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Results: 141 to 150 of 1,000
Results: 141 to 150 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: Election Scenario #1: Blue Wave
by Adam Button | Oct 30, 2020 20:06
In the run-up to the election we will look at the most likely outcomes and how....The first scenario is a "blue wave"; a scenario where Biden wins and....There are currently 4 existing Premium trades open, short FB at 275 (now 261)....nbsp; Below is the Premium video for subscribers, ahead of US Polling Day...nbsp;....This scenario would give Democrats the most power, similar to Obama's first....Given deep partisan divisions, it's a rare opportunity to be able to deliver....In this election, it's also the most-likely scenario as measure by polls and....That said, it's a narrow probability, in the Senate in particular where....Given that and the high uncertainty around the election, this outcome is not....For risk assets, this is the most-bullish scenario...It would mean a large stimulus package as soon as Biden takes office in January....In FX, the US dollar would generally weaken and emerging market currencies....On the other border, CAD may see some initial softness on worries about....With the dollar weakness and the promise of deep deficit spending, precious....How strongly Biden can deliver on his promises may depend on how strong the....A one-seat majority in the Senate would leave every initiative at the mercy of a....A larger wave would raise the odds of more-aggressive measures and that could....In particular, Biden has promised to reverse Trump's corporate tax cut....On corporate taxes, Democratic House leader Pelosi hinted Thursday that might....Meanwhile, taxing higher incomes is unlikely to hurt the market but fears of..
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Intraday Market Thought: Sic Transit Gloria Mundi
by Adam Button | Nov 25, 2020 23:15
The death of Maradona saddens us and it's a reminder that even the greats....On that note, the dollar lagged again Wednesday despite a risk averse tone....A wave of US economic data ahead of the holiday highlighted several continuing....The chart below raises doubts over gold's direction in absolute and....1) Housing boom...The boom in housing isn't a uniquely American phenomenon but it's....New home sales in October rose 999K compared to 975K expected...The prior was also revised higher and sales are up 41% y/y...This is a secular trend but also highlights the greatest power of all in....2) Trade....One of Donald Trump's most powerful promises was to improve US trade but the....There was an $80...2B deficit, which was nearly in-line with estimates but the larger picture is....That steady flow of money out of the US is a powerful force and a long-term....3) The power of government spending....The US, UK and Canada are the three biggest spenders during the pandemic....That spending kept a human tragedy from turning into an economic one but in the....Wednesday's PCE report showed income dropping a surprise 0...7% versus +0...4% expected...On the flipside, there's renewed talk of US student loan forgiveness...4) Manufacturing strength....We're still in the dark about the underlying strength of the manufacturing....We recently got two Fed reports that showed some softening but core....One of the big surprises of the pandemic has been how well that sector has held..
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Intraday Market Thought: China FX Pass-Through Conundrum
by Adam Button | Dec 9, 2020 18:03
Metals pulling back after Chinese CPI inflation fell into negative territory....Ashraf repetitively warned Premium members about the need for Gold/Silver....But the 75 support held up once more, prompting renewed downside in both....That's what we call the currency-pass through (more below)....nbsp;Elsewhere, the risk trade continues to improve after a slow start to the....Ashraf issued a new Premium trade moments ago, backed by 2 charts & 5....nbsp;....In year-over-year terms, Chinese CPI fell 0...5% in November...That's the first fall in 11 years and it was much softer than the flat....A big reason for the miss was food prices, which fell 2...0% in large part due to a fall in pork prices but even without food, CPI would....1%....The miss highlights some lingering questions about the Chinese and global....Despite its rapid handling of the virus, the Chinese consumer is struggling...Through October, Chinese retail sales are down 5...9% year-to-date compared to 2019...The broader economy is strong but that's mainly owing to vast government....One line of thinking is that the Chinese consumer simply retrenches in times of....That may be the case but it may also be a sign that the global consumer might....An alternate thought is that China may be on the leading edge of the post-covid....nbsp;Large importing economies such as China with strengthening currencies tend....nbsp; The Chinese yuan on Wednesday rose to the best levels against the US....How the export-sensitive economy responds to the strengthening currency....For now though the focus will be on Boris Johnson's trip to Brussels...Negotiations are in the end-game and Johnson has played his usual game of....It's worked before and a deal is in everyone's interest at a delicate..
