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Crude prices fell 5% as traders sold-the-fact on a 9-month supply cut extension. The US dollar was the top performer while the Australian dollar lagged. Japanese CPI is due up next.

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الإسترليني و النفط: إلى اين؟ (فيديو للمشتركين فقط)

Management is the art of communication and that extends to market management as well. A month ago, a nine-month extension of OPEC/non-OPEC supply cuts would have been a welcome surprise in the energy market.

Instead, stories began to circulate about a six-month extension. That was followed by talk of a nine-month extension and it was eventually capped off by speculation about a 12-month extension or deeper cuts. By the time today's nine-month extension was announced it underwhelmed and WTI crude fell to $48.80 from $52.00. Brent had a similar 5% fall.

The challenge now is to separate the disappointment trade from the fundamentals. At current levels, oil is well below the Dec-Feb range and is nearing the March bottom at $47-48. It's still far above May's $44.00 low.

An offshoot of the oil trade is USD/CAD. That pair rose 65 pips on Thursday but that's less than the bulls would have hoped given the 100 pip drop the day before. You have to wonder if CAD has been hit by so much bad news – and with such a massive net short – that there is no fuel left for the bears.

Switching gears, the week winds down for Asia-Pacific traders with a Japanese CPI as the main highlight. The April numbers are due at 2330 GMT and expected to be up 0.4% year-over-year but flat excluding fresh food and energy.

Another event to watch is a speech from the Fed's Bullard at 0200 GMT. He's said previously that he doesn't think another hike is necessary but wouldn't be opposed to one more.

Finally, the RBA's Richards is in a panel presentation at 0430 GMT.

The FOMC minutes showed that officials aren't dead-set on hiking in June and beyond. That led to a US dollar lagging Wednesday while in contrast CAD led the way after the BOC statement hinted that policymakers are growing more optimistic about growth. Next, it's onto comments from Evans, Sakurai and Debelle. A new GBP trade has been issued in addition to the 5 existing Premium trades.

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USD/CAD fell a full cent on Wednesday as commentary from the Fed and BOC diverged. Two weeks ago, a Fed hike was seen as a done deal but soft data has clouded the picture. The minutes said that most policymakers wanted to hike soon but generally agreed that it would be prudent to make sure the recent slowdown in growth is only a blip before hiking again. And that was before soft retail sales and CPI.

Plenty of economic data remains to help shape the Fed's view but the broad half-cent drop in the US dollar after the minutes showed doubts creeping in. The CME Fedwatch implied probability of a hike remains at 82% but that will be sensitive as top-tier economic data begins to roll in.

In contrast, the BOC was pessimistic early in the year but has been bombarded with strong economic data. Poloz largely brushed it off but in the latest BOC statement he changed tack and acknowledged improvements in housing, consumer spending, jobs and business investment.

The statement said the neutral stance was 'still' appropriate but that time qualifier shows it won't take much more to tilt the balance to hawkish.

The Canadian dollar climbed across the board despite a 20-cent dip in oil. The pair will be back in focus on Thursday with the OPEC decision due. It's been widely communicated that a 9-month extension is coming but the risks remain to the upside until the headlines are fully digested.

Before the focus shifts to OPEC, central banks speakers from around the world will take centre stage. It begins at 0125 GMT with the Fed's Evans. He could single-handedly beat back the dovish Fed sentiment. He's followed 5 minutes later by the BOJ's Sakurai. Then, at 0800 GMT, the RBA's Debelle speaks in London. The New Zealand budget at 0200 GMT could also be a market mover.

With Trump overseas the focus on politics is fading at the same time as the June 14 FOMC meeting comes into focus. The New Zealand dollar was the top performer while the euro lagged as it finally gave up some ground. Kuroda and Australian construction work are up next.

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The US dollar caught a bid late in New York trade on Tuesday as Treasury yields moved higher. Yesterday's speech from Brainard generally avoided monetary policy except for a nod towards soft core inflation in the Q&A. The thinking was that she would have said something more if she was planning to argue against a June hike. The same could be said about another dove in Kashkari. He said he wants to see more economic data before making up his mind.

The thinking in the market is as follows: If the dovish contingent at the Fed hasn't been swayed yet, there's no hope of swinging the moderates and hawks in time for June 14.

