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Results: 461 to 470 of 1,000
Results: 461 to 470 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: Indices Tire Despite Fed's Main Street Punch Bowl
by Adam Button | Jun 9, 2020 10:10Gold and yen hold on to their gains after most currencies pulled back vs USD....The developments emerge after indices added to their gains on Monday in the....A new Premium Trade has been issued with the suppport of 3 charts & 4 notes....Global equities continued to roar on Monday with the S&P 500 wiping out....In the bigger picture, there are inbalances brewing...Treasury yields were lower at the long end Monday and crude fell...Bears remain fixated on the 200-DMA on VIX, oil's failed break of the March....98% resistance...The yen's Monday rally was a bit of a puzzle...There was talk of short-covering and call buying...US Treasury yields also ticked lower at the long end...Yen repatriation and banking flows are another possibility...Naturally, we have to consider that risk assets are cycling into safer havens....The Fed also made a surprise announcement about its $600B Main Street....A host of changes to the program made it easier for the companies to get the....There isn't a thought about taking away the punch bowl and if that's the....The day ahead is a light one on the US calendar but we will get a better sense....nbsp;.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Opening Video to All فيديو الأمس مفتوح للكل
by Ashraf Laidi | Aug 7, 2020 12:50Yesterday's video open to all فيديو الأمس مفتوح للكل.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Dollar Runs out, GBP Storms on
by Adam Button | Aug 20, 2020 18:07The market sent a strong message to the FOMC on Wednesday: Keep the printing....The US retraces half of Wenesday's post-FOMC gains as indices rebound, led....GBP is the best currency of the day and on the week...Ashraf reminds us GBPUSD's 5...6% July gain was the highest monthly rise since May 2009...Premium subscribers have two GBP-related trades, one is breakeeven and the other....US jobless came in at 1...1 mn, higher than the exp 920K and prev 971K, while August Philly Fed fell to 17....Those who wish to learn after-the-fact, can find out in yesterday's video....nbsp; NASDAQ fell to 11220 before rebounding to 11420s...So what's next? ....فيديو المشتركين جاهز حان وقت الدخول بدون تسرع...The US dollar was strong throughout New York trade on Wednesday but got an extra....The report from the July 27-28 Fed meeting highlighted that 'many' Fed....The market emphasized that last point as the dollar jumped and risk trades ebbed...More than ever, the market has a gun to the Fed's head and doesn't want to hear....The minutes also said the US virus resurgence would slow H2 growth more....On the latter point, US retailer target reported impressive sales growth in Q2....The reversal in the dollar stopped what looked like a breakout in the euro,....Both broke out of ranges to multi-month highs on Tuesday but were sucked back to....Gold also abruptly reversed in a $75 drop...Is this a game-changer? It's not...The expectations for more Fed help are modest and none of the comments in the....Combined with stimulus uncertainty and high stock valuations, there is a chance.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Risk Rocked Ahead of NFP
by Adam Button | Sep 3, 2020 22:42
The weight of a months-long one-way rally in equities finally became too....When correlations break, trends reverse...The yen was the top performer while the kiwi lagged...The US and Canada August jobs reports are due up next...Below is Thursday's Premium Video, making the case for a pre-trade...nbsp;....We have been highlighting the breakdown in correlations this week as the US....We also highlighted the ugly reversals Wednesday in shares of Apple and Tesla...Ashraf is comparing Wednesday's bearish outside day candle on Apple to....nbsp;....Those were crucial signs indicating that trouble was coming...Of course, there are always negative signs in a bull market and the timing of....At best, the risk-reward to the downside this week was increasingly tilted....Weekly jobless claims at 881K compared to 950K were better than expected,....Unadjusted claims and total ongoing claims were both higher on the week...The ISM services index had a fractional miss at 56...9 vs 57...0 expected...There was no knee-jerk move on either...Instead it was a soft open to equities that cascaded as high-flying tech stocks....A rush to the exits was compounded by a rush into instruments like SQQQ (ultra-....While the world has been infected by COVID-19, the market has been overcome....A pattern of easy money driving up equities followed by swift corrections....Outside of stock markets, the price action was much less dramatic and that&....EUR/USD finished the day flat after an early drop...The commodity currencies fell, but only in the 60-80 pip range...Notably, several risk-sensitive EM currencies like MXN and BRL finished....Outside of FX, the bond market was also well-behaved...Looking ahead, the US is expected to add 1350K jobs in August...About a fifth of those jobs will be due to temporary census hiring but the....Many schools delaying the reopening could compound the usual seasonal....Expect the market to focus on the details...The Canadian jobs report is also due and forecast to show a +250K net change.
