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Intraday Market Thought: Spring in the Market

by Adam Button | Mar 21, 2017 22:01
The change of the seasons on Tuesday brought a sea change in markets as....The pound was the top performer while the New Zealand dollar lagged...Central bank speakers highlight Asia-Pacific trading...nbsp;Last night's GBP Premium trade is in the red...Currently, 5 out of 7 existing Premium trades are showing a gain, with the....The S&P 500 posted its worst day since Oct 1 on Tuesday in a 29-point....In FX, that meant selling on the yen crosses...USD/JPY briefly broke the bottom of the Feb/March range and whether it truly....There wasn't a single catalyst for the change in mood but one worry is the....The first test is the repeal and replacement of Obamacare, which is the....Yet the first bill to replace it is facing a close vote in the House this....That's something the market has known for days but the inability of....Another worry is oil...For the past two days OPEC and Russia have floated some oil-positive stories...Both led to short-lived pops in crude that were erased in the following half-....Now, crude is re-testing the March low and API inventories showed another big....Another technical level to watch is the January high of 1...0829 in the euro...We've emphasized repeatedly how the US dollar struggled with good news like....Now the tide has turned and small doses of USD-negative news are having a big....That's a signal about an overcrowded trade that's thinning out...Ultimately, central banks will write the next chapter but it's beginning to....The BOJ's Funo and RBA's Debelle speak at 0130 GMT and 0140 GMT,....Just after Debelle speaks, the Fed's Rosengren is in Bali to deliver remarks...We'll be curious to see if hawkish talk can stem the USD selling.
Intraday Market Thought: Countdown to Sunday's Volatility

by Adam Button | Apr 20, 2017 22:57
First there was Brexit, then Trump and now it's the French election; or at....We take a closer look...nbsp;The Premium Insights closed the EURCAD long at 1...4495 for a 235-pip gain in order to make a way for a tactical dual EUR trade on....Polls showed fractional momentum for Macron, helping to boost the CAC-40 in....That uptick may be telling because a large number of voters said they were....A poll from Harris showed Macron at 24...5%, Le Pen at 21%, Fillon at 20% and Melenchon at 19%....Given the margin of error and other factors like turnout and undecideds, it&....Polls show Melenchon would win that contest but German Fin Min Schaeuble....What's important to remember is that's a highly unlikely scenario and....If Macron finishes in the top-two and moves to the runoff, he's heavily....Fillon would also be a big favorite against Le Pen or Melenchon...So while the market sees this as a potential redux of Brexit or Trump, it....Brexit polls were close in the days ahead of the vote and Trump lost the....In France, it's a national popular vote so polling is simplified...That said, there is always the risk that voters are playing coy with pollsters....The risks may be even higher after what looked like a terrorist attack on the....That alone could add to jitters Friday...After talking with many traders and analysts, there is a distinct fear of....Sunday Afternoon Volatility....Watch for exit polls hitting at 8 pm Paris time on Sunday (7 pm London, 2 pm....Before that, we'll watch for continue comments from leaders at IMF....The prior was 52...4.
Intraday Market Thought: Sometimes It only Takes a Nudge

by Adam Button | Jun 27, 2017 23:15
When markets are on the razor's edge it only takes a nudge to send them....The euro was the top performer while the yen lagged...The Asia-Pacific calendar is light but a major central banking event takes place....The EURUSD premium long was closed at 1...1348 for 168-pip gain, while cable remains open...Below is the Premium video posted right after Draghi's inflation remarks...In central banking, it's not always the words, it's who says them...Yellen has been saying for months that the slowdown in US inflation is only....By the end of the day, 50 pips had turned into 160 as technical levels gave....At the same time, the IMF cut its US growth estimate for this year to 2...1% from 2...3% and for 2018 to 2...1% from 2...5%....They blamed, in part, the inability of Congress to deliver on promises...That point was underscored late in the day as Republican leaders said no vote....Stocks didn't like that headline and the S&P 500 fell 0...8% and the Nasdaq 1...6%....The bigger story was in the bond market as European 10-year yields surged 12-16....6 bps...That helped to sink the yen across the board including a 230 pip rise in....The Canadian dollar got a helping hand from a 2% rise oil and that led to....However late in the day, private inventory data from API showed yet-....Cable was also a winner as it rose above 1...28 and then busted through stops in an instantaneous move to 1...2862 as the mid-June highs broke...Part of the equation of Sturgeon announcing a halt on plans to host a....Buried under it all was an upbeat US consumer confidence number and hawkish....It's clear that soft data and hints at continuing to raise rates aren't....The breakout in the euro is real but it's not going to be a non-stop climb....Looking ahead, the calendar is quiet for a few hours ahead but we're looking....Draghi, Carney, Kuroda and Poloz will all appear together at 1330 GMT to talk..
Intraday Market Thought: Korean Fuse Burns Risk Trades

