Intraday Market Thoughts Archives

نقدم لكم  الأخطاء الشائعة التي يجب تجنبها في تحليل نموذج الرأس والكتفين مع شرح الشروط التي يجب توافرها عند تشكيل النموذج بإستعمال أمثلة الين و الذهب. الفيديو الكامل

US corporate results continued to beat estimates for a range of industries with Facebook and Microsoft flexing muscle and the latter's market value reaching $1 trillion to join Amazon and Apple. Amazon beat earnings estimates, while JPY and gold were the only gainers vs USD as indices decline for the 2nd straight day, The Canadian dollar is little changed following Wednesday's plunge triggered by the BOC's dowgraded forecasts for interest and growth. US durable goods orders beat estimates but US jobless claims jumped 37K, the highest in 19 months due to the effect of Easter and Passover holidays. Today's Premium trade is currently 150 pts in the green.

(فيديو المشتركين يفحص صفقة اليوم) إغتنام التذبذب المستقر

Wednesday's 40-pip fall in the Canadian dollar probably isn't a fair indication of how the BOC was received. The loonie was higher against the euro, aussie and kiwi and a mid-performer overall. The CAD lows of the day came immediately after the statement as the modest hawkish bias was removed. GDP estimates for this year were also cut to 1.2% from 1.7%.

Poloz, however, offered his usual positive spin in the press conference and the loonie bounced almost all the way back. He highlighted risks on both sides of the forecast and skepticism about some recent negative data.

6 out of 10 During the Holiday

As Japan starts its 2-week holiday known as the Golden Holiday -- the period between end of April and the first week of May, here are some stats: Since 2009, the yen has strengthened versus the US dollar in six out of ten years i.e. USDJPY fell during this period in 6 out of the last 10 years. Note how USDJPY hardly moved for 7 days since Apr 15 before spiking to 112.40 on Wednesday & dropping to 111.38 on Thursday and stabilizing near 111.60s. The Premium USDJPY trade remains open.

The bigger move in FX remains that of the US dollar. Much of is via the tumbling euro  after softer German and French economic surveys.The dollar didn't get any help from Treasuries, with yields across the curve down 4-5 basis points. Cable struggles around 1.29, but key support remains at 1.2780.

يستمر الدولار الأمريكي في الحفاظ على قوته مقابل معظم العملات حيث ارتفعت مؤشرات الأسهم الأمريكية إلى مستويات قياسية جديدة. ولكن لماذا يبقى زوج الين الياباني بالدولار الأمريكي بدون أي حركة؟ التحليل الكامل

The US dollar continues to ride a tailwind from rallying stocks on upbeat earnings and forecasts. US indices are off after the S&P500 closed at a new high. DAX30 and US crude oil are at fresh 6-month highs and EURUSD drops back below 1.1200 after a disappointing IFO survey. The Bank of Canada decision is up next. Below is the Premium members' video, focusing on equity indices and gold.

The most frequent answer to why the US dollar is at the forefront of currencies remains related to equities. It's still early in earnings season but the numbers so far have been beating estimates and (more importantly) a number of large companies have raised forecasts for the year. Fears about a consumer slowdown appear to be overstated and international investors were buying up USD assets in responds.

The stock market opened slightly higher but climbed as the day went on and the S&P 500 rose 26 points to 2933 – a closing record and just 7 points from the intraday high from September.

The growing implication is that the Federal Reserve isn't going to need to cut rates. The market continues to price in a 56% chance of a cut before year end. As that falls, the US dollar may continue to strengthen unless growth fears elsewhere also fade.

One spot to watch next is the Bank of Canada. The central bank hinted that it will cut its growth forecasts, and some economists are looking for Poloz to also drop the mildly hawkish guidance. Nonetheless, Canadian macro data has held up relatively well all year and oil price are suddenly a CAD tailwind. Poloz has a long history of upbeat rhetoric so even if the statement takes a more-neutral turn, he could help the currency in the press conference by stressing that the H1 slowdown is temporary and that the outlook for US and Chinese growth is improved.

In response to the US announcement to end Iranian oil waivers aimed at reducing Iran exports to zero, Saudi Arabia reportedly is ready to raise production. Oil is off by less about 50 cents from its 6-month highs (Brent high was $74.70 and US crude high reached $66.19). The DOW30 Premium trade was closed at 26580 for 300 pt gain. USD strength emerges across the board with the USD index at its highest since March 7th. US new home sales jumped 4.5% in Mar, suprising estimates for a 3% deccline. All commodities are in a slump with the exception of oil.

Earlier in the week, the Washington Post reported that US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will announce on Monday that countries importing Iranian oil will be told to stop or face US sanctions. A similar announcement was expected in September but the US balked and gave several countries waivers, allowing Iran to continue exporting 2 million barrels per day. That surprise was largely responsible for the collapse in crude in Q4.

If the report is correct, the US will announce that all Iran exports as of May 2 will be subject to sanctions. Certainly some will still slip through to non-US-friendly countries but much of the remaining 1.25 million barrels per day of current exports will be cut.

We're watching two things along with the headlines. 1) The WaPo report says Pompeo will simultaneously announce offsets to Iran exports from Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Neither has enough spare capacity to make up the shortfall but that could limit the headline risk. 2) How importers respond. India remains a heavy importer of Iranian crude and though they are unlikely to risk the wrath of US sanctions, they do have some leverage.

Saudi Arabic is careful to repeat last year's miscaculation when it hiked production to a record (exceeding 11 mln barrers per day) only to see Trump's backtracking off the sanctions lead to the intensification of oil's autumn plunge.

$72.68 for Brent is the 61.8% retracement of the Q4 plunge. A break (and close) above that line would be a bullish development that could target as high as the Oct 2018 high of $86.74.

At the same time, oil exporters such as CAD, NOK should benefit while the Turkish lira could face pressure as an importer that's already struggling with its current account balance and may be facing a run on FX reserves, according to an FT report on Wednesday that didn't get the traction it deserved.