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  • Intraday Market Thought: Awaiting Evans as Taper Timeline Pulls Forward

    by Adam Button | Aug 10, 2021 20:17
    Awaiting Evans as Taper Timeline Pulls Forward Chart Recent price action in gold, bonds and the US dollar on Monday underscores a....USD lost ground today against most commodity currencies, with CAD, AUD and....US 10 year yield post their 5th straight daily gain, appearing to eyere their....40% ahead of Wednesday's US CPI...Chicago Fed president Charles Evans, a notable Fed dove speaks today...The Premium trade long EURCAD was stopped out at 1...47 and will be re-assessed later this week...nbsp;....Monday's JOLTS data underscored Friday's strong non-farm payrolls....It pegged June job openings at a record 10...07 million compared to 9...28M expected...The quits rate also climbed to 2...7% from 2...5%....The abundance of jobs available indicates that payrolls will stay strong....Also on Monday, the Fed's Bostic said another month or two of strong jobs....He also echoed Bullard in saying the taper should be faster than after the....The hawkish shift continues to reverberate in the market...It contributed to Monday's flash crash in precious metals and it's....At the same time, the declines Monday in oil and other commodities show the....China in particularly will eventually need to shift away from its strategy of....That could be a messy process...Looking ahead, the commentary regarding tapering has been centered around known....The dots and Powell's comments suggest that's still a minority but....He often aligns himself with the core of the FOMC and a shift from him would be..

  • Intraday Market Thought: 10 2 breaking support? منحنى العوائد

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jan 24, 2022 16:29
    Friday's post showing a possible top in US 10 year yields goes in line with....The left-hand chart shows the deterioration in the 10-2 spread,....This is usually a sign of the bond market challenging the Fed's rate....Retail traders are often advised to NOT to fight the Fed, but this does NOT....See full explanation inside the charts...nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Another Short Long Combo in Gold مضاربة الذهب على الإتجاهين

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jan 18, 2023 17:38
    Another Short Long Combo in Gold مضاربة الذهب على الإتجاهين Chart Here is another example of taking advantage of our anticipation of the....We already demonstrated how this worked in late December here...nbsp;Yesterday, we entered a short around 1913, targetting 1900, while we....It's all good to say "gold should extend higher", or "....Since November, gold made $40-$50 pullbacks in 6 occasions, respecting a....Here it is below...nbsp;   ..

  • Intraday Market Thought: GBP Does it again عملها مرة أخرى

    by Ashraf Laidi | Sep 20, 2023 13:19
    GBP Does it again عملها مرة أخرى Chart GBP knocked off by another downside surprise in UK CPI (issued earlier this....The chart below highlights the plunge in odds of a 25-bp hike for tomorrow's....The bottom chart shows GBPUSD, but the real action was in EURGBP...The WhatsApp snapshots further below, highlight Tuesday's reminder to our....Watch that EURGBP wegde...nbsp;..

  • Hot-Chart: EURGBP Revisited

    by Ashraf Laidi | Oct 16, 2024 18:35
    EURGBP Revisited Chart Is it time to look at EURGBP again? Following today's larger than....These are not a lot of rate cuts and that is why GBP has retraced most of its....This, however, can also be a source of upside opportunity for EURGBP longs....The monthly chart below, strictly from a technical stand point, displays an....Let's keep this in our radar and will update the WhatsApp Bdcast Group....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Trump's Golden Hit

