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Results: 461 to 470 of 1,000
Results: 461 to 470 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: Risk Rocked Ahead of NFP
by Adam Button | Sep 3, 2020 22:42
The weight of a months-long one-way rally in equities finally became too....When correlations break, trends reverse...The yen was the top performer while the kiwi lagged...The US and Canada August jobs reports are due up next...Below is Thursday's Premium Video, making the case for a pre-trade...nbsp;....We have been highlighting the breakdown in correlations this week as the US....We also highlighted the ugly reversals Wednesday in shares of Apple and Tesla...Ashraf is comparing Wednesday's bearish outside day candle on Apple to....nbsp;....Those were crucial signs indicating that trouble was coming...Of course, there are always negative signs in a bull market and the timing of....At best, the risk-reward to the downside this week was increasingly tilted....Weekly jobless claims at 881K compared to 950K were better than expected,....Unadjusted claims and total ongoing claims were both higher on the week...The ISM services index had a fractional miss at 56...9 vs 57...0 expected...There was no knee-jerk move on either...Instead it was a soft open to equities that cascaded as high-flying tech stocks....A rush to the exits was compounded by a rush into instruments like SQQQ (ultra-....While the world has been infected by COVID-19, the market has been overcome....A pattern of easy money driving up equities followed by swift corrections....Outside of stock markets, the price action was much less dramatic and that&....EUR/USD finished the day flat after an early drop...The commodity currencies fell, but only in the 60-80 pip range...Notably, several risk-sensitive EM currencies like MXN and BRL finished....Outside of FX, the bond market was also well-behaved...Looking ahead, the US is expected to add 1350K jobs in August...About a fifth of those jobs will be due to temporary census hiring but the....Many schools delaying the reopening could compound the usual seasonal....Expect the market to focus on the details...The Canadian jobs report is also due and forecast to show a +250K net change.
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Intraday Market Thought: Britain Breaks Brexit Law
by Adam Button | Sep 8, 2020 14:57
Cable fell for the 5th day on Tuesday (-4% from last week's high) as PM....GBP's selloff was worsened by the resignation of Jonathan Jones, UK's....Indices are taking a fresh dive lower in a classic riskoff, where JPY was the....GBPUSD 1-month volatility hit 3-mth highs, with weekly chart eyeing 15...0...nbsp; NASDAQ and Tesla are down 10% and 30% from their highs respectively,....nbsp;The yen is the highest performer of the day, followed by the dollar CFTC....Below is Ashraf's GBPUSD and EURGBP calls to members of the VIP WhatsApp....nbsp;A new Premium trade was issued earlier today...Cable fell more than 100 pips Monday after Johnson set an Oct 15 deadline for....So far progress on the stick parts of an agreement has been almost nil...Even worse, the EU warned Johnson against reneging on parts of the....The UK PM said he is willing to walk away rather than compromise on core....For now the market is showing some concern but we've been through the....Brinksmanship is part of the game and all of the tabloid-driven fearmongering....The makes it more of a question of when to buy a dip, not when to sell a rally...Near term eyes will be on 1...30 followed by 1...28...The US and Canada are back from holiday on Tuesday but the economic calendar is....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +197K vs +212K prior...GBP +6K vs +5K prior...JPY +30K vs +24K prior...CHF +12K vs +12K prior...CAD -27K vs -29K prior...AUD 0K vs -4K prior...NZD +7K vs +4K prior...There is a large concentrated bet in EUR/USD but little else on the speculative....Note that every currency is in a net long position versus the US dollar,..
