Bernanke resorts to the familiar method of reiterating the Fed's willingness to do more if required by the labour market without necessarily signalling any imminent action. Euro is the biggest victim of Bernanke's silence, losing nearly a full cent to reach $1.2205 after Bernanke's text hit the wires. The single currency faces increasing macro, fiscal and structural challenges deemed required to extend its decline below $1.20 and towards the $1.18 levels of 2 years ago when Eurozone problems were far less pronounced than they are today.
Short of an aggressive round of outright asset purchases from the Fed and a 3rd LTRO (this time at 0.75%), the single currency's days above $1.20 may become numbered. The question then remains, to what extent will any central bank-driven euro bounce remain short-lived? And with a stimulus package from China becoming more imminent, chances for coordinated global interventions become inevitable.
Now that both gold and silver broke well below key fibonacci levels following the jump in global bond yields, the selloff could accelerate depending on the extent, which stocks correct. We have learned this year, each time indices fall by more than 1%, metals move lower as asset managers liquidate long metals positions to stabilize their portfolios. We know the #1 economic priority (not an exageration) of the US administration is to stabilise bond yields in order to cap the interest rate on servicing the ballooning US debt. Gold and silver need to save the immediate support of 4500/oz and 75.40s/oz . The 23.6% retracement follow at $4450/oz and $73/oz respectively. Keep an eye on 10 year US bond yields, especially the possibility of a breakout of the wedge, which could trigger 5.0% in a swift manner. The market consequences of such an event would be cataclysmic.
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Understanding US Dollar 2018 2019
I created this chart in December 2024, pointing to the importance of understanding some of the fundamental events shaping USD Index between 2018 and 2019. Why 2018 and 2019.
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