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Intraday Market Thought: Britain Breaks Brexit Law
by Adam Button | Sep 8, 2020 14:57
Cable fell for the 5th day on Tuesday (-4% from last week's high) as PM....GBP's selloff was worsened by the resignation of Jonathan Jones, UK's....Indices are taking a fresh dive lower in a classic riskoff, where JPY was the....GBPUSD 1-month volatility hit 3-mth highs, with weekly chart eyeing 15...0...nbsp; NASDAQ and Tesla are down 10% and 30% from their highs respectively,....nbsp;The yen is the highest performer of the day, followed by the dollar CFTC....Below is Ashraf's GBPUSD and EURGBP calls to members of the VIP WhatsApp....nbsp;A new Premium trade was issued earlier today...Cable fell more than 100 pips Monday after Johnson set an Oct 15 deadline for....So far progress on the stick parts of an agreement has been almost nil...Even worse, the EU warned Johnson against reneging on parts of the....The UK PM said he is willing to walk away rather than compromise on core....For now the market is showing some concern but we've been through the....Brinksmanship is part of the game and all of the tabloid-driven fearmongering....The makes it more of a question of when to buy a dip, not when to sell a rally...Near term eyes will be on 1...30 followed by 1...28...The US and Canada are back from holiday on Tuesday but the economic calendar is....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +197K vs +212K prior...GBP +6K vs +5K prior...JPY +30K vs +24K prior...CHF +12K vs +12K prior...CAD -27K vs -29K prior...AUD 0K vs -4K prior...NZD +7K vs +4K prior...There is a large concentrated bet in EUR/USD but little else on the speculative....Note that every currency is in a net long position versus the US dollar,..
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Intraday Market Thought: FX Tectonic Plates Shifting
by Adam Button | Sep 11, 2020 15:40Brexit, the ECB and other round of risk aversion led to another strong dollar....GBP continues to lag all currrencies as the UK insists on introducing a new bill....nbsp; Tuesday's Premium short in GBPUSD hit its final target of 12820 for....The DOW30 trade is currently +600 pips in the green...A few notes on today's indices dynamics are found in bottom paragraph...Brexit talks are going off the rails and the pound was sold hard in response...The EU set an end-of-month deadline to withdraw legislation that would violate....In addition, Barnier published a scathing statement on the stalled....In response cable, fell 230 pips to stabilize the June high – a level....The ball is clearly in Boris Johnson's court at this point and if he backs down....Beyond that, it's now clear that we're in a period of elevated Brexit tensions....The other big story on Thursday was Lagarde's press conference...Lane put her in a tough spot on the currency because there was no real path....She was repeatedly asked about the euro and said they're monitoring it closely,....The result was a 50-pip jump in the euro, which was eroded alongside indices....BoC's Macklem was also asked about the currency and delivered a response....The difference was that expectations were low for him and there was no FX....Mixed in with all the news was another negative jolt to risk appetite...The US dollar was soft early in the day as stocks opened solidly higher but....In spite of all the macro news – including a soft jobless claims report....The S&P 500 touched Tuesday's low late in the day and closed just above it;....So what/where are the flows today?....Ashraf laid out his Friday plan for DOW30 and SPX after Thursday's close....The plan is based on a manifestation of intraday cyclicals, which are so far....Will update you later in the day...nbsp;....nbsp;.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Dollar Crosshairs
by Adam Button | Sep 15, 2020 15:58
A rebound in risk appetite Monday underscored the vulnerability of the....Silver and gold lead currencies against the USD, followed by GBP and AUD, while....But will EURUSD be able to break out of 1...20 and will XAUUSD close above 1977/80? Ashraf raises a crucial point about....nbsp;....فيديو المشتركين قبل لقاء الفدرالي...Markets We are slowly shifting towards a clear paradigm where the default mode....Mondays rebound in risk appetite was coupled with significant dollar selling,....The price action Monday also underscored the shifting post-pandemic paradigm:....The breakdown in USD/MXN continued...We're in the post-yield world and that means that valuations and growth....There are plenty of pockets of value in the US – including real estate....Some of that is justified by past performance and the omnipresence of US....Question about the Fed: Will the Fed finally make its formal amendment....What do you think?....A good sign in the US and elsewhere is that GDP estimates in Q3 are climbing....The latest indications will come in the September Empire Fed at 1230 GMT...The consensus is a +6...7 reading, up from +3...7 previously...The Fed decision on Wednesdays should put a chill on trading in the lead-up....Talk around the Fed this time is minimal with few expecting any real policy..