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Intraday Market Thought: FX Tectonic Plates Shifting
by Adam Button | Sep 11, 2020 15:40Brexit, the ECB and other round of risk aversion led to another strong dollar....GBP continues to lag all currrencies as the UK insists on introducing a new bill....nbsp; Tuesday's Premium short in GBPUSD hit its final target of 12820 for....The DOW30 trade is currently +600 pips in the green...A few notes on today's indices dynamics are found in bottom paragraph...Brexit talks are going off the rails and the pound was sold hard in response...The EU set an end-of-month deadline to withdraw legislation that would violate....In addition, Barnier published a scathing statement on the stalled....In response cable, fell 230 pips to stabilize the June high – a level....The ball is clearly in Boris Johnson's court at this point and if he backs down....Beyond that, it's now clear that we're in a period of elevated Brexit tensions....The other big story on Thursday was Lagarde's press conference...Lane put her in a tough spot on the currency because there was no real path....She was repeatedly asked about the euro and said they're monitoring it closely,....The result was a 50-pip jump in the euro, which was eroded alongside indices....BoC's Macklem was also asked about the currency and delivered a response....The difference was that expectations were low for him and there was no FX....Mixed in with all the news was another negative jolt to risk appetite...The US dollar was soft early in the day as stocks opened solidly higher but....In spite of all the macro news – including a soft jobless claims report....The S&P 500 touched Tuesday's low late in the day and closed just above it;....So what/where are the flows today?....Ashraf laid out his Friday plan for DOW30 and SPX after Thursday's close....The plan is based on a manifestation of intraday cyclicals, which are so far....Will update you later in the day...nbsp;....nbsp;.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Dollar Crosshairs
by Adam Button | Sep 15, 2020 15:58
A rebound in risk appetite Monday underscored the vulnerability of the....Silver and gold lead currencies against the USD, followed by GBP and AUD, while....But will EURUSD be able to break out of 1...20 and will XAUUSD close above 1977/80? Ashraf raises a crucial point about....nbsp;....فيديو المشتركين قبل لقاء الفدرالي...Markets We are slowly shifting towards a clear paradigm where the default mode....Mondays rebound in risk appetite was coupled with significant dollar selling,....The price action Monday also underscored the shifting post-pandemic paradigm:....The breakdown in USD/MXN continued...We're in the post-yield world and that means that valuations and growth....There are plenty of pockets of value in the US – including real estate....Some of that is justified by past performance and the omnipresence of US....Question about the Fed: Will the Fed finally make its formal amendment....What do you think?....A good sign in the US and elsewhere is that GDP estimates in Q3 are climbing....The latest indications will come in the September Empire Fed at 1230 GMT...The consensus is a +6...7 reading, up from +3...7 previously...The Fed decision on Wednesdays should put a chill on trading in the lead-up....Talk around the Fed this time is minimal with few expecting any real policy..
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Intraday Market Thought: Central Bank Shifts Obscured by ‘Deadlines’
by Adam Button | Oct 21, 2020 17:23USD's facing its biggest decline in 3 months, but stocks are negative...Such unusual moves can be attributed to choppy market climate/uncertainty, or....GBP was the biggest winner on a double dose of positive news (Brexit talks....Another fake political deadline coming and going Tuesday was a reminder to....A new Premium trade was posted yesterday, adding the number of open trades to 5...nbsp; Below are a series of Ashraf's tweets regarding today's unsusual....nbsp;....Perhaps we were naïve to think Pelosi's stimulus negation deadline was....She held another round of talks with Mnuchin on Tuesday as her 48-hour self-....Afterwards, she said negotiations would continue for another day, leaving no....We've seen so many Brexit and political deadlines ignored in the past few years....That said, we're now 13 days to the US election and that is a genuine deadline...Next Monday the US Senate will also take up the confirmation of Amy Comey....So maybe we weren't naïve to see the deadline as a bluff, but naïve....For his part, Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell said he will have a vote....In the world of central banking, the RBA underscored two ongoing shifts in the....The first is more open-mindedness towards negative rates, or getting....AUD was rattled Tuesday by that talk and the BOC earlier this month also left....The second is the abandonment of forward-looking inflation targeting in favor of....The idea has taken central banks by storm as a way to strongly reinforce....The market is still skeptical that central banks will hold rates near zero.. -
Intraday Market Thought: FX & Commodities 2020
by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 18, 2020 17:57
What year for the poor US dollar ! All those USD bulls who went on record to....or April have made a swift disappearing act...Readers of this website may have grown tired of Ashraf's USD-bearish calls....Below is the December and Year-to-Date % performance for 8 currencies and 11....Full analysis here..
