أشرف العايدي على سي ان بي سي العربية -- 23 يوليو2013
Jul 23, 2013 16:42
Traders must also bear in mind that the tapering of purchases is a mere "cooling" in the pace of easing, rather than tightening. After all, asset purchases remain a form of easing, or money supply expansion, which has swelled up the Fed balance sheet to a record $3.5 trillion. There is a vast gulf of market movements and expectations between easing, neutral and tightening. We remain well in the midst of policy easing.
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Gold traders must keep an eye on bond market expectations for interest rate hikes. Yes rate hikes. The graphs below show rate hike probabilities for July (while) and September (green), with the latter currently 68% probability for a 25-bp rate hike. See how gold fell and DXY rose when the probability graphs rose. The weaker than expected US jobs report on Thursday triggered a temporary rally in gold and decline in rate hike probabilities, but markets are now repricing probabilities. DXY remains above the 100-week MA, while gold is unable to regain the 55-week MA.
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