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  • Intraday Market Thought: Geopolitics Join Trade Talks

    by Adam Button | Oct 9, 2019 15:01
    Geopolitics Join Trade Talks Chart Tuesday's speech from Fed Chair Powell is currently being displaced by....This means more swings in indices and no clear trends in FX...US crude oil remains well below the 54...00 cap ahead of inventories...nbsp; far frBut it's worth mentioning Powell's speech ahead of....The Fed put may finally be reversing on markets as Powell showed some reluctance....The yen and franc are the weakest currencies of the day as indices find a....The pound remeains weak as the message from the EU-UK noise is increasingly....نشاط المؤشرات و هدوء العملات فيديو للمشتركين...Fed chair Powell mentioned 'data dependence' seven times in his....One major factor that the Chairman highlighted was geopolitical risk and he&....Should there be some kind of positive conclusion, or even a face-saving punt....On the flipside, if talks break down, risk trades will certainly be hit hard...That leaves a negative skew ahead of an event that's largely binary, with....The market sensed that on Tuesday and it reacted to more signs of unease between....The S&P 500 fell 43 points and commodity currencies softened...Powell also touched on balance sheet expansion and unambiguously highlighted....That may be debatable but the important point is that the Fed doesn't....We may hear more about what's coming in the FOMC minutes due at 1800 GMT.

  • Intraday Market Thought: GBP Breaks out, USD Hurt

    by Adam Button | Dec 4, 2019 14:38
    GBP Breaks out, USD Hurt Chart Broadening USD selloff after the US ADP survey on pvt sector payrolls posted its....Broad GBP strength exploited USD selling to hit the 1...31 for the 1st time in 7 months...The latest swings in economic data highlight the opacity in the global....As USDX breaks below its 100 DMA, Aussie slides after GDP...The BOC decision and ISM non-manufacturing are due up next (see more....nbsp; The English Premium video is posted below, recoding during the....A clear narrative has developed in markets: Global economies were slipping....In addition, hopes for a US-China trade truce have set the stage for a pickup in....What undermines the narrative is how spotty the data is on all of it...It's clear there was a slowdown that accelerated in Q2 but it's....It makes sense that it's tied to the trade war but China has also kept....In China and the US household spending and other parts of the economy have held....On Wednesday, China's November Caixin services PMI rose to 53...5 from 51...1...Unlike manufacturing, it never fell below 50...At about the same time, Australia reported that Q3 GDP was up 0...4% q/q...That was softer than +0...5% expected but Q2 was revised a tick higher so it essentially netted out...Within the data trade was robust and added 0...2 pp which is not what you would expect in a global industrial slowdown...At the same time, household spending slowed and that was a probably related....Ultimately, we're stuck with the incomplete picture and trying to sort....It's natural for businesses to pullback with all the trade war....Markets are also still struggling to adapt to a world where bonds yield....In the short-term we will continue to focus on incoming economic data along....Up next is the Bank of Canada decision and ISM non-manufacturing reports...USD bulls need services ISM to come in within expecations of 54-54...7 after today's poor ADP print and Monday's release of manuf ISM....Look for the BOC to take a page out of the RBA's book by retaining a dovish..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Why the Euro Broke Higher

    by Adam Button | May 28, 2020 22:27
    Why the Euro Broke Higher Chart EUR/USD finally cut through resistance in the 1...1000/20 zone on Thursday as the euro led G10 FX...USDX is on course for its biggest monthly fall of the year...The Canadian and US dollars were the laggards as risk trades dipped late on....The April US PCE report and comments from Powell are due on Friday along with....The Premium Dow30 short was stopped out at 25700, while the EURUSD long is a few....Today's Premium FX trade is currently 130 pips in the green...Below are screenshots from Ashraf's WhatsApp Broadcast Group, whose members....nbsp;....The thinking in the market at the moment is that economies are opening up and....There are reasons to doubt that and to fear a second wave but that's....And let's not forget the bigger than expected EUR 750 bn loan package from....US markets staged a remarkable rally, but EU has more upside ahead...Italy's MIB is just testing the 38...2% retracement of the pandemic fall and that comes after a week of strong gains...If everyone is going to open up and recover, then the catch-up trade is....Needless to say there are undoubtedly differences because the eurozone doesn&....On net, European stock markets are better value right now than US markets....Again, it would be easy to make arguments against that statement but....10...The pair rose as highs as 1...1093 before a sag late in the day...Risk trades were hit and stock markets reversed into negative territory when....All evidence points to some ineffectual sanctions against individuals and....There's no set time yet for the press conference and there's a high....The day will also feature the April US PCE report and the focus will be on....7%....Fed Chair Powell will also speak at 1500 GMT...This is his last opportunity to send a message ahead of the blackout period and..