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Intraday Market Thought: Yields Break Metals, Cryptos
by Adam Button | Jan 11, 2021 14:49
The prolonged jump in bond yields continues to uneash damage to metals and....Ashraf tweeted earlier today: "The ONLY way for metals to stabilize is for....As yields soar, metals plummet; #XAUUSD says goodbye to 200DMA & #Bitcoin....that 27% crash in March" Both of Friday's Premium trades....nbsp;Below is one of the latest tradable charts Ashraf shared with the WhatsApp....nbsp;....President-elect Biden promised to reveal a new spending proposal worth “....The new wave of spending combined with the $900B just issue threatens to upend....nbsp;....The US dollar has been the top-performing major currency since the....Yes, the spending will create an enormous deficit but it will also lead....Goldman Sachs is forecasting +6...2% GDP growth this year and that's before the details of the package on....Another thing to consider is that the US (and UK) are receiving vaccine doses....On Friday, non-farm payrolls were soft but commentary from Clarida the same day....He also said policy is “exactly where we want it,” which likely....It means the next move from the Fed will be towards tightening...On QE he said he 'expects' to keep the pace through 2021 but he didn&....Short-dollar is a strong consensus trade in 2021 and there are a multitude of....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +143K vs +143K prior...GBP +4K vs +5K prior...JPY +50K vs +47K prior...CHF +9K vs +12K prior...CAD +14K vs +15K prior...AUD -4K vs -7K prior...NZD +12K vs +15K prior...nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: 5 Themes & 6 Charts to Watch
by Adam Button | Feb 12, 2021 19:00
Meme stocks continue to make waves but economic data and central banks are....As the market continues to look past the virus, few themes have emerged...Inflation and US stimulus are commonly-cited ones but we go on the hunt for....Below are a few intermarket charts from Ashraf, telling the clear story in....nbsp; ....1) Europe's Struggles....The financial crisis started in the US and the pandemic in Asia but it will be....Before the pandemic, Italian GDP still hadn't recovered to 2007 levels...A moment of reckoning is coming for a region that's failing to deliver far....The euro has been a wonderful solution to 20th century problems, but is failing....2) China Still Looms....On Thursday the EU urged the US to rejoin the WTO and align foreign policy....The pandemic has accelerated the relative rise of China and there's....In the leaked EU documents, they say the rise of China's state-capitalist....rdquo; Biden and Xi also held a two-hour phone call on Wednesday and we don'....3) The Velocity of Money....We've touched on this before in relation to the high savings rate...Coming out of the financial crisis QE led to a jump in M2 but cautious lending....Financial markets and housing now might be early indications that this time the....4) Commodity Super(fast)cycle....In any other year, the massive rally in virtually every commodity would be the....Oil has had its best start to a year since 1990 while industrial metals began....Shortages are everywhere and the reverberations through the global supply..
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Intraday Market Thought: SLR, Banks, Oil & USD
by Adam Button | Mar 19, 2021 18:54
USD ends the week on a strong note against most currency on a combination....FX traders are increasingly watching the rapid improvement in the US yield....nbsp; Oil is up 2% after yesterday's 7% drop, which was the 3rd biggest....We'll get plenty more Powell next week, as he will testify alongside....The charts below appear to support broadening signs of tightening financial....nbsp;....Earlier today, stocks were dealt a mini shock, with USD gaining across the board....But the announcement seems to be a work-in-progress, with the possibility of....Yields are somewhat stabilizing under 1...73%, after Thursday's overshoot set off an earthquake of selling in....The BOJ deserves some of the credit as well after details of the policy review....One market where there was no news was crude yet that was the biggest move on....WTI crude fell nearly $7...00 to as low as $58...20 As a result, USD/CAD jumped more than 100 pips to 1...2548, breaking a streak of 7 daily declines...The stretched trends help to explain the moves in both...WTI has rallied from the election-eve low of $33...64 to the March 8 high of $67...98 – a 102% rally...Along the way, crude formed a tidy uptrend but it was shattered on Thursday...So how far could crude fall? The 38...2% Fibonacci retracement of the Nov-March rally is at $54...86 and 50% is at $50...81...Closer is the 55-day moving average at $57...17 with the 100-dma at $50...85...None of those would be outside the scope of a healthy correction...If anything, they would ensure OPEC+ retains discipline even longer...Ultimately, a drop to $50 oil would be a sparkling opportunity because..
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Intraday Market Thought: Watch the Pacific not the Suez
by Adam Button | Mar 25, 2021 14:32
As you get fixated on another Powell speech, another testimony by Tech giants....SEE BELOW...nbsp;Later today, the US sells 7-year Treasury notes for the first time since....Meanwhile, DXY and USDCNH continue to push higher as warned by Ashraf in....The video also covers the way SPX/OIL and crude are watched and traded...Two of the least-affected areas in the world during the pandemic have been....China walked back tightening talk recently but it hasn't done any good....The Hang Seng fell hard for a second day on Wednesday and is now down 11% from....That's despite a weakening of the yuan over that period...The Australian dollar also continues to struggle and is threatening the February....What's especially troubling is that both AUD/USD and the Hang Seng have....Recent Chinese data on trade, industrial production and retail sales has all....The pandemic is clearly part of the problem...Variants are leading to another wave outside of the UK, US and a few other....Could it be as simple as virus fears? That's tough to believe given that....There is little else to fret about but the technical signals are unmistakable....Another spot to keep a close eye on is bonds...A US 5-year sale was a touch soft on Wednesday and it will be 7s on Thursday...A month ago, a terrible reception at the 7-year sale set off all kinds of alarm....The results are due out just after 1700 GMT.