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jan 22, 2026 10:58
    Trump's Golden Hit Chart Here is 90-second video on gold's movements during Trump's speech in....The apparent deal struck with Europe over Greenland has helped stocks and....Gold fell more than $100 after reaching the $4890 target first mentioned 4 weeks....I still own my nulcear and rare earths stocks, such as CCJ, OKLO, TMC....After having united Europeans over Greenland resulting from his threatsm,....China will also likely revert to its aggressive policy and rare earths will....The Maths Reminder on XAUUSD is in this video...nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Typical Trading Errors

    by Ashraf Laidi | Feb 12, 2026 10:04
    Typical Trading Errors Chart Small Traders (small in experience or in size of account) often make the common....Not necessarily because it is losing money, but because it is "doing....They want action every day...nbsp; It's premature and silly...Take a look at USDJPY for instance...Yesterday's NFP release showed a surprise jump of 2x expectations, while....3% from 4...4%....USDJPY jumped from 153...49 to 154...60, then immediately fell back to 153...00, returned to 154...00 before sliding to 152...26...There is NOISE & there is SIGNAL...Here is a 90-second video of the trade shorting USDJPY above 155 on Monday...nbsp; ....If you prefer to receive these daily analysis into your mailbox and not miss....If you already have a username and forgot your password then email us to....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Dollar Takes over from Gold for now

    by Ashraf Laidi | Mar 11, 2026 8:57
    Dollar Takes over from Gold for now Chart If you haven't see today's video, here are 3 reason why it's....Gold is increasingly moving in tandem with equity indices and against US....nbsp;....These videos/info help you trade, plan and even hedge...This material is not taught in school, university, financial TV, publications,....70-second on Youtube version...nbsp; Instagram version.

  • Intraday Market Thought: What's Close Enough for MV3?

    by Adam Button | Mar 29, 2019 14:28
    What's Close Enough for MV3? Chart Sterling is off the lows on news that as some Labour MPs said will back PM....Reports that former Brexit minister and Brexiter Dominic Raab will support May&....US personal income and inflation were both weaker than expected and CAD GDP....A new USD trade has been issued moments ago...Friday's vote won't be a full meaningful vote but it will be a....It will likely fail but if it does, the question to ask is: what's close....If she's one vote short it's not going to be the end of this round of....Is that close enough to spark some negotiations and a true MV3? It likely....At the same time, it will depend on the EU because the current extension....The other obstacle is Berkow, the speaker who may not allow a fourth vote....The balance of risks is interesting...Cable touched 1...30 now and if it all falls apart the downside emerges in the 1...25-1...28 range – so call it 5 cents...But first, let's deal with the 200-DMA support near 1...2970...nbsp; The upside upwards of 1...40 – call it 10 cents...There's a big skew there but what are the odds she can get it through?....Offering to resign is the final card she had to play and it looks like it's....However the progression of how we get higher or lower is also interesting...If there is a positive breakthough -- like the DUP supporting her deal -- the....Whereas a negative development is less likely to come on a single headline so..

  • Intraday Market Thought: FX Priorities

    by Adam Button | Jan 24, 2021 15:00
    FX Priorities Chart Let's recap the week's gentle rumblings on FX from policy makers,....nbsp; US Treasury Secretary nominee Janet Yellen said the US would adhere to....Never mind that record-breaking QE is outright manipulation of the bond market....On Thursday, ECB's Lagarde was silent on the euro's direction,....On Friday, USD reversed the week's course to rebound against all major....So what do  we make of the inv H&S in DXY? Below is Friday's....nbsp;....All currencies ended the week higher against the US dollar, but on Friday,....nbsp;....The ECB has been clear that it doesn't want a stronger euro, especially with....This week's ECB decision will be all about the levers it can pull to keep....EUR/USD has risen to 1...21 from 1...06 at the pandemic low and it's near a two-year high...More worrisome for the ECB is that if it rises another 400 pips, it will be at....The US has the ability to easily monetize debt but with eurozone deficit....That leaves policymakers in the bloc with few options in the face of FX....CNH Indication...China has shown it can be bullied by the US on the currency but with a....We have already strarted to see USD/CNH pushing further, while DXY bounced off....nbsp; Ashraf highlighted last week that USDCNH is increasingly serving as parth....nbsp;....Other countries will also have to continue to navigate US currency policy...Switzerland was named a currency manipulator in the latest Treasury....With the presidential inauguration out of the way, we keep an open mind as the....The past four years has certainly taught everyone to be ready for anything.
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