There is still time for a shift before the June 3 blackout period starts. A full slate of top-tier data is due before then and one to watch will be the FOMC minutes on Wednesday. They will likely skew hawkishly because they're from May 3, when officials had more confidence about inflation and growth. But if the Fed wants to sneak in a hint about patience, it's an opportunity.

Before that, the BOJ's Kuroda speaks at 0000 GMT in Tokyo. Expectations are low for any kind of shift from the BOJ at the moment so any hint might enliven JPY trading.

For AUD traders, the Q1 construction work report is due at 0130 GMT. The consensus is for a 0.5% decline to compound a 0.2% drop in Q4 2016. Any miss is likely to move AUD as the RBA keeps a close eye on data.s

. الإرهاب في بريطانيا و الأسواق الانتخابات. ميزانية ترامب. النفط و الإنتاج الأميركي و إيران

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Saudi Arabia's oil minister made a trip to Iraq Monday and shored up support for a 9-month quota extension. On Monday, the kiwi was the top performer while the pound lagged. A speech from the Fed's Brainard later could be telling. There are 5 Premium trades currently open.

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Saudi's Al-Falih traveled to Iraq amidst reports that Baghdad, Oman and Kuwait only wanted a six month extension to OPEC quotas. His plan worked and late in the day, Iraqi officials said they were on board. 

What's puzzling is that Iraq has been one of the worst violators of the initial production levels as it seeks to recover lost ground due to war. Al-Falih was confident a nine-month deal is coming so that could move the discussion towards deeper cuts in what's a possible upside risk on Thursday when the decision is due.

The wildcard remains Iran. Leaders there have been less-enthusiastic about cuts and the government wants to regain market share. On the topic of oil, the Fed's Kaplan talked about US share on Monday and he was highly optimistic about the amount of investment and potential yield from technological improvements in US shale. He also hinted that breakeven points are coming down. A huge risk for 2018 is that US supply continues to climb and it forces OPEC to pump flat-out.

On monetary policy, Kaplan's comments where characterized as typically-hawkish by the newswires but it was a mischaracterization. Indeed he said he still favors 2 more hikes this year but he repeatedly warned that inflation numbers had raised warning signs and that he will be watching closely.

At the moment, the Fed calendar until the June 3 blackout is quiet in terms of heavyweights. That's likely to change as talks are added but at the moment, the only Fed governor on the schedule is Brainard, who speaks at 2330 GMT today. She's a dove but s also one of the first policymakers who tipped the March hike. If she drops any hawkish hints, it could send the dollar skyward.

As we enter the new week, the euro has gained big in five of the past six days. Early moves are small with GBP and AUD losing some ground. CFTC positioning showed a fresh extreme in CAD. Euro jumps to 1.1230s after Merkel says Germany's rising trade surplus is a result of the low euro, which is caused by ECB policies.  The Premium GBPUSD long was closed at 13035 on Friday for 185-pip gain and a new Index trade was opened before the close.  Here is the USD analog that Ashraf referred to back in January here and here.

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The market is slowing falling in love with the euro. Macron's win and the continued troubles for Trump along with the idea that the ECB and Eurozone economy are turning the corner has made for a powerful move in the past week.

EUR/USD has climbed from 1.0850 to 1.1200 and it finished last week on the highs. Technically, the pair continues to carve out six-month highs as it nears the US election night high of 1.1300. An inverted head-and-shoulders bottom targets 1.14 but we will have a closer look at the fundamentals in the day ahead.

The week starts with Japanese trade balance and Swiss sight deposits. Note that the calendar is quiet in the US with only Harker and Kashkari to liven things up. Canada is off on holiday.

CFTC Commitments of Traders

EUR +37K vs +22K prior GBP -33K vs -47K prior JPY -60K vs -36K prior CHF -21K vs -15K prior CAD -98K vs -86K prior AUD +6K vs +26K prior NZD -12K vs -11K prior

It's the second week of big positioning shifts. The net Canadian dollar position is most-extreme on record. What's even more incredible that only two months ago, CAD was net long 22K and at that time the loonie was trading very close to where it is right now. The takeaway is that the vast majority of that position is close to underwater. With the OPEC meeting this week, the risks are high.

Otherwise, the yen move was a big one and the market has soured on the Australian dollar. With the euro grabbing some momentum and the spec market still relatively neutral, there is plenty of fuel to burn.