ECB Scenarios

by Ashraf Laidi

Jul 26, 2018 11:51

The ECB decision is at 1145 GMT (12:45 London), but it's a foregone conclusion that interest rates won't change. Instead, focus on messaging and press conference 45 mins later.

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Focus on any rewording of the calendar guidance. Draghi is in a tough spot as he tries to retain an upbeat stance on the economy and keep a rate hike at this time next year on the table without driving the euro excessively higher. In the past he has been a masterful messenger, but the tweaking and messaging has gotten so precise that he finds himself in a near-impossible spot with a high risk of sending the wrong signal. If he can navigate the choppy waters, the underlying bias may be toward euro strength in the day ahead if Juncker's deal isn't picked apart.

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