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Displaying results for week of Oct 15, 2023

Never via a Bear Steepener

Oct 20, 2023 20:39 | by Ashraf Laidi

Why do I post photos with animals late on Friday when the market is hurting and the world is burning?  In each yield curve de-inversion preceding last 5 recessions (1981, 1990, 2001, 2008 & 2020), NONE of them occurred by way of bear steepening. All 5 emerged by way of bull steepening. The chart below shows US 10-yr yields are still below 2-year yields (inverted yield curve) but are quickly narrowing the gap ie the curve is steepening, or de-inverting, or gradually ending its inversion, or normalising. There are two ways in which yield curve steepens (or normalises): Narrowing the gap with both 2 and 10 yr falling (bull steepening) as was the case prior to the last 5 recessions, and; Narrowing the gap with both 2 and 10 rising (bear steepening). The case today is way more dangerous for the economy and the markets. I will discuss all this in more detail at tomorrow's London Trader Show 

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Never via a Bear Steepener - Bear Steepener W Chart (Chart 1)

See you Saturday at London Trade Show

Oct 20, 2023 18:05 | by Ashraf Laidi

Just in case you miss my presentation and panel discussion at tomorrow's London Trader Show and would like to meet and chat (and get a signed copy of my book), I'll be around at the DTT booth Booth T10  Looking forward to seeing you then. (More details here). 

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See you Saturday at London Trade Show - Dtt Banner London Show Oct 2023 (Chart 1)

See you Saturday at London Trader Show

Oct 20, 2023 10:29 | by Ashraf Laidi

I hope to meet you at the London Trader Show held tomorrow (Saturday) along a host of traders, analysts and educators. I will start with an Open Stage presentation at 10am "Updating our Intermetals Analysis vs USD", followed by my participation on the Technical Analysis Panel at 11:20 am.

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See you Saturday at London Trader Show - London Trader Show Banner Oct 2023 (Chart 1)

Why I Chose Yesterday out of all Days

Oct 17, 2023 10:31 | by Ashraf Laidi

Yesterday, I posted a video on Youtube about the Half Life of Currencies, its meaning and benefit to Bitcoin. The video contained a clip from my panel at the Crypto Summit in Madrid 3 months ago. So why out of all days, did I choose to post the video only yesterday...less than 1 hour before Bitcoin jumped 10% (see chart below showing % daily gains) on the Blackrock ETF rumour. Yes, Bitcoin ended up retracing back half of those gains, finishing the day +5%. But the initial gain was 10%, something we have seen only once this year back in March. For a perspective on +10% daily moves, each of 2021 and 2022 had exactly FIVE (5) days of +10% moves.  So why out of all days, I chose yesterday to post that video?  "Who cares Ashraf, just tell us when BTC will break $35K"

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Why I Chose Yesterday out of all Days - Bitcoin Move And Youtube Video (Chart 1)

What's a Currency Half Life نِصف عُمر العملة؟ ما هو؟ و لماذا يحدث؟

Oct 16, 2023 10:22 | by Ashraf Laidi

What's a half life of a currency? Explanation below نِصف عُمر العملة؟ ما هو؟ و لماذا يحدث
What's a Currency Half Life نِصف عُمر العملة؟ ما هو؟ و لماذا يحدث؟ - Youtube Cov Bitcoin Half Life Button (Chart 1)