by Adam Button | Sep 4, 2017 0:40
North Korea detonated its largest test yet as it sprints toward nuclear-power....The yen and Swiss franc are strongly higher in early trading as a result...Gold gapped up to 1337 from Friday's 1325...CFTC positioning data showed further bets against the pound...US and Canadian markets are closed on Monday...nbsp; 3 Premium trades are in progress but 2 trades will be added ahead of what....nbsp;....North Korea tested a nuclear weapon underground on Saturday that appeared to....It was Pyongyang's 6th nuclear test, which triggered a 6...3-magnitude quake and was felt throughout northeastern China...A statement from Kim Jong-Un's government said it was a hydrogen bomb....Risk trades are under pressure with the yen and Swiss franc around 50 pips....Expect more risk aversion as Europe begins trading and note that markets....The speed of North Korea's progress and testing is alarming...They are evidently years ahead of where experts had believed...In a tweet, Donald Trump said the United States is considering, in addition to....That's almost-certainly a hollow threat because China is by far its....Most of the UN Security Council is angling to cut off North Korea's oil....As recently as last week China said it didn't want further sanctions...The immediate risk probably isn't nuclear war but some kind of trade spat....According to reports, Trump has already asked aides for tariffs on China for....Ultimately, the fears and rhetoric will subside but at this point it looks like....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +87K vs +88K prior...GBP -52K vs -46K prior...JPY -69K vs -74K prior...CHF -2K vs -2K prior...CAD +53K vs +51K prior...AUD +67K vs +60K prior...NZD +19K vs +22K prior....The moves were modest this week but the trend has been a slow build in pound....One spot that's vulnerable in the week ahead is NZD, which has caught..
Intraday Market Thought: Does Euro Care About Catalonia?

by Adam Button | Oct 2, 2017 13:32
Nearly 1000 people were injured in a voting crackdown Sunday in Catalonia as....After having been the top performer in September, the pound is the day's....US manufacturing ISM is up next...nbsp; The Premium shorts in DAX and USDCAD were both stopped out...Here is a look at today's DAX chart...Could it be a case of "market is irrational longer than you can be....Spain's central government attempted to shut down voting as Catalonia aims....The challenge for Catalan leaders is to form a legitimate government and gain....The government will aim to enter into negotiations but given the violence and....Will the euro suffer? Early indications are that it won't and so long as it....Catalonia's contribution to Spain's economy has been....A more-likely driver early in the week will be solid numbers from China...The official manufacturing PMI was at 52...4 compared to 51...6 expected while the services PMI soared to 55...4 versus 53...4 previously...In a sign that officials are loosening policy, China also loosed the RRR for....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +88K vs +62K prior...GBP +5K vs -10K prior (1st positive in nearly 2 years)....JPY -71K vs -51K prior...CHF –1...8K vs -1...5K prior...CAD +75K vs +59K prior...AUD +77K vs 72K prior...NZD +8K vs +12K prior....The power of central bankers has been on display in the cable data...GBP was deeply net short a few weeks ago and now the market is betting Carney....Euro longs also rebounded after a dip last week as the market finds support....17...The bounce shows how eager specs are to buy the dips...nbsp;..
Intraday Market Thought: From Washington to Rome

