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  • Intraday Market Thought: ECB Scenarios

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 26, 2018 11:57
    ECB Scenarios Chart Here's a list of possible scenarios in today's ECB announcement/press....Pay attention to the announcement at 12:45 (London time) for any changes in....Full Analysis.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Trade Tribulations, Decisions Next

    by Adam Button | Sep 12, 2018 22:22
    Trade Tribulations, Decisions Next Chart Headlines on trade continue to dictate intraday market moves but optimism on....The US dollar lagged while the Australian dollar led the way ahead of....That's followed by Thursday's ECB and BOE decisions...The English Premium video is found here...nbsp;....أي صفقات قبل المركزي الأوروبي؟ (فيديو للمشتركين فقط)....Risk trades initially rallied on a WSJ report that US officials had reached out....USD/JPY climbed and equities in the US and China jumped...The moves proved to be fleeting...The main reason was that the overture for the talks came from Treasury....He's a China dove and has been trying to patch together talks for some....Other reports says Trump had planned to announce the tariffs this week but his....As Ashraf reminds, keep an eye on the 7...0 level in USD/CNY...Any rebound towards 6...90 would reflect deteriorating chances of a deal between the US and China...Separately, NAFTA talks continue to drag on...The Canadian dollar was lifted by a comment from Mexico's Guajardo that....Certainly the signs are pointing in that direction but a Reuters source report....Now it's onto the ECB and BOE decisions...A report from Bloomberg said the ECB will trim its growth forecasts but that....Reporters will likely repeat their questions to Draghi on whether there is....We'll be watching for any signals about rate hikes around this time next....As for the BOE, this is the first meeting after the hike last month so any....Also note the meeting will include a new member, Jonathan Haskel, replacing Ian..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Clashing Trade, Brexit & Fed

    by Adam Button | Sep 24, 2018 17:28
    Clashing Trade, Brexit & Fed Chart President Trump's tariffs on China have taken effect on the week when the....CFTC positioning showed big moves in GBP and AUD...There are holidays throughout Asia to start the week, while Germany's IFO....ECB president Mario Draghi indicated today “relatively vigorous”....A new USD trade has been issued to Premium subscribers, supported by 2....On Friday, cable fell by the most in a single day since June 2017 as it plunged....3075 from 1...3265 on a sudden diplomatic crisis for Theresa May...France's Macron led a messaging switch from the EU as he attacked....That was compounded by the usual fear-mongering in the UK press...As the attacks on May intensified, she was forced to make a statement where she....The pound took no comfort in that on fell to a new low...As the opposition Labour Party gathers for Party's annual conference,....Reports also leaked out that Conservatives were game-planning for a....What next? A new vote or election would be GBP-positive after the initial....Instead, look for May to continue to stagger forward towards some kind of....The main players in negotiations have been generally upbeat so a deal is....Traders must adopt extra care when selecting the right GBP pairs and....A new GBP trade was issued on Friday...CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +2K vs +11K prior...GBP -79K vs -61K prior...JPY -64K vs -54K prior...CHF -18K vs -35K prior...CAD -30K vs -27K prior...AUD -68K vs -44K prior...NZD -32K vs -22K prior....What's impressive about increasing cable shorts is that they piled in....Even in a crowd that's already trade, there appears to be plenty of appetite....Meanwhile, the timing on the fresh shorts in AUD and NZD was poor with both..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Will Fed Remain ‘Accommodative’?

    by Adam Button | Sep 26, 2018 16:13
    Will Fed Remain ‘Accommodative’? Chart An FOMC decision to hike rates on Wednesday is a foregone conclusion but....GBP was the top performer Tuesday while JPY lagged...The Premium video on the current and potential trades titled:"Ahead &....The Conference Board on Tuesday said September US consumer confidence was at....4  compared to 132...1 a month earlier...That's a fresh high since 2000 as optimism spreads about jobs and the....Numbers like that are why markets and economists are virtually unanimous that....00%-2...25% on Wednesday...Today's release of higher than expected 3...5% rise in US new home also helped sentiment...The bigger question is whether they will stay 'accommodative'....The current statement says that policy remains accommodative but that word....If so, such a removal would make today's rate action hike a dovish hike as....While it would not t jeopardize a December hike, it may be the difference....A compromise could be saying that policy is 'somewhat accommodative'....All else equal, how that's managed will determine the kneejerk in the US....Nonetheless, it's not the only moving part...The Fed will release new forecasts that are likely to include a bump up in the....8% level...The dot plot focus may be on the 'longer run' median which could move....0% from 2...75%....That might not necessarily mean anything, because the composition of forecasters....It is too early in the year for markets to worry about whether 3 or 4 Fed hikes....In the press conference, the market may hone in on the path of rates next year...At the moment, there's a wide range of expectations...If Powell is upbeat on the economy and suggests wage pressures, more hikes will....And rest assured that any change in the forecasts and the word "....There's a risk he could temper than by signaling slow progress on inflation....With market positioning already heavily long dollars, the risks are balanced.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Central Bankers saw the Boogeyman