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Intraday Market Thought: Onto Plan B.1.1.7
by Adam Button | Dec 22, 2020 16:22
The US dollal is once again the top perfomer of the day as indices struggle....Ashraf has a few thoughts on XAU and XAG below...A new, more-transmissible covid variant circulating in the UK called B...1...1...7 gave markets a genuine scare to start the week but the subsequent recovery....A new premium trade was posted before Monday's NY cash close...The trade was issued last week to our WhatsApp Broadcast Group members...nbsp;....There are far more questions than answers about the new covid varient but....It explains why UK cases have continued to surge despite the latest lockdowns....The Spanish variant earlier in the year was first thought to be a similar....It's now clear that the quick spread of that virus was a result of many....What's different this time is that this strain has 17 mutations compared to....Scientists believe it incubated in a single, immunodeficient patient in a&....Secondly, this strain is competing with other ones in the UK, where there have....On Nov 18, a total of 28% of London cases were this variant...That had risen to 62% by Dec 9...On the economic side, it means that more countries will need to go into March-....It risks a deeper contraction in Q1 GDP and a slower recovery, especially in....What it's not likely to change is the vaccine...US officials Monday said 50m Americans could receive a first dose of the....Other countries are also moving forward vaccine timelines...Given the strength of the bounce in risk assets Monday, the message is that so....That said, we will be keeping a close eye on UK cases in the coming days along....Ashraf is closely watching the Gold/Silver ratio and whether it retests the....Thus, any rebound from, 73 to 75 will mean fresh selling in XAUUSD (to 1863/4)....80s) until we hit the 75 ceiling in the Mint Ratio...nbsp; ..
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Intraday Market Thought: GBP Party & China Yield Spread
by Ashraf Laidi | Feb 9, 2021 17:20
Ashraf tells us it's time for G10-FX traders to start monitoring the US-....Here is a chart below of US-China 10 yr yield spread vs DXY...There are leads and lags but it's worth adding to your FX toolbox...nbsp; Meanwhile, indices attempt at maintaining the risk-on mood...This is especially visible in GBP/USD, which has risen to a fresh high since....GBP is the 2nd highest performing currency YTD (after NOK)....The dollar is broadly weaker this week so far...CFTC positioning data finally showed a crack in the crowded euro long...nbsp;....If this was a 'normal' year then all the talk in the FX market might be....The UK's Brexit deal and pivot away from austerity puts it in a spot to....It's the best performer so far in 2021 despite being ravaged by a new....The market everywhere is laser-focused on the post-covid economy and the UK is....Data Tuesday from Barclaycard showed overall consumer spending down 16...3% y/y with spending in pubs and bars down nearly 94%....There is tremendous pent-up demand in the UK that's been doubly held down....We're now months away from the end of both and the UK is also preparing....To be sure, cable is benefiting from broad USD weakness today but there are....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +137K vs +163K prior...GBP +10K vs +18 prior...JPY +45K vs +45K prior...CHF +15K vs +10K prior...CAD +14K vs +14K prior...AUD -1K vs +1K prior...NZD +12K vs +15K prior...We've been lamenting the lack of enthusiasm in speculative forex futures....The brief moment in the sun for the euro is looking more vulnerable even if the....20 has been bought.