  • Intraday Market Thought: As if There was no Virus

    by Adam Button | Jun 2, 2020 22:53
    As if There was no Virus Chart A big question is to what extent the market will await the economic recovery....It's a heavy week for US economic data leading up to Friday's non-farm....5% unemployment...A new Premium trade was posted earlier before the NY close...Will the undervaluation in European indices relative to their US peers....The weekly Premium Video has been posted below, detailing the thinking behind....One way to grasp the divergence between economic data and market performance is....Tuesday was another huge day for risk assets with AUD leading and JPY lagging...The BOC decision will be closely followed with Macklem leading for the....The virus won't last forever...It continues to rage in parts of the world, but the market is acting like it&....Along those lines, there have been good signs...ICU numbers globally are falling even as infections continue...Some say it's a sign of a mutated virus or the effect of low viral loads...In any case, the market is looking to a future where the virus is gone and yet....As tough as it is to look past the virus, that's truly what the market is....There was chatter of Congress ready to hash out another stimulus spending bill....That speaks to the theme of elevated US government spending and that should....Meanwhile the real economy remain a deep concern despite the ongoing enthusiasm....The May ISM manufacturing index was at 43...1 compared to 43...7 expected; up from 41...5 in April...All the underlying metric showed only modest improvement...DAX and the Great Catch-up....In equity markets, Europe is playing catch-up to the US indices, with sharp....The spill-over to the euro is beginning to percolate...It's tempting to say it can't continue but it goes on day after day...Ashraf raised the question whether market recovery in Europe will intensify....nbsp; Markets await this week's ECB meeting and whether it will committ to....On Tuesday the moves were spectacular with yen crosses slammed lower and EM....Obviously the fear is that when everyone piles into the trade it will reverse...Certainly Wednesday's economic data will be another test with ADP employment,....Yesterday's RBA decision boosted AUD after Lowe said it's possible the....The BOC may strike the same tone on Wednesday at 1400 GMT but the main thing....He already slipped up with a garbled comment about negative rates in his..

  • Intraday Market Thought: The Protest Playbook

    by Adam Button | Jun 1, 2020 12:46
    The Protest Playbook Chart The rapid escalation of social discord in the United States highlights another....The US dollar starts the month on a down note after May showed the biggest....Aussie, silver and CAD lead, while JPY and CHF lag...The USDX chart highlights the latest headfake from the US dollar, possibly....CFTC positioning data showed few notable changes...Our Premium Insights' trades long EURUSD and XAGUSD hit their final....There are currently 3 remaining open trades...The scope and spread of US protests is truly shocking with more cities....Markets were paying very little attention on Friday but to start the....The protests are also another reason to be skeptical about growth and wary of a....Without touching on the social causes of the protests (you can find plenty of....Historically, there are two ways governments deal with social unrest: By....Both are costly...Given that the virus has already extinguished fiscal discipline and that....What's interesting in early trade is that the US dollar is lagging,....That's an interesting potential paradigm...What's also notable is that the Australian dollar broke above resistance....6700...It's a country that's levered to global growth but it's also one....Less surprising is that gold and silver are higher again...At a time like this, there's no need to overthink the simple safe haven....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +75K vs +72K prior...GBP -22K vs -19K prior...JPY +35K vs +28K prior...CHF +9K vs +9K prior...CAD -34K vs -35K prior...AUD -40K vs -39K prior...NZD -15K vs -16K..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Will S&P's China Downgrade Matter?

    by Adam Button | Sep 21, 2017 23:06
    Will S&P's China Downgrade Matter? Chart The US dollar gave back some of its gains on Thursday but risks in China are....The pound was the top performer while the Australian dollar lagged...Japan is on holiday...British PM Theresa May's speech about the EU on Friday followed by....A new Premium video was posted following the post-Fed moves in FX, indices and....China undoubtedly has a debt problem but it's had one for years without....It's one of those looming problems that's impossible to ignore but....A rarely-talked-about driver of western growth in the past 30 years is credit...It's a magical wealth creator until exhausted and that's what happened....China has been endlessly extending credit to companies and individuals and....So far bumps in the road have been handled by central planners but....Whether that's next month or next decade is the impossible question to....Other catalysts are needed...When trouble erupts, it's not likely to be from a downgrade or even a shift....Like we saw two years ago, it's likely to come on some kind of change in....For every percentage point higher in growth or incremental rise in credit,....That's why we will be watching the once-every-five years Congress that....Murmurs from China are that a theme will be stability...That's something we've heard many times before and lends itself to....In other news, the USD rally failed to follow through Thursday...That was despite a fall in initial jobless claims to 259K from 302K in the....The Philly Fed also improved to 23...8 from 17...1...Perhaps the most-telling indicator was eurozone consumer confidence...It rose to -1...2 from -1...5 – that's the best since 2001...After falling as low as 1...1853 Wednesday, the euro slowly climbed to 1...1938...Expect a quiet wind down to the week in Asia with Japan on holiday.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Trump, USDJPY & Wilkins

