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Results: 581 to 590 of 1,000
Results: 581 to 590 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: USD Extends Weakness on China, Polls, Powell
by Adam Button | Nov 18, 2019 17:27
USD weakness extended into Monday, while US indices paused from their record-....GBP was the leading currency against USD, reaching $1...2985 after PM Johnson said each Conservative MP candidate for MP has....nbsp; on A new Premium trade was released in FX with 2 charts and 7 notes,....The pessimism comments were reported by CNBC's Beijing bureau chief Eunice....China thought both had agreed in principle...Strategy now to talk but wait due to impeachment, US election...Also prioritize China economic support...The new indications emerged after weekend chatter from China highlighted....That hardly moves the needle in terms of news but fighting it on the market side....Yet for every step forward on optimism, there's a risk of a plunge backwards....And for every 3 or 4 statements from the US side on the trade talks, Beijing....At the same time, there's a risk that trade news is overshadowing what&....There has been an undercurrent of stabilization in most of the world...On Friday, the US retail sales control group was up 0...3% to match estimates...Overall sales were also slightly stronger at +0...3% vs the +0...2% consensus...Broad economic concern has shifted to a focus on struggling global manufacturing...Friday's industrial production data in the US showed a 0...8% fall compared to -0...4% expected...It's a similar story nearly everywhere but while manufacturing....Unless that changes, there's no reason to believe this paradigm can'....Latest UK Polls....The latest figures from the UK election polls according to ICM conducted for....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR -58K vs -61K prior...GBP -28K vs -29K prior...JPY -35K vs -27K prior...CHF -15K vs -14K prior...CAD +42K vs +52K prior...AUD -41K vs -27K prior...NZD -41K vs -27K prior....The Australian and New Zealand dollar have shown some signs of life following....Watch the 100-day moving average in NZD/USD this week, currently about 35 pips....6440.
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Media: Ashraf Laidi on Eurozone Debt & Gold on AlArabiya on Dec 6, 2011
by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 7, 2011 3:11 -
Article: SPR the New Global QE?
by Ashraf Laidi | Jun 24, 2011 14:58
In order to understand the SPR release of 60 million barrels, we must go back....It was no surprise that Bernanke did not dare utter the words QE3 on Wednesday's....Yet, there was no need to refer to further easing when the FOMC already....Unlike during the end of QE1 (Feb-Mar 2010) when the US economy grew robustly....This creates inevitable continuation of US quantitative easing (reinvesting....Fed policy means US imports deflation from Asia; Asia/Latam imports inflation....ONLY SOLUTION is for IEA (ie G20) to combat the macoeconomic symptoms of weak....We consider the IEA decision to have been partially prompted by the notion....Note how that right after Bernankes conference, WTI rose by more than $2...00 to 95...70s as the market deemed further stimulus to be inevitable...CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE...As negative as they appear, both the US crude oil and S&P500 chart remain....The USD will need more than just bad news in the Eurozone to accumulate any....What was mainly seen as fiscal imbalance weighing on the USD structural....EURUSD will continue hovering between $1...40 and 1...45...Do not underestimate China's role in propping Europes debt in return for....Hence, notice....how European nations are no longer dictating Beijing over its currency....policy, leaving only the US and Canada in doing so...CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE...Click here for my CNBC-TV appearance on this topic earlier this morning...Click here to try our Premium service of daily trades & intermarket insights.
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Intraday Market Thought: PBOC Action to Further Divide the Fed
by Ashraf Laidi | Aug 11, 2015 11:01
The 1...9% devaluation in the peg of the Chinese yuan is a balancing act between....nbsp; In a nod to the IMF, China has altered the way it announces its daily....0%-- by using the previous day's close instead of an arbitrary level set....This is no surprise to those who read us here 2 days ago...nbsp;....The decision to set the daily anchor, or central rate based on the prior day'....Falling Exports, Reserves & Growth....In terms of its current account, China's slowing growth has manifested....The situation had especially deteriorated after the CNY rebounded in&....Implications for Fed Policy....Less than 24 hours after the US dollar sustained a notable sell-off following....The plunge in commodities- led by the 30% decline oil since May—is widely....Further devaluation from Beijing could be the coup de grace for commodities,....At a time when several FOMC members were considering a rate hike as early as....The decision also complicates the task of those Fed members, aiming for....Jackson Hole will be about inflation, not jobs....Considering the disinflationary US dollar and recessionary oil/mining....nbsp; Fed chair Yellen will not be present at this year's conference,....We continue to expect no rate hike this year...nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: China’s FX Reality
by Adam Button | Feb 7, 2016 23:53
January forex reserve data revealed on the weekend that China is burning....Yet the common theme remains that China wants to soften their currency...We look at the dilemma officials are facing and how it will end...In the Premium trades, Ashraf closed the USDJPY and GBPJPY shorts at 320 and 335....Many clients questioned his decision to short USDJPY 45 mins after the BoJ....quot;فيديو جديد - خاص للمشتركين العرب "التوصيات القائمة و المحتملة بعد....It's Chinese New Year Monday and markets there and in other parts of Asia....That may give markets an opportunity to stabilize as one of the factors driving....It's also a chance to try to make sense of China's strategy...Why not just allow market forces to weaken the yuan?....For Chinese officials, what's as important as the direction of the....At the moment, they see capital exiting China on jitters about the economy and....Beijing is obsessed with stability and the appearance of control...That's why they've put much effort into smoothing yuan and stock....China wants to have open markets, but only on its terms...Unfortunately, even the most well-developed, transparent markets are prone....China won't spend all its reserves to combat the inevitable loss to market....Naturally, Beijing wants to give up control on its terms but it's....The opacity of the Chinese economy will always make it vulnerable to capital....China's true dilemma is whether to accept it or change course back towards....The latter is more likely than most market participants believe...Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR -87K vs -127K prior...JPY +37K vs +50K prior...GBP -45K vs -47K prior...AUD -26K vs -33K prior...CAD -52K vs -67K prior...NZD -8K vs -5K prior....This is the first look at the data since the surprise BOJ decision...The yen long trade wasn't squeezed as much as it appeared, although the....Instead, it was euro shorts that rushed out of the way and that was before the....10.