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Intraday Market Thought: Subtle Clarida Pivot May be Lasting
by Adam Button | May 18, 2021 16:07
Gold continued to break higher, while USD depeened its selloff...This is unlikely to change after a subtle change from the Fed vice chair....NZD and GBP are leading currencies at the expense of JPY and CHF...Below is the alert to the WhatsApp Broadcast Group of the breakdow in....0, implications of which were forwarned in Friday's gold video...nbsp;....Fed vice chair Clarida spoke at a web conference Monday and at first blush....He responded by saying that because he expected it to rise due to transitory....Few people picked up on the comment but it could be an important shift at the....There are clearly worries about inflation but officials are nearly....Barring a change of heart, that makes incoming inflation data almost....So 'significant further progress' is really an employment metric...Though that's a deliberately vague target, officials continue to cite 8....By that measure, would 4 million jobs be a reasonable benchmark? If so, that....3 million per month ahead of Jackson Hole, where many expect a tapering....That's an extremely high bar and it raises the risk that the Fed waits....That's the kind of thing that would add further fuel to the precious metals....It was also notable that the market reaction to inflationary metrics in the....Both the 'prices paid' and 'prices received' indexes hit records....On the whole, Monday's price action was modestly negative for the US dollar...Is this an early sign that markets will begin to weigh employment more heavily....Keep in mind that even with the huge upside surprise in inflation last week,....We may have seen the worst already...nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: Fed Hastens, BoE Hikes, ECB Balks
by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 16, 2021 17:41
Market reaction to Wednesday's FOMC decision differs from most other....This is especially relevant for bond yields and metals...So why did USD and bond yields fail to break higher despite the...Fed's decision to double its tapering from $15 bln to $30 bn to....And more on what we did with our WhatsApp Broadcast Group after the FOMC....The chart shows how the red graph of OIS curve (Overnight Index curve) disagrees....Said differently, the red graph links the red dots of median projections for....Thus, the red graph for 2023 is substantially lower than the yellow....nbsp;....The reason markets assert the US economy cannot handle that much tightening is....As opposed to demand-driven inflation, which lift up prices thanks to....Even if some of the inflation ends up remaining (sticking), the US consumer....nbsp;....Both of the Bank of England decision to hike rates in the midst of a....The BoE rate hike's short-lived positive impact on GBP clearly indicate....nbsp;....Minutes before the Wednesday FOMC decision, we informed our WhatsApp....The gold trade was also complemented with long XAGUSD at 22...05 targeting 22...35 and opened another trade subsequently...The signals basis we used for entering metals during the FOMC/Powell noise....nbsp;....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: From Flation to Stag & Back
by Ashraf Laidi | May 11, 2022 19:36
Readers of this column went from vaccine "experts" to a Russia....So let's move to the more controversial subject of inflation...Whether it's transitory or not is not the question...Today's release of US April CPI showed a long-awaited pullback, printing....3% y/y from 8...5% in March-- the first slowdown since August...Here's how it may play out...The CPI pullback emerged largely from slowing energy prices and retreating....Since the former is expected to push back up due to rebounding gasoline....The challenge ahead for traders is to figure out when markets shift their....nbsp; The simultaneous accelerating decline in bond yields and tech stocks....Read on…....Gold rebounded $25 from 1832, while bond yields resumed the week's decline....Apple hit a new low for the year, Amazon broke its 6-year trendline and Netflix....The stocks-bonds damage to “SuperPortfolios” is officially....nbsp;....Recession rumblings were amplified today after CPI went from 8...5% to 8...3%....Imagine what noise the “stag” part will do when “flation”....3% to 8...0%....or below 8...0%....Let's not even look at the month-month figures...nbsp;....Don't forget the yield curve metric...Many think we need to see another round of inversion to spell recession...Wrong...Any continued steepening from current levels will mean the doves are coming....But if the 3-5 spread soon drops below zero from its current 0...06 and 2-10 nears 0...10 from 0...28, then it might take a bit longer...nbsp;....Currency developments also bear watching...German-US 10 yr spread has continued to stabilize alongside EURUSD, and EURGBP....Then you have gold, which is fighting to hold above its 200-DMA and August....nbsp;....We're not sure what will come first: A sub 5...0% inflation print in the US, or an official recession declaration from the....But here's my latest call: By the time US CPI drops near 6%, we'd see....Metals will get their next wave of vigour once markets realise consumer....nbsp;....nbsp; ..
