..
Putin concedes single currency zone possible for Russia and Europe
RBC, 26.11.2010, Moscow 17:47:54.Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin accepts the idea of a single currency zone for Russia and Europe in the long term. "It is entirely possible that Russia will share a single currency zone with Europe in the future. I do not rule out this idea," Putin told journalists in Berlin today.
Speaking of the investment climate in Russia and Europe, the Russian PM responded to German Chancellor Angela Merkel's remark about European investors facing certain problems when operating in Russia. "I agree that Russia has some problems, but our investors have to overcome many more obstacles in Europe than yours in Russia," Putin said. "We should build our cooperation so that it works as a two-way street," he added.
Also notice on the fundamental analysis Ashers will often say if such and such transpires then cad or whatever will do this. Its no different with technical analysis to employ this approach to trading. Let's face it, if N.Korea did something really seriously stupid with their nukes our analysis would take a hit and any economy who happened to be down wind at the time would get seriously modified.
No harm in expressing a general opinion for where the euro might visit in the months ahead subject to this, this and this but its frankly of little value for trading.
Here ends my sermon :-)
bail out EUR. It is however unclear when they do what they must do. Unlike FED QE2 ECB actually has to print money.
http://www.meilleurduchef.com/cgi/mdc/l/fr/recettes/paris_brest_ill.html
back above 3800 level would shift focus back to the highs and 4400/4500 level..(very unlikely at the moment but still open to the possibility)
monthly close well below 2800 level would signal resumption of downtrend and the next significant level would be 1.2000 level... (would think about it once it closes below 2800 level...)
don't really see Euro falling out of the range(2800/3700) at least within december....