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Results: 281 to 290 of 1,000
Results: 281 to 290 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: Finding the Bank of Canada Bias
by Adam Button | Apr 18, 2018 10:17
Today's Bank of Canada decision on interest rates (10:00 Eastern, 15:00....The loonie was the top performer Tuesday in anticipation of a hawkish move while....The latest video for Premium subscribers below highlights this week's trade....The loonie has been the hottest currency this month as NAFTA negotiations....The latest Canadian inflation and jobs numbers were good but other data has....In addition, the BOC is inclined to play it safe on NAFTA until the smoke clears...That leaves the market pricing in about an 18% chance of a hike, which is....In his most-recent comments a month ago, Poloz said the BOC was obliged to....That indicates he wants to wait and see before making any decisions...Yet, the timetable may have been moved up by last week's BOC business....It showed far more firms expecting price hikes in the year ahead along with a....Assuming rates are left unchanged, the first thing to look for is the central....This will shape up market's pricing for the June meeting...That's when the market is evenly split in the hike/no hike camps...So the BOC is left with the decision to wait and see if its upbeat predictions....Sound familiar? That's the predicament that virtually every major....At the moment, most are in the 'hike now' camp but economic data this..
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Intraday Market Thought: Carney Cuts Cable
by Ashraf Laidi | Apr 20, 2018 14:18
The British pound sustains its biggest weekly decline in over four months after....Is the BoE the latest central bank to panic over the rapid appreciation in its..
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Intraday Market Thought: 3% Pulls Dollar Higher
by Adam Button | Apr 24, 2018 0:51
Bonds remained the dominant driver on Monday as US 10-year yields close in on....The US dollar led the way while the yen lagged...Australian CPI is due up next...Below is the video for Premium subscribers clarifying Ashraf's take....إلى أين قمم الدولار ؟ (فيديو للمشتركين)....The US 10-year on-the-run note rose as high as 2...9957% on Monday in a 2 basis point rise...It's a fresh high this year but all the focus is on 3%, which may spark some....It's an arbitrary number but the underlying theme is a Fed that's....Another level to watch is 3...22% in 30-year bonds...That level was the top in 2016, 2017 and earlier this year...The dollar was helped along by several economic releases...The Markit services PMI was at 54...4 vs 54...1...The manufacturing PMI was at 56...5 vs 55...2 expected and existing home sales rose to 5...60m vs 5...55m expected...Cable fell back below 1...40 in the fifth day of sharp declines on a BOE re-think...Adding to the woes is Theresa May's sudden inability to get legislation....nbsp;....Looking ahead, the focus will shift to the Australian dollar with Q1 CPI data....It's a critical report that's expected to show inflation rise by 0...5% in the quarter, a slight deceleration from 0...6% in Q1...That's in contrast to the trimmed mean, which is forecast to accelerate to....5% from 0...4% q/q.
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Intraday Market Thought: Ashraf at Old Trafford Saturday
by Ashraf Laidi | May 11, 2018 10:30
Don't forget tomorrow's once in a lifetime opportunity to attend Ashraf&....nbsp; Full details.
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Intraday Market Thought: Retail Sales Questions ahead of Powell
by Adam Button | Jul 16, 2018 23:02
Some key metrics on US retail sales were soft Monday but revisions helped to....The Swiss franc was the top performer while the Australian dollar lagged...New Zealand CPI is up next...A new Premium trade in CHF has been issued ahead of tomorrow's....The Premium video on today's new trade and existing trades is found below...US retail sales matched the +0...5% consensus expectation in June but with May's revision to +1...3% from +0...8%, the overall tone of the report was stronger...The effect was less-pronounced once volatile categories like autos, gas and....Can the true health of the US consumer be assessed via volatile items? And will....Cable climbed as high as 1...3295 before backing off to 1...3230...Part of GBP weakness was due to uncertainty about May's government....She remains in an extremely precarious, almost impossible position and it would....It's also not entirely clear what would be the reaction if she were forced....Initially there would be turmoil and GBP selling but others might see it as a....Ultimately, it's tough to see any future where both Brexit sides call a....The big move in financial markets in the past week has been oil and that....Key levels from the recent run-up have been broken and the 61...8% retracement of the June-July rally is now hanging by a thread...Interestingly, USD/CAD finished lower despite the drop in oil price...If crude continues to fall, that surely won't last...Looking ahead, New Zealand CPI is due up at 2245 GMT and expected up a modest 1...6% y/y...Later, sterling will be back in focus with jobs data at 0830 GMT.
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Intraday Market Thought: Trump Weighs in on GDP Figures
by Adam Button | Jul 24, 2018 15:13
All currencies are up against the US dollar except for the Swiss franc...G20 leaders refrained from any drama over the weekend but highlighted growing....2 days before the ECB press conference and 3 days before the advanced Q2 GDP....Trump weighs in ahead of GDP Data....Aside from Trump's threatening comments towards his Iranian counterpart....8%, compared to consensus estimates of 4...2% and Q1's 2...1%....While this should add a new dimension to the expectations parameters, FX traders....20 resistance on USDX and 1...1550 support in EURUSD...The weekend featured the G20 meeting in Argentina and it featured the usual....They called for better communication, in part to enhance confidence...That's undoubtedly a swipe at the White House but it's not the kind of....His ministers, however, were making some peace...At the G20, Canadian and Mexican finance ministers had optimistic comments on....Cable continues to be in focus after racing higher Friday from a 10-month low...Over the weekend, the EU rejected the UK's financial services plan...New UK Brexit negotiator Raab also said the UK wouldn't pay the divorce bill....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +21K vs +24K prior...GBP -38K vs -40K prior...JPY -59K vs -40K prior...CAD -47K vs -53K prior...CHF -42K vs -40K prior...AUD -41K vs -41K prior...NZD -25K vs -27K prior....After a few weeks of big moves, the action was a bit more subdued except for....Shorts piled in as USD/JPY appeared to break out but Trump ensued all the new....Also consider rumours that the BoJ will terminate or rethink its QE policy as..
