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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 2338
Forum Topic:

USD

Discuss USD
 
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Qingyu
manchester, UK
Posts: 1763
13 years ago
Dec 31, 2010 18:16
take your advise, dave.

close all positions, wait and see.

^-^
Callum
Singapore
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Dec 31, 2010 18:12
Given EUR+GBP make up the majority of the USDX, remember late 2009 Ashraf been calling EURUSD 1.32? It may have taken several months for this to play out, but DID happen, despite several squeezes and interventions, and noise from GS, et al.

How is it different this time?
Not much....
Except:
- Risk and EURO zone issue is finding itself prop commodities instead of USD, benefiting commodity based currencies
- QE2, still needs to play out
- Seriously Big news like PIIGS and Dubai not been a play during this Santa rally.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
Dec 31, 2010 18:04
There is a lot of technical evidence for major reversals any time soon on most the usd pairs. DX could take off to the moon. Just have to resist fading the current trend prematurely. Personally I normally await some degree of confirmation for trend changes on whatever timeframe I'm trading. Trying to catch exact highs and lows was always a mugs game in my early years of trading. OK time to relax now.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
Dec 31, 2010 17:42
Also remember back to after the US election followed by fed mtng. Ashraf alerted DX would now take on binary behaviour.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
Dec 31, 2010 17:40
Chloe, the immediate fundamentals for the euro are pretty appalling as many commentators (and catnip) have been saying. You have been focused on a small timeframe within a particularly notorious month for manipulations. Take a look at the euro index daily chart to get a better perspective.
Qingyu
manchester, UK
Posts: 1763
13 years ago
Dec 31, 2010 17:32
imo, usd must strong because china do not appreciate RMB.

i thought recent movement can explain by self-reflection, which is another great idea originally from karl marx, and well known by soros.
chloethebull
Canada
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Dec 31, 2010 17:23
i recall last yr goin into the close of 2009 the dollar was rising an the eur was the new whipping boy with strong fund&tech backing the move but when 2010 hit there was a very sharp reversal an the eur climbed an the dollar fell.mayb with the dollar falling in the end of 2010 mayb 2011 will have the dollar rise :)..trying to put a positive spin on the painfull trade:) . i still can;t figure out the strength in this latest move in risk appitite tech i see why u guys are following it but the fund don;t make sence if anything markets should be slightly up or flat given the latest move outta china strong us data..ect..anyways gl pl:)
chloethebull
Canada
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Dec 31, 2010 17:10
being a newbie is any shocked @ this huge move down in the dx,seams a lil over done but like i said very new to this but an never thought with thin markets a move this big could be reach let alone sustained.another example i guess in the strength of the big boys:(..thanks
Qingyu
manchester, UK
Posts: 1763
13 years ago
Dec 31, 2010 17:02
i guess usdx will rebound from 79. if not, i will close all my usd long.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
Dec 30, 2010 17:35
@Gunjack, yep I reading the move down from Aug09 high an ending diagonal 5th in the move down starting July07. Being a diagonal the blighter could truncate. If it finishes to book it should take out the jan 09 low at 118.80. I shall let the market take me out but intervention could prove painful on slippage.
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