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Intraday Market Thought: Nearing Total Yield Curve Inversion
by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 12, 2022 15:43
As growth concerns clash with further tightening from the Fed, all “....Is the 10yr/3mth so important? How long does it take for the US to enter....The chart below shows that three of four yield curve measures have inverted...The 10yr/3mth has yet to fall below zero...But it's worth noting that since not all economic slowdowns are alike, the....nbsp;....Let's take the 2020 recession as an example-- which the US National Bureau....By summer 2019, three of the four measures shown in the chart went into....The duration of the inversion can also give an idea about the length of....nbsp;....More relevant and unique for today's dynamics is the contrast between short....One thing worth noting, which is weighing on commodities--including....This especially poses a drag on metals...I've written about this last month in this piece...As we head into tomorrow's release of the June CPI, it's worth focusing....nbsp;....Finally, if we look at the duration between the point of inversion in the....Does this mean an inversion of the 10yr/3mth this summer would imply the....nbsp;....About that Fed Pivot...Since "pivot" means a U-turn or reversal, then "Fed pivot"....e...rate cuts...But buyers of treasuries, yen and metals may have different ideas as to what....Yet, we should weigh the meaning in terms of market impact...I would consider a pivot to be an official pause from rate hikes, or, a....nbsp; Any of the last two could give considerable boost to treasuries, yen....Do not limit your thinking to only “rate cuts”....Finally, by the way these cycles are shortening, we could well enter a....nbsp;....Look at USDJPY vs US 10-year yields...What do you notice?..
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Intraday Market Thought: Narrating or Ignoring Reversals
by Ashraf Laidi | Oct 13, 2022 20:53
Beware of narratives aimed at explaining market reactions, but it's crucial....The sharp selloff in indices, metals and bonds lasted no more than 20 minutes,....CPI was indeed hot, but core goods prices were unchanged...What about the action in FX and metals? Any bear market rallies there?....Soaring from the abyss, but Friday always a test....Before we start with FX and metals, it's crucial remind of the implications....We saw last spring several instance when market closed up above 2% to return....Today's bounce in the S&P500 bears more significance as the index is....5% earlier in the futures session...Most impressively, the rally in the S&P500 emerged to rally of the abyss....It also managed to close above the 200-week MA of 3600...nbsp;....The other remaining test is Fridays...The last time major indices closed Friday in the green was on September 9th...Today's bullish engulfing candle certainly suggests a Friday up session...But next week is a whole different test...nbsp;....Yuan, DXY and Gold....USDCNH (often a better proxy for USD than the DX index) continued to fail at....20 resistance, coinciding with the twin highs from Aug 2019 and May 2020...The chart shows what happened to gold and DXY after each of those peaks...A similar story ensued at the double top of Dec 2016 and November 2018...nbsp;....Let's not forget how silver has embarked a on a 6-week uptrend of higher....nbsp; Combine this with the inflection points of CNH and XAUUSD and we bulls....China observers may also add president Xi Jinping would want a firm currency....What if Xi announces a spending-lend growth plan, powering global risk and....DXY shows a similar lower highs formation seen in US 10-year yields or....nbsp; But we've seen that pattern before—when DXY stabilizes at the....The more pertinent details are found below...USDJPY finally broke above its high from August 1998 high of 147...66 by one pip...The pair is up 22% so far this year, and up 44% from the 2021 lows...The Bank of Japan may have benefited from a shift in attention away from it....Whether the BoE's emergency gilt-buying program is a stark reminder of....nbsp;....But first, will the BoE stick to its decision to end the 13-day gilt-buying....Failure to reverse his tax cuts could turn the BoE into the BoJ...nbsp;..