    by Adam Button | Sep 7, 2018 11:27
    Trump, USDJPY & Wilkins Chart A hint that Trump may target Japan next sent USD/JPY lower Thursday while the....That's quite fitting considering the US and Canada jobs reports are due next...The yen was the top performer while the New Zealand dollar lagged...A new trade for Premium subscribers will go out ahead of jobs...إستغلال اندماج الأسواق" (فيديو المشتركين)....Japan has been curiously sidelined in the global trade war despite being an....The country has a large trade surplus and a structural imbalance with the US...It's also routinely angling for a weaker currency...Much of the credit initially went to Abe who went on a major charm offensive....In comments to a WSJ opinion columnist Thursday Trump he was described as....The news comes as NAFTA signs continue to improve...The tone was once again positive with Lighthizer even making a rare quip to....Leaders appear to be pushing for a deal before the weekend but that's not a....With all eyes on NAFTA, it was the BOC that stole the trading spotlight for CAD....Taking it out would imply a faster pace of rate hikes...Ultimately, they left it in but the comment suggests they're more likely..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Global Housing is Hurting, onto ISM Services

    by Adam Button | Jan 7, 2019 14:36
    Global Housing is Hurting, onto ISM Services Chart A soft weekend on UK housing on the weekend adds to a growing list of places....USD is is lower across the board ahead of key US data with CHF leading and CAD....Powell's Friday comments reignited risk assets but this episode has likely....What's troubling is that even with rates at these historically low levels,....This highlights the fact that we should focus on the incremental increase in....On the weekend, Nationwide reported that UK house prices fell 2...1% in the past year...They had been forecast to rise 0...5%....More worrisome is that prices are down 1...6% and 0...7% in the past two months alone...It's far from isolated with home prices suffering in the US, parts of....Luxury markets have been under particular pressure with Manhattan,....The common theme might be China where apartment prices in parts of the country....It begs the question of how much Chinese wealth was support markets elsewhere...It also adds to the worries that China's consumer is tapped out...In the bigger picture, the malaise in the housing market is another reason for....On that front, mid-level officials are set to meet this week in Beijing and....Looking to Monday's US session, the highlight is the ISM non-manufacturing....The market is extremely sensitive to economic data at the moment and a miss....The consensus is for a small dip to 59...0 from 60...7.

  • Intraday Market Thought: GBP Maintains Momentum above 1.30

    by Adam Button | Jan 23, 2019 15:06
    GBP Maintains Momentum above 1.30 Chart For the 4th straight day, the British pound is the strongest currency of the....More details on the amendment here...Indices recover half of yesterday's losses after reports of cancelling US-....The Premium long in cable is currently over 180 pips in the green...A new Premium trade will be posted before the close of the London's....Global indices are rallying back following last night's pullback....That sent USD/JPY as low as 109...16 before later rebounding to 109...40 when White House advisor Kudlow denied the report...USDJPY is now at....S&P 500 is up 15 pts after having closed down 34 points on Tuesday in a....2600 remains a key support and the index is likely to retest 2680...At the same time, US existing home sales were a reminder of troubles at home....4% m/m decline in December; much worse than the -1...5% consensus...Chinese growth also remains a key concern with the IMF lowering its....4%....That's in-line with expectations but a reminder that the pace is headed in....NZD resumes Wednesday's gains after NZ inflation rose slightly faster than....CPI rose 1...9% y/y in Q4 compared to 1...8% expected...Core measures also rose at a faster pace than Q3...The market is trying to figure out whether the RBNZ will cut rates this..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Onto the ECB

    by Adam Button | Jun 6, 2019 12:30
    Onto the ECB Chart The pivot towards economic data is in full swing as the Fed and market....The US dollar rebounded Wednesday but it was a rough ride...The ECB decision is next and the main question is whether any more dovishness....A new Index trade was issued yesterday for Premium susbcribers...The market's fresh focus on economic data was on full display Wednesday...The weakest ADP reading in nine-years sent USD/JPY to the lowest since early....Even with the turn in data, the market isn't exactly sure what it wants...The bond market is entirely focused on the Fed and the front end of the....Stock markets like the idea of rate cuts but hate the idea of weaker growth so....The FX market is also caught in the middle...USD/JPY and USD/CHF are straight-forward USD-negatives on bad news but other USD....Generally, it's the latter but on tariff-specific news the dollar can....On that front, the first day of US-Mexico meetings ended without a deal as....Talks will continue and the come after Fitch downgraded Mexico and Moody's....Those headlines will be key late in the day but earlier the focus will be on....The market will be looking for TLTRO details and the possible introduction of....Economic forecasts could also be trimmed but the reaction to that will depend on....Expect plenty of hand-wringing about global trade.
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