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Intraday Market Thought: ECB Scenarios
by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 26, 2018 11:57
Here's a list of possible scenarios in today's ECB announcement/press....Pay attention to the announcement at 12:45 (London time) for any changes in....Full Analysis.
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Intraday Market Thought: Trade Tribulations, Decisions Next
by Adam Button | Sep 12, 2018 22:22
Headlines on trade continue to dictate intraday market moves but optimism on....The US dollar lagged while the Australian dollar led the way ahead of....That's followed by Thursday's ECB and BOE decisions...The English Premium video is found here...nbsp;....أي صفقات قبل المركزي الأوروبي؟ (فيديو للمشتركين فقط)....Risk trades initially rallied on a WSJ report that US officials had reached out....USD/JPY climbed and equities in the US and China jumped...The moves proved to be fleeting...The main reason was that the overture for the talks came from Treasury....He's a China dove and has been trying to patch together talks for some....Other reports says Trump had planned to announce the tariffs this week but his....As Ashraf reminds, keep an eye on the 7...0 level in USD/CNY...Any rebound towards 6...90 would reflect deteriorating chances of a deal between the US and China...Separately, NAFTA talks continue to drag on...The Canadian dollar was lifted by a comment from Mexico's Guajardo that....Certainly the signs are pointing in that direction but a Reuters source report....Now it's onto the ECB and BOE decisions...A report from Bloomberg said the ECB will trim its growth forecasts but that....Reporters will likely repeat their questions to Draghi on whether there is....We'll be watching for any signals about rate hikes around this time next....As for the BOE, this is the first meeting after the hike last month so any....Also note the meeting will include a new member, Jonathan Haskel, replacing Ian..
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Intraday Market Thought: Clashing Trade, Brexit & Fed
by Adam Button | Sep 24, 2018 17:28
President Trump's tariffs on China have taken effect on the week when the....CFTC positioning showed big moves in GBP and AUD...There are holidays throughout Asia to start the week, while Germany's IFO....ECB president Mario Draghi indicated today “relatively vigorous”....A new USD trade has been issued to Premium subscribers, supported by 2....On Friday, cable fell by the most in a single day since June 2017 as it plunged....3075 from 1...3265 on a sudden diplomatic crisis for Theresa May...France's Macron led a messaging switch from the EU as he attacked....That was compounded by the usual fear-mongering in the UK press...As the attacks on May intensified, she was forced to make a statement where she....The pound took no comfort in that on fell to a new low...As the opposition Labour Party gathers for Party's annual conference,....Reports also leaked out that Conservatives were game-planning for a....What next? A new vote or election would be GBP-positive after the initial....Instead, look for May to continue to stagger forward towards some kind of....The main players in negotiations have been generally upbeat so a deal is....Traders must adopt extra care when selecting the right GBP pairs and....A new GBP trade was issued on Friday...CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +2K vs +11K prior...GBP -79K vs -61K prior...JPY -64K vs -54K prior...CHF -18K vs -35K prior...CAD -30K vs -27K prior...AUD -68K vs -44K prior...NZD -32K vs -22K prior....What's impressive about increasing cable shorts is that they piled in....Even in a crowd that's already trade, there appears to be plenty of appetite....Meanwhile, the timing on the fresh shorts in AUD and NZD was poor with both..
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Intraday Market Thought: Will Fed Remain ‘Accommodative’?
by Adam Button | Sep 26, 2018 16:13
An FOMC decision to hike rates on Wednesday is a foregone conclusion but....GBP was the top performer Tuesday while JPY lagged...The Premium video on the current and potential trades titled:"Ahead &....The Conference Board on Tuesday said September US consumer confidence was at....4 compared to 132...1 a month earlier...That's a fresh high since 2000 as optimism spreads about jobs and the....Numbers like that are why markets and economists are virtually unanimous that....00%-2...25% on Wednesday...Today's release of higher than expected 3...5% rise in US new home also helped sentiment...The bigger question is whether they will stay 'accommodative'....The current statement says that policy remains accommodative but that word....If so, such a removal would make today's rate action hike a dovish hike as....While it would not t jeopardize a December hike, it may be the difference....A compromise could be saying that policy is 'somewhat accommodative'....All else equal, how that's managed will determine the kneejerk in the US....Nonetheless, it's not the only moving part...The Fed will release new forecasts that are likely to include a bump up in the....8% level...The dot plot focus may be on the 'longer run' median which could move....0% from 2...75%....That might not necessarily mean anything, because the composition of forecasters....It is too early in the year for markets to worry about whether 3 or 4 Fed hikes....In the press conference, the market may hone in on the path of rates next year...At the moment, there's a wide range of expectations...If Powell is upbeat on the economy and suggests wage pressures, more hikes will....And rest assured that any change in the forecasts and the word "....There's a risk he could temper than by signaling slow progress on inflation....With market positioning already heavily long dollars, the risks are balanced.
