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Results: 41 to 50 of 1,000
Results: 41 to 50 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: The Slow Disintegration of Team Transitory
by Adam Button | Oct 12, 2021 14:32
Energy prices remain near their cycle highs after a brief Monday retreat,....FX continues to aggressively sell yen on the reflation trade...JOLTS and a 10-year US auction are due up next...Gold is holding up above 1764 as 10-year breakeven inflation is ticking higher,....nbsp;....Central bank comments are increasingly littered with caveats...On Monday, ECB chief economist Lane tried to lay out how wages could rise in....He called price rises 'mostly transitory' but warned they are in....In the US on Sunday, the Fed's Daly – an ardent dove – warned....Given that economies continue to reopen and there's a glut of US savings,....The FX and rates market is increasingly signaling that team transitory is losing...The latest axis is the yen, which is the traditional low yielder...The implication of strength in yen crosses is that rates divergence is....Given the big breakouts, including USD/JPY hitting a seven-year high on Monday,....It's been a slow transition for the Fed but the doves are now clearly on the....A release that's sure to spark more chatter is the August JOLTS report,....There is good reason to be skeptical of this report...Companies have taken to spamming job ads and using algorithms to screen resumes...It's the proliferation of an 'always hiring' policy that's....In any case, policymakers still believe in it and so does the market...The other event to watch will be the 10-year Treasury sale...The cash market is at 1...62% with little standing in the way of a return to the 2021 high of 1...78%..
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Intraday Market Thought: Flattening Curve & Real Yields Hit USD
by Adam Button | Oct 14, 2021 17:14
A broadening set of circumstances conspires on USD weakness--from rising....54% ad nominal 10s below 1...52%) to a flattening yield curve...Weaker than expected PPI and Wednesday's CPI-FOMC minutes interaction also....USD initially rose on signs of wage pressure in the CPI report but relented....Wednesday's rise in 2-year yields and pullback in 10-year yields triggered....The Premium long in DAX hit its final 15450 target for 300-pt gain and the....Below are the long calls in GBPJPY and XAUUSD based on the inverted H&S in....US PPI rose 0...5% in September, posting the smallest increase of the year...US CPI was slightly firmer than expected at5...4% y/y compared to the 5...3% consensus but it was the real weekly earnings component that drew attention....8% m/m compared to 0...2% previously...Initially, that led to a 20-30 pip rise in the US dollar but as the day wore on....That extends a trend of choppiness this week...Part of the reason for the decline was a surprisingly low yield in a sale of US....3 bps below what the market was expecting...With that, US 30s have fallen 13 basis points from Friday's high...It's no surprise that's dragged down the US dollar, at least in the....The Fed minutes didn't inspire much in terms of price action, but did....Both scenarios would take result in and end to the process in the middle of 2022,....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: Broken Supply Chain Part 3 & Clashing Narratives
by Ashraf Laidi | Mar 11, 2022 17:55
This month's Fed meeting was supposed to be the highlight of the....The new record high of $10845 in copper was followed by almost a new high in....The bullish equities narrative stating Russia/Ukraine's willingness to....nbsp;....Covid's damaging impact on the global supply-chain was in fact Broken-....Blocking's the world of Russia's oil, gas, wheat and industrial metals....In oil, news of further obstacles to an Iran nuclear deal has revivded US Crude....nbsp; Each passing day shows Putin digging deeper into the Ukraine with....nbsp;....There are 2 ways to break oil: 1) demand destruction due to recession; or 2)....nbsp; The 1st option is a far likelier possibility than the 2nd option, albeit....nbsp;....As for gold, it needs some sort of a break...Whether such pause extends ahead of next week's FOMC decision or after, we&....One factor remaining favourable for gold is that breakeven inflation levels is....nbsp;....3 weeks ago I laid out the case for $2200 gold to our WhatsApp Broadcast....It seems that Q2 is a more probable timing for now, before I update the next....nbsp; ..