by Adam Button | Sep 27, 2018 14:54
Markets were busy digesting the aftermath of the Fed's rate hike....CAD fell further as Trump played hard ball with Canada over NAFTA...The RBNZ held rates at 1...75% as expected, with US rates finally rising above those of New Zealand...درج اليورو بعد الفدرالي (فيديو للمشتركين فقط)....The Fed hiked rates to a range of 2...00%-2...25% on Wednesday but sent mixed messages about the path of rates ahead...In the bond market, US 10s are also yielding 40 basis points more than kiwi....It's rare to have the US as the high yielder in developed markets and those....As for the Fed, the statement removed a reference to 'accommodative' in....That move reversed in the press conference when Powell indicated the....In comments on the path of rates, Powell sounded like he'd just spent two....Instead he said the Fed will stay on its path and judge what to do next based on....As for the path, it's not entirely clear but he said the lowest estimations....Salvini Flirts with Budget....The euro fell anew alongside Italian bonds after Matteo Salvini, Italy's....The comments were at odds with Economy minister Tria who had been supporting....Brussels requires EU nations to keep the budget deficit below 3% of GDP...The matter will resurface again next week when Italy's leadwers back from....Separately, the Canadian dollar swooned Wednesday as NAFTA negotiations sour...First, the White House leaked that it's planning to publish the text of a....Trump has long threatened to exclude Canada but that was mostly through to be....Trump doubled down later saying he rejected a one-on-one meeting with....Still, Trump conceded there was a “good chance” of a deal with....That was reflected in a rally in USD/CAD to 1...3040 from 1...2950.
Intraday Market Thought: Arrest Worse than Tariffs

by Adam Button | Dec 6, 2018 11:45
Selling intensifies in global indices, extending Tuesday's selloff --which....The latest wave of risk-off attack began at the open of futures 11 hours ago....Meng Wanzhou is the daughter of Huwawei's founder and CEO as well as a....Accusations of spying are undoing the work of any deal done between China and....The existing index short is currently 420 pts in the green...quot;ما وراء الصفقة القادمة؟" (فيديو المشتركين)....S&P 500 futures are down 50 points to 2655, Dow futures down 450 pts to....The bond market was rattled as well as 2 year yields rose above 3s and 5s in....That thinking may have created a feedback loop in stocks and helped to....Another factor is commentary from the Fed's Williams...Almost struck a defiant tone on rate hikes, repeatedly touting the strength....Perhaps the most-important factor was pushback from the Chinese...Multiple reports suggested China was unhappy with the style and substance of....There are indications they did not agree to what Trump's team said, or did....Instead, they plan to take them after a completed deal...China watchers also say that Beijing doesn't believe in announcing part....Despite the drops in equities and yields, FX continues to mostly take it in....Yen crosses fell with USD/JPY down a full cent to 112...70...JPY, GBP and CHF are all gaining vs USD...Commodity currencies also sank but it didn't have the sense of disorder....Cable is a chart to watch in particular...It very briefly hit a 18-month low below August support but it quickly rebounded...May lost a vote in parliament that forced her government to publish legal....More importantly, it was seen as a soft indicator on how the Dec 11 vote on the....Loonie continues to be hit by the effect of plumetting oil as well a cautionary....A weekly close above 1...3450 could further induce CAD bears...nbsp;..
Intraday Market Thought: From Beijing’s Perspective

by Adam Button | Dec 7, 2018 12:06
Beijing might have a trade problem with the US, or it might be an IP theft....The Swiss franc was the top performer Thursday while the Australian....US and Canada jobs are next...US average hourly earnings are expected at 0...3% m/m from 0...2% and unchanged at 3...1% y/y...nbsp; Oil swings further amid conflicting reports of Iran's....The Premium short in the Dax hit its final target for 650-pt gain...A new trade in another index was opened before the Thursday close...China has some major strategic decisions to make and the arrest of Meng Wanzhou....In public, the US says it only wants China to narrow its trade surplus with....Yet there are reasons to believe that the US sees China as a rival in the....If China believes it can continue with the growth-together policy then it would....If, however, Beijing believes that by doing so, Trump would only ask for more....The arrest of Meng appears to be a strong signal that the US isn't....Or at least it's increasingly looking that way from China's....If it determine sthat the Trump administration is pursuing containment,....The third option is the obvious one, even if it means enduring another two....However, the case for option 2 may be growing...A big reason is that Trump has been extremely successful in turning public....We see this every day in increasing anti-China sentiment among normally level-....It's like a Pandora's Box has been opened and something like a cold-....If China decides the US is pursing containment, then the trajectory of....In that time, expect markets to struggle with the same question...For the moment, talk of an on-pause Fed after a December hike has salvaged....Two reasons Friday is certain to be volatile are the OPEC meeting and non-....There are rumblings that Saudi Arabia and Iran are at odds about Iran's....It was assumed Iran would be exempted because its exports have already been....Talk so far is around 1mbpd, which is less than the market was hoping for, as....As for the jobs report, the focus will once again be on wage growth and a high..
Intraday Market Thought: The Centre can't Hold

