Comparison of Sep & Jul Fed Statements
The Fed kept rates unchanged with an unambiguously dovish statement, focusing on weakening inflation, rising market turbulence and a new reference to foreign developments. The dot forecasts pointed to slower growth and lower core inflation and lower fed funds projections. The only hawkish dissent to the decision was from Richmond Fed's Lacker, but this point was made moot by not only due to Lacker's well documented hawkish stance, but also by the fact that the dot plot showed one Fed member expecting negative rates, even if this member is the widely dovish Minneapolis Fed's Kocherlakota.
New way to worry about the worldThe most important part of the Fed statement is the following: "Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term." Still, we expect the Fed to tighten by year-end; we continue to look for the initial rate hike to come in December."
We made the case against a Fed hike since the start of the year and our latest argument was clarified today on here (see final 3 paragraphs): Subscribers to our Premium trades are sitting on a long EURUSD trade at 1.1210 and long EURCAD.
Jun 22, 2023 16:46 | by Ashraf LaidiI mentioned last week on here on how and why both gold and USD are falling together. Since then, the trend accelerated alongside another detail.
Mar 17, 2023 21:28 | by Ashraf Laidi.
Jan 11, 2023 10:57 | by Ashraf LaidiIf the DAX40 maintains its habit of extending 13% above its 200 DMA, then current upside may extend to as high as 15300, just below the 76% retracement of the decline from the Jan 2022 high to...