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Intraday Market Thought: The Problem with Trading Virus Stats
by Adam Button | Apr 7, 2020 23:20
The current routine in the markets is to trade around various coronavirus....More below)....AUD was the top performer on Tuesday, while USD lagged...Ashraf posted the weekly Premium Video, highlighting why the 1929 analog for....Is it 1987, 2008, or which is it? There's also a focus on FX and last night&....nbsp;....The S&P 500 suffered its worst intraday reversal since 2008 on Tuesday....5% gain to finish 0...2% lower...Even worse, the high was in the opening minutes and the low was at the close...One of the reasons it fell was jump in deaths in the UK, New York and France,....Another was a breakdown in oil...After trading higher for most of the day, crude crumbled by 9% in 90 minutes...The virus numbers are obviously concerning from a human perspective, but....We know it's a highly infections disease that's killing around 0...5-2% of those infected...A number of places have proven it's possible to flatten the curve, including....From a human perspective, that's great news but it doesn't tell us....The key question is: When can we reopen? Clearly that's after some....The focus right now has to be on medical technology...The path to opening includes some combination of: 1) widespread infection....A fund manager survey from BMO showed a median estimate on a broad US reopening....Albeit possible, that will require major medical improvements...In the meantime, the virus stats are basically noise...One market that is trading on fundamentals is oil...Thursdays' OPEC+ meeting is the major event of the week...The US is now trying to spin economically-driven cuts from US....Up first is the weekly US inventory report at 1430 GMT on Wednesday...The consensus is for a 9 million barrel build, adding to last week's 13...8 million barrel climb in inventories.
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Intraday Market Thought: Some August Seasonals
by Adam Button | Jul 31, 2020 15:48
Consolidation in major indices remain the name of the game, while USD is mixed....Silver, gold and the Aussie are the strongest and JPY, Aussie and kiwi are....see the chart below for the July performance of major FX and metals vs....The dollar continued its slump Thursday but nearby extremes in FX and other....nbsp;Thursday's Premium trade wasted little time to enter +140-pip gain and....nbsp; Wishing you a Eid Adha Mubarak and best of blessing, peace and....nbsp;....US GDP fell a record 32...9% on an annualized basis in Q2 but as we warned yesterday, that was slightly....5% consensus...Initial jobless claims were close to the consensus but remain stubbornly high at....Continuing claims also missed the 16...2m consensus with a rise to 17...0m...That comes with emergency unemployment benefits set to run out today...Congress may be shifting towards a short-term extension of those benefits and....Another thing to watch is the turn of the calendar...August is a poor month for risk trades historically (meaning indices usually....It's also a strong one for bonds (that's negative for yields)....US 5-year rates hit a record low Thursday and 10s are now flirting with....It's held a number of times since the pandemic and a break below 0...54% would pave the way to return to the March sell-everything low of 0...30%....With the weak risk averse tone, it's no surprise that August is a negative....It's the softest for AUD/USD and NZD/USD second-softest for the loonie...The Australian dollar has easily been the best performer since mid-March, up....Be wary of a pause or worse...Another strong seasonal trend is in sterling where it's the second-....Cable has been on a sparking run to 1...31 but there is some resistance at the 1...32 and that will be a tough test after the one-way trip from 1...25...nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: Trump Twist Gift to the WhatsApp Broadcast Group
by Adam Button | Oct 6, 2020 23:02
Just when markets began to price in a big stimulus package, the President....The announcement that he was calling off stimulus talks led to a classic risk....Markets will be sorting through it in the day ahead...Below are some of today's comments from our WhatsApp Broadcast Group....Trump tweeted that stimulus talks were off on Tuesday in a surprise move...This has been a long, confusing tale that highlights the difficulty in....A deal appeared to be completely dead three weeks ago but was then resurrected....Ultimately there was no deal to be made with the gap between Republicans at $1...5T and Democrats at $2...2T too tough to breach...No doubt that liability protection and how that money was spent was also a big....While many market-watchers were pointing to Trump's health as the reason for....The reversal in those moves on this (as Trump continues to heal) bears that out...The S&P 500 gave up all its gains for the week and Treasury yields gave....In FX, commodity currencies and EM were hit hardest...Under any scenario, the decision by Trump is bizarre...A recent Times/Siena national poll showed voters overwhelmingly supported a....It's even worse to take ownership of talks breaking down by being the party....With that, the odds of a Democratic sweep on Nov 3 rise...If that happens, it's going to lead to a reversal in today's moves but....So the trade for now is probably more money in search of safety...One risk is that Trump's stimulus tweet was some kind of negotiating ploy....With this President, we're always just another tweet away from a complete..