by Adam Button | May 28, 2019 17:38
Taking a break from the US-China trade war, the nationalist streak in EU....Both equity indices trades in the Premium Insights remain open and the....CFTC positioning showed a late shift into GBP shorts...It's a slow slow start to the week with the UK and US on holiday Monday so....This is traditionally a forgotten vote in markets but it took on special....Turnout surged to hit 50% for the first time in at least 20 years...The short-term story is that the grand coalition of the centre-left and centre-....A surprise is that it wasn't because of a swing to nationalists but because....In the short-term, this will leave EU parliament less effective and more....That's a small negative for the limited growth levers that the EU can....Yet, the market will quickly move on...The long-term is the more interesting development as these results crystalize....What looked like a right-wing shift in parts of the world a few years ago is....The message is especially stark in the UK where another vote shows support....Nigel Farage won a seat for the Brexit party and his comments afterwards were....Massive message here...The Labour and Conservative parties could learn a huge lesson tonight but I....He wants the lesson to be about Brexit but it's really about wanting change...Voters might not yet be sure of what they want but they're looking for....For more details on Ashraf's take on GBPUSD, please see Friday's piece....Another trend is the rise of green parties...If mainstream parties can't deliver progress then some voters are....This is a trend that market participants must watch extremely closely...Many environmentals leaders are practical but others are dogmatic and....Today Trump is using national security as a justification for tariffs but we....It may be no coincidence that Bitcoin is back at a one-year high at $8940...The same dissatisfaction with the status quo is a part of the financial system....At the same time , tech, pot and fake meat companies are reaching lofty....The lesson is that everywhere people are looking for something to believe in...Ultimately, the fundamentals are what determines winners and losers but at the....There's no sense fighting it...CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR -101K vs -95K prior...GBP -26K vs -3K prior...JPY -55K vs -62K prior...CHF -37K vs -40K prior...CAD -42K vs -48K prior...AUD -66K vs -66K prior...NZD -11K vs -11K prior....The sudden jump in GBP sales is a red flag...Specs have been wrong-footed repeatedly and piling into shorts in the pound at....May was a thorn in the side of the pound for months but the political risks are....Another interesting one is the Australian dollar...Scott Morrison's surprise win led to some short covering this week but it..
Intraday Market Thought: High Frequency Trade War

by Adam Button | Aug 15, 2019 15:05
The last 12 hours have seen more swings and reversals than in any recent 12....Just as markets were licking their wounds after Wednesday's slump (800-....2 hours later, markets erased all of the morning's losses with JPY losing....Markets pushed further higher after US retail sales posted their biggest rise....US industrial production contracted unexpectedly...Ashraf's closed the Premium DOW30 short 700-pt gain, before opening a new....There are 2 existing trades currently open...Separately, EUR sells off ater ECB remarks...More below...بين الداو، النفط و الإسترليني(فيديو للمشتركين جاهز الآن)....All of this is a fresh reminder why traders must stay relatively small in....Wednesday's violent sell-off was all about the spread between 2-year and 10-....It was triggered Wednesday in the US, UK as well as Canada as a massive bid....The US 30-year yield fell 15 basis points below 2...0% for the first time on record...It led to 2-3% declines in equities in North America and Europe...The damage wasn't quite as dramatic in FX as USD/JPY sank 80 pips and didn&....Commodity currencies were hit a bit harder but not enough to break the....It may only be a matter of time...At turning points in the economy sentiment can be as important as hard....The relentless trade war headlines are sure to take a bite out of business....Euro Falls on Rehn....EURUSD broke below its 2-week range, shedding half a cent on dovish comments....The comments send a reminder of the ECB's counterweight to any Fed easing...Meanwhile, President Trump has taken to relentless criticism of the Federal....He attacked Powell on four separate occasions Wednesday and his deputies did....The Washington Post reported that it's part of a strategy to prop up the....We see it as more of a sign that the President can't stomach a deep fall....In this week's English and Arabic videos for Premium members, Ashraf....1...Will equity indices return to the June lows or stabilise at the Aug 5 low?....2...If the June lows are to be seen, how high could the bounce be?....3...What are the trading implications and key levels for USDJPY, gold, oil and..