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Results: 451 to 460 of 1,000
Results: 451 to 460 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: Oil Trading Misconceptions
by Ashraf Laidi | Jan 9, 2020 15:20
ldquo;There is a war, let's buy oil” seems to be an oft-repeated....Instead of arguing whether war will break out in the Middle East, it's....A new Premium video below has been issued to our Premium subscribers,....Starting with Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait in early August 1990,....Oil peaked 2 months later at $41, before descending on downward spiral ahead....What about the US invasion of Iraq in March 2003? Oil began rising in the....50 in December 2002 to $40 in February of 2003...Oil fell in the subsequent three months back to mid 20s...Some might say: “But oil rose throughout the rest of 2003 and 2004....Yes, and so did every other commodity and currency against the US dollar, as....Also, don't forget china headed off an infrasctrure building boom, sending....What about now? In an age of excess oil supply courtesy of debt-ridden frackers,..
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Intraday Market Thought: Fed May Edge Off Sidelines
by Adam Button | Jan 29, 2020 13:10
Markets resume their broad rebound, powered by strong Apple earnings even as....Bear in mind that firms in the Hubei area are prevented from resuming work....As we move today's Fed decision, market is currently pricing in a 28%....US interest rates haven't moved much in the past decade but the Fed has....Policymakers are clearly and explicitly on the sidelines heading into Wednesday&....Meanwhile, in US politics, Bernie Sanders regains the lead among his....The USD is up against all major currencies, but lower vs gold and silver...NZD and CHF are the weakest...Hard vs Soft Data....Tuesday's US data gave the Fed few things to think about: Consumer....On net, the forward-looking numbers are good but they're also the more-....The problem is that coronavirus has already replaced, if not surpassed, that....With China's economy at a virtual halt for at least the next week, the....That presents the Fed with a difficult decision...If Powell takes a step off the sidelines, then the market may rush into pricing....The market is currently pricing in a 28% chance of a cut in June, rising to 77%....The timing of this meeting is especially tough with the next one not scheduled....In the interim, the coronavirus scare will either result in a full-blown....If the Fed does edge off the sidelines, it will once again reinforce that they....That will be comforting to equities and keep the bid in bonds...The decision is at 1900 GMT with a press conference 30 minutes later...No new forecasts are due.
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Intraday Market Thought: 3 Charts for GBP Traders
by Ashraf Laidi | Feb 21, 2020 13:18
GBP traders step back and take a look at 3 key charts: GBP trade weighted index,....Full charts and analysis.
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Intraday Market Thought: Quarter-End Flows Unwind
by Adam Button | Apr 2, 2020 13:09
The only real change in fundamentals Tuesday was the turn of the calendar,....The yen was the top performer while the Canadian dollar lagged...Today, gold, silver and GBP are at the lead...US weekly jobless claims numbers are up next (more below)....The Premium Insights' short in #DOW30 opened on Tuesday was closed....Talk of month-end rebalancing and quarter-end flows completely captivated....It was a classic and much more orderly risk-off day as USD/JPY fell to a three-....It's a signal we're entering the second-phase of coronavirus...The Fed stopped it from being a financial crisis and that was some....Even in Italy where the crisis has clearly hit some kind of plateau, there&....In China, a region of 600,000 people was locked down on a sign of the virus'....Back in the US, the Fed announced it will allow US banks to use more leverage....Looking ahead, the market will once again focus on weekly US initial jobless....The consensus is 3...5m up from 3...28m last week but estimates are extremely wide from 1...5m to 6...5m...At this point, the survey is probably overrated and won't be a lasting....We would love to know true measures of job losses but this survey is more of a....For reference, Canada now says it has processed 2...1m jobless claims benefits in the past two weeks...That's a full 10% of the workforce and would correspond to 21 million job....Is that magnitude priced into US assets? It should be but probably isn't...Frequently during this crisis we see markets reluctant to fully accept the....With non-farm payrolls also surveyed before March 12, we may have to continue..
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Intraday Market Thought: Video Open to Everyone
by Ashraf Laidi | Apr 23, 2020 20:29
Many English speakers visiting my website asked why do Arabic speakers get....So how about a Ramadan gift to non-Arabic speakers? I am opening access to....Good luck...Full Video..