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Intraday Market Thought: Election Scenario #3: Status Quo
by Adam Button | Nov 3, 2020 17:35
In the countdown to the election we will look at the most likely outcomes and....Today we cover 3rd possible scenario -- A Trump win with Republicans....The previous 2 scenarios were listed in Scenario 1 and Scenario 2....nbsp; ....This outcome would be a moderate surprise and another big loss for....It would be better for equity markets than a Biden with a Republican Senate as....There's also a better chance of a deal in the lame duck Senate...Trump's use of executive powers would be more favorable for stocks,....Some might argue this is the most favorable outcome for equities, if only....At the same point, it's not priced in and much of the reaction would stem....If it's similar to four years ago in that it's a clean win, then the....If it's close and contested then risks rise...Beyond that, Trump always remains a wild card and what he does next is always....In terms of the US dollar, this is the middle ground...It's not as negative as a blue wave, and not as positive as a Biden win....Beyond that, we will have to wait for guidance from policymakers in the House,....A tail risk scenario is a repeat of 2016 where Republicans win the House as well...That would be market-positive and dollar negative as it would mean more tax cuts....In the longer term, its legacy would be of Trump's formula for success....That's negative for globalization; and in any Trump-winning scenario....In all our scenarios it's tough – if not impossible – to....For better or worse, aggressive partisanship is here to stay.
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Intraday Market Thought: 80 Oil & Lasting Inflation Fears
by Adam Button | Oct 5, 2021 14:01
A long list of fears is weighing on risk appetite and adding to volatility at....A fresh rise in oil prices to a seven-year high on Monday underscores the....US crude oil is entering its 7th weekly gain, the longest series of weekly gains....nbsp; The ISM non-manufacturing survey is up next...A new Premium trade has been issued based on an imminent triangle breakout...nbsp;....There's no single catalyst behind the recent slump in global equities...Lately market watchers are pointing to the debt ceiling but we've been....Covid is clearly fading in the market's mind...Shares of vaccine makers have been falling and weekend cinema box office....Nonetheless, there's still lasting fear and concern about structural....China and Evergrande are certainly concerns, but the market has a long....We fear that 'common prosperity' is a sign of a generational shift in....Supply chain issues are clearly getting worse...Ports are backed up and there's talk about empty shelves for Christmas...It's an issue we haven't seen before and it's next-to-impossible....But none of that takes into consideration the impact of inflation...Surveys increasingly show that businesses plan to raise prices...Workers are also asking for wages...The Fed doggedly points to market-based measures of inflation but with QE, the....As yields inevitably rise, the noise around inflation will grow louder...Nasdaq is now overwhelmingly seen as a long duration asset and it's 8% off....Tech has carried much of the pandemic recovery, and we'd note that 62% of....That's beginning to show up in the high-flying tech stocks that have done....Looking ahead, at 1400 GMT, the ISM non-manufacturing survey is due up...The prior reading was 61...7 and it's expected to dip to 60...Within the report, the prices paid component was previously at 75...4 and a further rise would re-energize the inflationary chorus...nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: ISM-Clarida Shake Yields up
by Ashraf Laidi | Aug 4, 2021 17:11
Just as falling bond yields were becoming the path of least resistance, a....The pre-FOMC Premium trade in NZDUSD is now over 100-pips in the green and....nbsp; Ashraf told the WhatsApp Broadcast Group (see below) he remained long gold....nbsp;....Services ISM hit a fresh record at 64...1 with strong gains in prices paid (82...3 from 79...5) and employment (53...8 from 49...3)....Clarida doubled down on taper and rates, saying the former could start as early....10 year yields spiked from under 1...14% to over 1...20%, dragging metals and JPY across the board...Clarida's comments could grease the wheels of USD bulls on any sign of....nbsp;....Did Clarida's comments tell us anything new? Apart from telling us he....The division inside the Fed will likely grow wider, which will only lead them to....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: Housing Highlights non-Transitory Inflation
by Adam Button | Oct 19, 2021 18:54
The post-pandemic spike in US home prices flattened recently, but the....Risk trades continued to advance Tuesday with the kiwi shining...The first Bitcoin ETF started trading in the US as BTC regained the $63k mark...Overall USD weakness partly driven by the year's 2nd biggest daily decline....The US NAHB home builder survey rose on Monday to 80 from 76...Comments from large home builders underscore an overwhelming willingness....That dynamic is likely why Tuesday's housing starts and building permits....Starts were flat on single family homes while permits fell 7...7% in a surprise dip...In the bigger picture, the difficulties in building homes should fuel a longer....That's inflationary but it's also stimulative and will add to the....It will likely resolve into stronger global growth and the US filling in some....Since the financial crisis, US housing significantly underperformed developed....But these challenges are fading, and pandemic-era shifts are creating secular....Within all this, keep a close eye on lumber prices, which were written off....The futures market is extraordinarily thin and is outpacing the physical....Though it's still way below the May high of $1675, the recent trend is up...nbsp;..