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Intraday Market Thought: Central Bank Shifts Obscured by ‘Deadlines’
by Adam Button | Oct 21, 2020 17:23USD's facing its biggest decline in 3 months, but stocks are negative...Such unusual moves can be attributed to choppy market climate/uncertainty, or....GBP was the biggest winner on a double dose of positive news (Brexit talks....Another fake political deadline coming and going Tuesday was a reminder to....A new Premium trade was posted yesterday, adding the number of open trades to 5...nbsp; Below are a series of Ashraf's tweets regarding today's unsusual....nbsp;....Perhaps we were naïve to think Pelosi's stimulus negation deadline was....She held another round of talks with Mnuchin on Tuesday as her 48-hour self-....Afterwards, she said negotiations would continue for another day, leaving no....We've seen so many Brexit and political deadlines ignored in the past few years....That said, we're now 13 days to the US election and that is a genuine deadline...Next Monday the US Senate will also take up the confirmation of Amy Comey....So maybe we weren't naïve to see the deadline as a bluff, but naïve....For his part, Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell said he will have a vote....In the world of central banking, the RBA underscored two ongoing shifts in the....The first is more open-mindedness towards negative rates, or getting....AUD was rattled Tuesday by that talk and the BOC earlier this month also left....The second is the abandonment of forward-looking inflation targeting in favor of....The idea has taken central banks by storm as a way to strongly reinforce....The market is still skeptical that central banks will hold rates near zero.. -
Intraday Market Thought: FX & Commodities 2020
by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 18, 2020 17:57
What year for the poor US dollar ! All those USD bulls who went on record to....or April have made a swift disappearing act...Readers of this website may have grown tired of Ashraf's USD-bearish calls....Below is the December and Year-to-Date % performance for 8 currencies and 11....Full analysis here..
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Intraday Market Thought: Yields Break Metals, Cryptos
by Adam Button | Jan 11, 2021 14:49
The prolonged jump in bond yields continues to uneash damage to metals and....Ashraf tweeted earlier today: "The ONLY way for metals to stabilize is for....As yields soar, metals plummet; #XAUUSD says goodbye to 200DMA & #Bitcoin....that 27% crash in March" Both of Friday's Premium trades....nbsp;Below is one of the latest tradable charts Ashraf shared with the WhatsApp....nbsp;....President-elect Biden promised to reveal a new spending proposal worth “....The new wave of spending combined with the $900B just issue threatens to upend....nbsp;....The US dollar has been the top-performing major currency since the....Yes, the spending will create an enormous deficit but it will also lead....Goldman Sachs is forecasting +6...2% GDP growth this year and that's before the details of the package on....Another thing to consider is that the US (and UK) are receiving vaccine doses....On Friday, non-farm payrolls were soft but commentary from Clarida the same day....He also said policy is “exactly where we want it,” which likely....It means the next move from the Fed will be towards tightening...On QE he said he 'expects' to keep the pace through 2021 but he didn&....Short-dollar is a strong consensus trade in 2021 and there are a multitude of....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +143K vs +143K prior...GBP +4K vs +5K prior...JPY +50K vs +47K prior...CHF +9K vs +12K prior...CAD +14K vs +15K prior...AUD -4K vs -7K prior...NZD +12K vs +15K prior...nbsp;..
