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Intraday Market Thought: Oil Spill Shrugs the Rest

by Adam Button | Mar 30, 2020 23:50
Each of equities indices, bonds and the US dollar rallied to start the week,....Is it a sign of a bottom, or quarter-end rebalancing? The Australian dollar was....China's official PMIs are due up next...In the Premium Insights, Wednesday's USDJPY short at 111...20 hits final target 108...00 on Friday, while the DOW30 short and EURUSD long were closed on Friday for....nbsp; Below is Ashraf's video for subscribers on Gold/Silver/Indices open....We're hesitant to take a signal from Monday's trading because of uarter-....On the fundamental side, we highlighted the Dallas Fed yesterday and it was far....0 vs +1...2 previously...Comments in the report highlighted strains on cashflow and worries about....The area is being hit particularly hard because of low oil prices...On that front, Brent hit at 17-year low of $21...65 and WTI fell below $20 once again...In Canada, oil is trading at less than $4 and that showed in the loonie...However it's clear that quarter-end flows were a factor in trading on the....Flow-driven trading may continue into Tuesday as the new month gets underway....From Ashraf's Tweets....A few tweets from Ashraf on seeking bottom signs...On sector-driven rally...On why Lombardia...Ashraf's Gold Poll....Increasingly the market will turn to data as March numbers begin to roll in...One coming up at 0100 GMT is the China PMI for March...The manufacturing number is forecast to rebound to 44...8 from 35...7 and services to 42...0 from 29...6...Real-time numbers like car sales and vehicle traffic show a spotty rebound in..
Intraday Market Thought: Johnson Hospitalised, Oil Awaits Treatment

by Adam Button | Apr 6, 2020 22:59
Sterling slipped after UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson was moved to the....The Australian dollar was the top performer while the yen lagged...As both gold and silver rally, the Gold/Silver ratio has fallen to as low as 107....The RBA decision is up next...A new Premium trade was posted at the close of the NY session, backed by 3....nbsp;....A statement from 10 Downing said PM Johnson was taken to the ICU for....Cable quickly fell 80 pips to 1...2215 on the report but held the lows from earlier in the day on the report in....In the US, the S&P 500 rallied 7% and broke around a cluster of resistance....That level was the late-March high and the 38...2% retracement of the coronavirus drop...A Fox Business news report indicated that Congressional leaders had briefed....5 trillion stimulus package that's in the works, and will be ready by month....It's another sign of the endless appetite for spending from governments....It's also another reminder of the costs that will need to be paid one day,....In OPEC news, the battle lines for cuts on Thursday continue to harden with more....They have to know that it's virtually impossible to execute a....If that's the case, then the entire call is a public relations exercise...Given the stakes, this would be an odd time for that kind of stunt...A more-likely outcome is a cut and a statement that says they expect the US....When that invariably doesn't happen, they will have cover to cheat or hike....Oil fell nearly 8% on the day...Looking ahead, the RBA is entirely expected to leave rates unchanged at 0...25% in the 0430 GMT rate decision...The latest minutes said there was no appetite for negative rates and the....In normal circumstances it would be far too early to anticipate any kind of....A statement indicating that the pace of bond buying could increase could weigh..
Intraday Market Thought: Fed, RBNZ Manoeuvre Around Zero

by Ashraf Laidi | May 13, 2020 15:57
Fed Chair Powell manoeuvred his way around the negative rates verbal....The Kiwi is the biggest loser of the day after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand....That's good news for our Premium NZD trades, opened earlier this week...Here's open access to this week's Premium Video...إنتهاز كسر التداول العرضي...Powell: "With interest rates at ZLB and no desire to use negative interest....rdquo; Basically, Powell is seeking new ways to say negative rates are not an....Even hawkish Cleveland Fed's Mester is personalizing the issue, saying "....Meanwhile, the RBNZ increased bond purchases to a NZ$ 60 billion,....quot; For currencies, the implications of one central bank going to zero may....USDX fluctuations are at their tightest since early February, keeping key USD....GBPUSD, however, merits a close look as it breaks below 1...2250s...More importantly, EURUSD is undergoing some key RSI patterns, seen only in....nbsp;....We said in yesterday's IMT “we're watching … the NASDAQ'....the semiconductors index 1800 resistance ”, hours before indices began....There was no trade issued to Premium subscribers, but a suggested trade was..
Intraday Market Thought: Stocks Jump, Yields Soar on Jobs, ECB, Corona Narrative