    by Adam Button | Sep 28, 2018 12:31
    Central Bankers saw the Boogeyman Chart A main theme in markets in 2018 has been fear of a trade war but now that heavy....Eurozone flash CPI for September remained at 2...1% with core CPI slipping to 0...9% y/y...US August core PCE is up next, expected to remain unchanged at 2...0%....nbsp; Canada July GDP is also due next...A new short in a primary index has been issued...A genuine trade war isn't something developed markets have encountered in at....The concerns are no-doubt real and the situation is worsening...That said, it hasn't been as bad as feared...The tariff boogeyman has crawled out of the shadows and economic activity hasn&....Increasingly, global central bankers are brushing aside the concerns and....That's likely to continue and is a tradeable theme for the remainder of the....Here's Ashraf''s detailed look at performance of the USD in the....BoC-NAFTA Axis....CAD is recovering from NAFTA-related worries after Bank of Canada's Poloz....The BoC-NAFTA axis continues to impact CAD with the former imposing a slower....Eventually, markets and central bankers may be hit by a jolt of fear but for now,....As for trade deals, there's no doubt that the odds of a NAFTA deal declined....But how much? Perhaps to 90% from 95%....The next main short-term risk is the release of the text of the deal Friday...That might include another round of public comments from Trump and/or....CAD will shall await Jul GDP and US core PCE data as it awaits along the 1...30 support...Even with that, the market is comfortable that Congress, corporations,....In the UK, the knives are out once again for Theresa May with Boris Johnson....Negotiations in the next six weeks are going to be brutal as she fights off..

  • Intraday Market Thought: How Bad Can it Get for Italy?

    by Adam Button | Oct 19, 2018 13:55
    How Bad Can it Get for Italy? Chart USD is on the downside alongside JPY as global indices rally on willingness from....This followed Thursday's drubbing as Italian 10-year yields blew out again....The saga adds to the cynicism in broad markets that sparked a sharp risk-off....Disappointed figures from US existing home saless, Canada CPI and retail sales....The CAD trade was stopped out and a new CAD Premium trade has just been issued....A new intraday index trade will also be issued...The spread between borrowing costs for 10 years in Italy and Germany widened to....The move came after the EU delivered a letter to Italian officials that draw a....It said the budget had a 'significant deviation' from the....They said planned spending next year increased 2...7% while the max allowed under EU rules is 0...1%....The ball now is in Rome's court as it an explanation is expected from....But first, Italy's 2 coalition parties have to resolve an internal spat....The risks are high no matter which side backs down...If the EU chooses to dig in and wins the battle, it may further alienate and....If Italy's government wins, which is what most expect, then it will further....Next Friday ratings agencies are also scheduled for an update on Italy...That will be a major risk event...Conte touched on it Thursday saying he thinks a downgrade can be avoided...The market increasingly thinks it's inevitable, with the risk of two-notch....The middle ground is narrow...The government may opt to tighten up slightly in a compromise but that's....That leaves a narrow path for any kind of success in Italy and that will be a....Friday will be a battle for EURUSD bulls attempting to save the 1...15 barrier...The turmoil gave a lift to the yen in a classic risk-off trade...GBP/JPY was particularly hard hit despite upbeat words from both sides of....While a deal between May and EU appears to be making progress, a deal between..

  • Intraday Market Thought: May Digs in on Brexit

    by Adam Button | Jan 14, 2019 14:21
    May Digs in on Brexit Chart Theresa May heads to staunchly pro-Brexit territory on Monday in a promise....The yen and Swiss franc are the strongest since the start of Asia's....The US government shutdown extended to a record 22 days on Monday and CFTC FX....Two Premium trades were issued on Friday in the cryptospace with charts &....The pound hangs in the balance with parliamentarians set to vote on Brexit....The odds of a win for Theresa May are remote...She's failed to find a middle ground that can gain enough support with her....She spoke in Stoke-on-Trent Monday in a last ditch effort to rally support,....A weekend report said some lawmakers may try to seize control of the legislative....Earlier today, the EU releaseed a letter reiterating that the Irish border....Some Brexit Vote Scenarios....A defeat of Tuesday's vote by a significant margin (more than 70-80....nbsp; A closer result, especially within 30-40 votes, could be GBP-positive as....Others may need some smaller concessions...Traders should also be aware that the 3 likely consequences of rejection of....1) Canada-style agreement; UK negotiates trade with all EU members similar to....2) 2nd referendum -- Also known as the people's vote -- is the ideal....There's currently backing of 150 MPs for a 2nd referendum from all 4 main....3) Norway Plus agrmt -- Britain stays in customs union or single market -- but....How the EU will handle the backstop issue in order to appease the DUP shall..

