93% of shares in the ?&?500 are trading above their 200-day moving averages a level not seen since May 2011. The indicator (200-DMA participation) gives an idea on the internal strength of the underlying index, by highlighting the degree of participation of individual shares in the current rally. In addition, the S&P500 went 49 weeks without falling more than 10%, which is the longest since the 60 weeks elapsing between March 2009 and April 2010.
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The odds of a Fed rate cut in January fell from 17% earlier in the day to 11% after the release of better than expected Services ISM and somewhat disappointing JOLTS survey on jobs openings. The chart below shows the graphs for expectations of a Fed rate cut for January (Green) and March (White). Focusing on the green graph, see how the probability of a January rate cut fell from 27% in mid December to 11% today, during which the DXY rose while gold also rose. Here is what I think: Even if the Fed ends up holding rates unchanged, expect gold and equities to be propped by an upcoming announcement from Donald Trump revealing his pick for the Fed chairmanship. Looking ahead. Keep an eye on $4400 and $70 as support for gold and silver respectively, with 1.1645 foundation for EURUSD. For equity indices, expect more gains into mid January for now. Take a look at AAOIhere
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Latest Hot-Chart - Jan 05
EURUSD Next
If EURUSD holds Monday above 1.17, it will show a hammer candle, supported above the 100-day moving average.
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Understanding US Dollar 2018 2019
I created this chart in December 2024, pointing to the importance of understanding some of the fundamental events shaping USD Index between 2018 and 2019. Why 2018 and 2019.
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