by Ashraf Laidi | Jun 5, 2020 18:06
Thursday's bond yield break out was joined by broad and intense rallies in....US 10-year yield jumps 43% for the week, its biggest rise on record and double....DOW30 shot-up more than 3% to break further away from its 200-DMA, while....The US dollar extended its longest losing streak in three years and EURUSD....أهم سؤال في الاسواق...The new wave of buying intensified in Friday's Asia session on a....Let's look at some trading questions below...In the US, the bond market painted a positive picture in a different way as....In that case, it's a sign of dwindling demand for safety as the....Given that the Nasdaq hit a record high, the trade has already run a great deal....That paradigm continues to draw dollars out of the US...Trading Questions....The question I raised in this week's English and Arabic videos as to whether....This now helps us figure out whether sell EURUSD for the 1...10s, or wait for further pullbacks to buy for higher targets...Gold traders watch the 1677 support and bonds fixated on the 100-DMA at 1...01%, with the highest daily RSI since October 2018.
Intraday Market Thought: Hotspot Hopscotch

by Adam Button | Jun 15, 2020 15:15
Rising virus cases in a number of US and China hotspots have put risk trades on....CHF and EUR are the highest performers, while gold and silver attempt to recover....CFTC positioning data showed euro net longs at the highest in two years...It is also interesting to mention last week'snote from JP Morgan's....The re-opening narrative is running into a hard truth: That many people won'....Those who are overzealous might face a second wave...The US remains the main focus and a number of primarily southern states....Florida reported record numbers on Saturday and Texas hospitalizations....Headlines from those hotspots began to move the market late last week but it&....The overall number of new cases on Saturday hit a record of 142,672 with....However Saudi new cases hit a record Sunday and deaths in Iran hit a two-....Tokyo reported the most cases in 5 weeks with half traced back to nightclubs...Even China is slipping backwards with Beijing forced to lockdown part of the....In a sense, none of this is particularly surprising so what happens next will be....Early-week indications are soft but certainly not insurmountable...Kolanovic's latest note....Marko Kolanovic, JPM's quant guru said last week “With the recent....nbsp;“Positioning in equities did not increase significantly and China....rdquo; Kolanovic, who's had a solid track record in calling major troughs....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +96K vs +81K prior...GBP -24K vs -36K prior...JPY +17K vs +33K prior...CHF +2K vs +9K prior...CAD -23K vs -33K prior...AUD -37K vs -41K prior...NZD -11K vs -13K prior...The specs largely disbelieve the reopening story but the enormous long-..
Intraday Market Thought: Election Scenario #1: Blue Wave

by Adam Button | Oct 30, 2020 20:06
In the run-up to the election we will look at the most likely outcomes and how....The first scenario is a "blue wave"; a scenario where Biden wins and....There are currently 4 existing Premium trades open, short FB at 275 (now 261)....nbsp; Below is the Premium video for subscribers, ahead of US Polling Day...nbsp;....This scenario would give Democrats the most power, similar to Obama's first....Given deep partisan divisions, it's a rare opportunity to be able to deliver....In this election, it's also the most-likely scenario as measure by polls and....That said, it's a narrow probability, in the Senate in particular where....Given that and the high uncertainty around the election, this outcome is not....For risk assets, this is the most-bullish scenario...It would mean a large stimulus package as soon as Biden takes office in January....In FX, the US dollar would generally weaken and emerging market currencies....On the other border, CAD may see some initial softness on worries about....With the dollar weakness and the promise of deep deficit spending, precious....How strongly Biden can deliver on his promises may depend on how strong the....A one-seat majority in the Senate would leave every initiative at the mercy of a....A larger wave would raise the odds of more-aggressive measures and that could....In particular, Biden has promised to reverse Trump's corporate tax cut....On corporate taxes, Democratic House leader Pelosi hinted Thursday that might....Meanwhile, taxing higher incomes is unlikely to hurt the market but fears of..
Intraday Market Thought: Sic Transit Gloria Mundi

by Adam Button | Nov 25, 2020 23:15
The death of Maradona saddens us and it's a reminder that even the greats....On that note, the dollar lagged again Wednesday despite a risk averse tone....A wave of US economic data ahead of the holiday highlighted several continuing....The chart below raises doubts over gold's direction in absolute and....1) Housing boom...The boom in housing isn't a uniquely American phenomenon but it's....New home sales in October rose 999K compared to 975K expected...The prior was also revised higher and sales are up 41% y/y...This is a secular trend but also highlights the greatest power of all in....2) Trade....One of Donald Trump's most powerful promises was to improve US trade but the....There was an $80...2B deficit, which was nearly in-line with estimates but the larger picture is....That steady flow of money out of the US is a powerful force and a long-term....3) The power of government spending....The US, UK and Canada are the three biggest spenders during the pandemic....That spending kept a human tragedy from turning into an economic one but in the....Wednesday's PCE report showed income dropping a surprise 0...7% versus +0...4% expected...On the flipside, there's renewed talk of US student loan forgiveness...4) Manufacturing strength....We're still in the dark about the underlying strength of the manufacturing....We recently got two Fed reports that showed some softening but core....One of the big surprises of the pandemic has been how well that sector has held..
Intraday Market Thought: China FX Pass-Through Conundrum