  • Intraday Market Thought: China Deal Optimism Props Risk Trades

    by Adam Button | Jan 18, 2019 14:09
    China Deal Optimism Props Risk Trades Chart Market ebullience intensifies after a brief pause on reports that US Treasury....The reports were later denied but indices remain firmly in the green...The main risk to the prolonged rebound remains a sharper slowdown in China than....On Monday, Beijing will release key economic data and that argues for....On the wires just now, NY Fed president Williams stuck to somewhat dovish....Fed funds rate probabilities for a 2019 Fed hike are at 21% vs 7% for a rate cut....nbsp; Wednesday's GBPUSD long for Premium subscribers hit the final target....2970 for 140 pips while Wednesday's Premium Dow30 long from 24080 is....US industrial production rose 0...3% in December (vs exp 0...2%) after a downwards revised  0...4% in Nov...US markets close on Monday for Martin Luther King Holiday...The underlying ebb and flow of the market at the moment is the balancing....That was crystalized at the start of the week when dismal trade numbers first....Recall Wednesday's announcement from China's central bank to boost the....The same risks are in play in the week ahead...On Monday (late Sunday in North America), China will release data on retail....Chances are, those numbers will continue the streak of poor data...Also note that Monday is the Martin Luther King Jr...holiday so US traders won't return til Tuesday...There are other risks into the weekend as well...China is expected to lower its growth target this year to 6...0-6...5% but even at the low end of that range, the target of doubling the economy in....It's a staggering achievement...Onto Trump....Is Trump done?  Key members of his cabinet have all quit...The people around him have abandoned him...Will he still be the Republican candidate in 2020?  The only reason....His best bet for survival is to re-boost the stock market by making a deal with....Ashraf tells me that failure to do so in the next six weeks will get us back to....More broadly, it's over for him and it's just a question of how messy it....If this shutdown is any indication, it will be ugly but don't underestimate....If Trump clinches a deal with China he could claim victory for that and blame....That's a temporary upside risk for markets.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Ashraf at New York Traders' Expo

    by Ashraf Laidi | Feb 7, 2019 16:32
    My participation at the New York Traders' Expo is long overdue...So I'm delighted to inform you that I'll be a featured speaker at this....It's one of the longest running expos on trading around and a great....I strongly encourage you to reserve your free seat, and join me at the ultimate....Full Program.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Equities Push into Earnings

    by Adam Button | Apr 15, 2019 13:10
    Equities Push into Earnings Chart It's been one of the best starts to a year ever for stock markets but it'....The week ahead is all about the start of US earnings season, with important data....GBP currently leads currencies since the stat of a thinly traded Asian ession...The Video for Premium susbcribers is posted below, flagging signals as to....nbsp;....The temptation is to chalk up the rally in equities this year to better growth....Growth almost everywhere has disappointed...Instead, this is a rally entirely predicated on the Fed going to the....No surprise that on Friday, indices in most developed world markets rallied to....69 trillion yuan compared to 1...2 trillion expected...Markets are increasingly betting on two things: 1) An end to the US-China trade....The looming problem is that their actions will help in Q3 or Q4, but we&....Gauging Earnings Season....There is considerable risk for disappointment for revenues and earnings,....The week ahead is focused on financials, which do not reflect an accurate view....But there could be clues from Netflix, Pepsi, Alcoa and Las Vegas Sands this....Make sure to distinguish beteween forecasts for revenues, profits and....And when you read the term "earnings recession", that means....One spot we've been following closely is signaling a positive outcome...On Friday, AUD/JPY rose to the highest levels of the year...It had been trading in a tight, well-defined 3% range since the flash crash....The rally on Friday argues that central banks may have done enough to keep risk....On the same token, check out Ashraf's take on the topic in Friday's IMT....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of last Tuesday's close...Net short denoted by - long by....This week's report was delayed because of the US holiday...EUR -102K vs -99K prior...GBP -7K vs -10K prior...JPY -72K vs -63K prior...CHF -28K vs -26K prior...CAD -43K vs -44K prior...AUD -54K vs -56K prior...NZD -1K vs 0K prior....The euro rallied last week despite Draghi's decidedly dovish press....The net short is the largest since late-2016 and the pair is basing from a....1180...If EUR/USD can keep the momentum going, shorts will start to get nervous.
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