Ashraf Laidi on CNBC After Greece Elections - June 17, 2012
Jun 18, 2012 6:42
In a 2-part interview, Ashraf says why EURUSD is expected to extend its gains as part of the corrective bounce after Greece's New Democracy won nearly 30% of the votes and will lead a collation government which is likely to be made up of New Democracy and third-place Pasok.
Ashraf distinguishes outright QE vs. Operation Twist, highlights the shape of EUROIS spread, gauges EURUSD technical and distinguishing PIIGS & BRICs foundation.
The lack of any unfavourable event detracts attention of Central banks of worrying about: 1) delivering "liquidity" solutions (such as currency swaps) and places Greece back onto worrying about securing its 1bn tranche, which was withheld after May's inconclusive elections, and; 2) covering its 3.9 bn interest payment to the ECB due in August. DOES THIS MEAN we extend our RIsk-On Positioning? Find out our latest Premium Insights on EURUSD, AUDUSD, GBPUSD, Gold, & Crude Oil. DIRECT ACCESS TO these trades is found here:http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/sub01/access/?a=647 NONsubscribers can join here:http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01
Now that both gold and silver broke well below key fibonacci levels following the jump in global bond yields, the selloff could accelerate depending on the extent, which stocks correct. We have learned this year, each time indices fall by more than 1%, metals move lower as asset managers liquidate long metals positions to stabilize their portfolios. We know the #1 economic priority (not an exageration) of the US administration is to stabilise bond yields in order to cap the interest rate on servicing the ballooning US debt. Gold and silver need to save the immediate support of 4500/oz and 75.40s/oz . The 23.6% retracement follow at $4450/oz and $73/oz respectively. Keep an eye on 10 year US bond yields, especially the possibility of a breakout of the wedge, which could trigger 5.0% in a swift manner. The market consequences of such an event would be cataclysmic.
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