by Adam Button | Dec 9, 2020 18:03
Metals pulling back after Chinese CPI inflation fell into negative territory....Ashraf repetitively warned Premium members about the need for Gold/Silver....But the 75 support held up once more, prompting renewed downside in both....That's what we call the currency-pass through (more below)....nbsp;Elsewhere, the risk trade continues to improve after a slow start to the....Ashraf issued a new Premium trade moments ago, backed by 2 charts & 5....nbsp;....In year-over-year terms, Chinese CPI fell 0...5% in November...That's the first fall in 11 years and it was much softer than the flat....A big reason for the miss was food prices, which fell 2...0% in large part due to a fall in pork prices but even without food, CPI would....1%....The miss highlights some lingering questions about the Chinese and global....Despite its rapid handling of the virus, the Chinese consumer is struggling...Through October, Chinese retail sales are down 5...9% year-to-date compared to 2019...The broader economy is strong but that's mainly owing to vast government....One line of thinking is that the Chinese consumer simply retrenches in times of....That may be the case but it may also be a sign that the global consumer might....An alternate thought is that China may be on the leading edge of the post-covid....nbsp;Large importing economies such as China with strengthening currencies tend....nbsp; The Chinese yuan on Wednesday rose to the best levels against the US....How the export-sensitive economy responds to the strengthening currency....For now though the focus will be on Boris Johnson's trip to Brussels...Negotiations are in the end-game and Johnson has played his usual game of....It's worked before and a deal is in everyone's interest at a delicate..
Intraday Market Thought: Onto Plan B.1.1.7

by Adam Button | Dec 22, 2020 16:22
The US dollal is once again the top perfomer of the day as indices struggle....Ashraf has a few thoughts on XAU and XAG below...A new, more-transmissible covid variant circulating in the UK called B...1...1...7 gave markets a genuine scare to start the week but the subsequent recovery....A new premium trade was posted before Monday's NY cash close...The trade was issued last week to our WhatsApp Broadcast Group members...nbsp;....There are far more questions than answers about the new covid varient but....It explains why UK cases have continued to surge despite the latest lockdowns....The Spanish variant earlier in the year was first thought to be a similar....It's now clear that the quick spread of that virus was a result of many....What's different this time is that this strain has 17 mutations compared to....Scientists believe it incubated in a single, immunodeficient patient in a&....Secondly, this strain is competing with other ones in the UK, where there have....On Nov 18, a total of 28% of London cases were this variant...That had risen to 62% by Dec 9...On the economic side, it means that more countries will need to go into March-....It risks a deeper contraction in Q1 GDP and a slower recovery, especially in....What it's not likely to change is the vaccine...US officials Monday said 50m Americans could receive a first dose of the....Other countries are also moving forward vaccine timelines...Given the strength of the bounce in risk assets Monday, the message is that so....That said, we will be keeping a close eye on UK cases in the coming days along....Ashraf is closely watching the Gold/Silver ratio and whether it retests the....Thus, any rebound from, 73 to 75 will mean fresh selling in XAUUSD (to 1863/4)....80s) until we hit the 75 ceiling in the Mint Ratio...nbsp; ..
Intraday Market Thought: GBP Party & China Yield Spread

by Ashraf Laidi | Feb 9, 2021 17:20
Ashraf tells us it's time for G10-FX traders to start monitoring the US-....Here is a chart below of US-China 10 yr yield spread vs DXY...There are leads and lags but it's worth adding to your FX toolbox...nbsp; Meanwhile, indices attempt at maintaining the risk-on mood...This is especially visible in GBP/USD, which has risen to a fresh high since....GBP is the 2nd highest performing currency YTD (after NOK)....The dollar is broadly weaker this week so far...CFTC positioning data finally showed a crack in the crowded euro long...nbsp;....If this was a 'normal' year then all the talk in the FX market might be....The UK's Brexit deal and pivot away from austerity puts it in a spot to....It's the best performer so far in 2021 despite being ravaged by a new....The market everywhere is laser-focused on the post-covid economy and the UK is....Data Tuesday from Barclaycard showed overall consumer spending down 16...3% y/y with spending in pubs and bars down nearly 94%....There is tremendous pent-up demand in the UK that's been doubly held down....We're now months away from the end of both and the UK is also preparing....To be sure, cable is benefiting from broad USD weakness today but there are....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +137K vs +163K prior...GBP +10K vs +18 prior...JPY +45K vs +45K prior...CHF +15K vs +10K prior...CAD +14K vs +14K prior...AUD -1K vs +1K prior...NZD +12K vs +15K prior...We've been lamenting the lack of enthusiasm in speculative forex futures....The brief moment in the sun for the euro is looking more vulnerable even if the....20 has been bought.