Ashraf Laidi on CNBC After Greece Elections - June 17, 2012
Jun 18, 2012 6:42
In a 2-part interview, Ashraf says why EURUSD is expected to extend its gains as part of the corrective bounce after Greece's New Democracy won nearly 30% of the votes and will lead a collation government which is likely to be made up of New Democracy and third-place Pasok.
Ashraf distinguishes outright QE vs. Operation Twist, highlights the shape of EUROIS spread, gauges EURUSD technical and distinguishing PIIGS & BRICs foundation.
The lack of any unfavourable event detracts attention of Central banks of worrying about: 1) delivering "liquidity" solutions (such as currency swaps) and places Greece back onto worrying about securing its 1bn tranche, which was withheld after May's inconclusive elections, and; 2) covering its 3.9 bn interest payment to the ECB due in August. DOES THIS MEAN we extend our RIsk-On Positioning? Find out our latest Premium Insights on EURUSD, AUDUSD, GBPUSD, Gold, & Crude Oil. DIRECT ACCESS TO these trades is found here:http://ashraflaidi.com/ products/sub01/access/?a=647 NONsubscribers can join here:http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01
Wednesday's FOMC release of the dot plot and Warsh press conference pushed bond market to price rate higher probabilities for a 25-bp rate hike in September and a full chance of a similar rate hike in October. Note how the white and green graphs have moved from below zero (yellow circle) to above above zero, shifting from rate cut to rate hike expectations. The green graphs shows 0.86%, implying an 86% probability of a quarter point hike in September, accompanied by a rise in DXY and decline in gold. The 2nd chart highlights the importance of the June 15th gap, whose floor stands at 4245/6, presenting a solid short-term support, which held successfully yesterday.
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