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Intraday Market Thought: Yen Slumps in Month-End, Beware of Gap Misinterpretations
by Adam Button | Apr 30, 2020 23:02
Month-end added another dose of volatility to the FX market...nbsp; In early Friday, JPY is leading across the board as futures drop after....This week's Premium Video (below) examines the widespread question on....Be careful...Tuesday's DAX long hit its final target of 11230, which is the high on....The March 8 gap down was not filled, but Ashraf warns against getting hasty in....nbsp;....The yen is leading today but was sold heavily into month end as the market....US data showed a 7...5% drop in March personal spending, much worse than the 5...0% decline expected...Initial jobless claims were moderately worse than expected at nearly 4 million,....That comes on the heels of a miss in GDP on Wednesday and Fed commentary that....The equity market acknowledged the risk and the S&P 500 fell back below the....8% retracement of the March rout...On the month, the Australian dollar was easily the top performing major while....The theme right now is undoubtedly the incredible amount of stimulus from....The thinking is that taxpayers will bear the losses from the virus rather than....The big question now is the duration of the slowdown...Economies are going to open in May and we don't know how the consumer will....The Chinese experience shows some trepidation and that was in a seemingly-....In the day ahead we will get another reading how bad the situation is for....The Chicago PMI on Thursday was at 35...4 compared to 47...8 in March and the 37...7 consensus...On Friday, the ISM manufacturing report is forecast to fall to 36...0 from 49...1...Traders will watch the New Orders and Prices Paid components for the internals....But bear in mind that the services print of the ISM remains above at 50 (50...2), highlighting the strength of tech and internet industry during the Covid-..
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Intraday Market Thought: Opening Access to English Video
by Ashraf Laidi | May 13, 2020 20:10
Im opening access to Tuesday's Premium Video to help you understand our....nbsp; Full Video.
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Intraday Market Thought: Indices Tire Despite Fed's Main Street Punch Bowl
by Adam Button | Jun 9, 2020 10:10Gold and yen hold on to their gains after most currencies pulled back vs USD....The developments emerge after indices added to their gains on Monday in the....A new Premium Trade has been issued with the suppport of 3 charts & 4 notes....Global equities continued to roar on Monday with the S&P 500 wiping out....In the bigger picture, there are inbalances brewing...Treasury yields were lower at the long end Monday and crude fell...Bears remain fixated on the 200-DMA on VIX, oil's failed break of the March....98% resistance...The yen's Monday rally was a bit of a puzzle...There was talk of short-covering and call buying...US Treasury yields also ticked lower at the long end...Yen repatriation and banking flows are another possibility...Naturally, we have to consider that risk assets are cycling into safer havens....The Fed also made a surprise announcement about its $600B Main Street....A host of changes to the program made it easier for the companies to get the....There isn't a thought about taking away the punch bowl and if that's the....The day ahead is a light one on the US calendar but we will get a better sense....nbsp;.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Opening Video to All فيديو الأمس مفتوح للكل
by Ashraf Laidi | Aug 7, 2020 12:50Yesterday's video open to all فيديو الأمس مفتوح للكل.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Dollar Runs out, GBP Storms on
by Adam Button | Aug 20, 2020 18:07The market sent a strong message to the FOMC on Wednesday: Keep the printing....The US retraces half of Wenesday's post-FOMC gains as indices rebound, led....GBP is the best currency of the day and on the week...Ashraf reminds us GBPUSD's 5...6% July gain was the highest monthly rise since May 2009...Premium subscribers have two GBP-related trades, one is breakeeven and the other....US jobless came in at 1...1 mn, higher than the exp 920K and prev 971K, while August Philly Fed fell to 17....Those who wish to learn after-the-fact, can find out in yesterday's video....nbsp; NASDAQ fell to 11220 before rebounding to 11420s...So what's next? ....فيديو المشتركين جاهز حان وقت الدخول بدون تسرع...The US dollar was strong throughout New York trade on Wednesday but got an extra....The report from the July 27-28 Fed meeting highlighted that 'many' Fed....The market emphasized that last point as the dollar jumped and risk trades ebbed...More than ever, the market has a gun to the Fed's head and doesn't want to hear....The minutes also said the US virus resurgence would slow H2 growth more....On the latter point, US retailer target reported impressive sales growth in Q2....The reversal in the dollar stopped what looked like a breakout in the euro,....Both broke out of ranges to multi-month highs on Tuesday but were sucked back to....Gold also abruptly reversed in a $75 drop...Is this a game-changer? It's not...The expectations for more Fed help are modest and none of the comments in the....Combined with stimulus uncertainty and high stock valuations, there is a chance..