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Intraday Market Thought: Draghi Punts, Trump Leaks on Trade
by Adam Button | Jul 22, 2016 0:14
The ECB decision was a dud as it pushed the key decisions until September...The yen was the top performer after comments from Kuroda surfaced; the kiwi....The speech from Donald Trump at the RNC is due later but a draft copy leaked....There are 8 Premium trades, including 2 in metals and 2 in JPY...The ECB didn't make any changes or tweaks to policy Thursday...Draghi said officials didn't even discuss rates or its QE program and will....The market sniffed out that nothing was coming when he used the early part of....That was Draghi's way of saying the central bank has done enough and it'....It's ground he's covered many times before but it's also....Earlier in the day, the BBC published comments from Kuroda ruling out....USD/JPY initially fell 130 pips but it recovered the majority of the losses....Later, talk of mistranslations circulated to add to the confusion...Another problem with all the 'helicopter money' chatter over the....It certainly doesn't mean literally dumping cash from helicopters and most....Yet something like the BOJ converting its holdings to perpetual zero-yield....That's essentially monetization and certainly yen-negative but not....Looking ahead, the highlight later is Donald Trump's nomination speech...A draft of his speech was leaked and the main theme is immigration but it's....Most of it is broad and covers familiar ground but in one passage he takes....rdquo;....Other events on the calendar include the 0200 GMT release of the Nikkei Japan..
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Intraday Market Thought: Gold Seasonals & Doubtful Risk Appetite
by Adam Button | Mar 5, 2019 12:10
More signs of a US-China deal boosted risk appetite initially on Monday but....nbsp; Gold is down 2% so far this month (it's only the 3rd trading day of....Data watchers keep an eye on the US Feb services ISM at 10 am NY (3 pm GMT/....4 from January's 56...7, which was the lowest in 6 months...Also watch speeches from 3 Fed officials today...A new Index trade for Premium subscribers has been issued, supported&....nbsp;....Reports of progress on a US-China trade deal and a Trump-Xi meeting at the end....Part of the reason is Huawei's announcement to file a lawsuit against....Looking ahead, there are few positive catalysts in the pipeline if a trade....Moreover, closing a deal may lead to a pivot towards the dispute in Europe and....For now, the Fed is a neutral factor and Chinese stimulus is also already priced....Also watch speeches from 3 Fed officials today (Rosengeren, Kashkari and Barkin)....Seasonally, March is a usually solid month for risk trades (but April has....On Monday, the S&P 500 peaked at the late-September highs then quickly....Don't forget that March has been the worst month for gold over the last 15....We're only 3 trading days into the month and it's alrady the worst....Looking ahead, the market is raising fresh questions about the US economy....One of the finest forward-looking indicators is the ISM non-manufacturing....The consensus is for an improvement to 57...4 from 56...7...It remains well-within expansionary territory but a soft number could spark....Also watch the sub-indices such as employment, new orders and priced paid...nbsp; Earlier today, UK services ISM improved to 51...3 from 50.....
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Intraday Market Thought: Whale Watching
by Adam Button | Feb 2, 2017 22:49
Trading daily is like fishing...You survey the scene and the weather, fish where it's best and catch a few....Sometimes they're large fish, sometimes they're small fish and....There are 6 Premium trades currently in progress ahead of Friday's US jobs....nbsp; The chart below shows the strongest and weakest vs the USD Year-to-....Once in a while something completely different comes onto the fishing radar....Something you might only see a few times in a lifetime – a whale...There is one circling now...Of course, there are always whales in the ocean and in the markets...They're huge trades that last years and the hauls are legendary...Identifying and catching them is a different game than the day-to-day trade....Trump himself isn't a whale but he is stirring up the entire ocean of....It's the official strong dollar policy of the United States...It's been the policy of the Treasury Department for a generation and markets....This week, Trump came within a stutter of saying he is going to weaken the....A weak dollar would be a panacea...It could mean higher stock markets, higher inflation, higher nominal growth,....Jawboning alone would do much of his work and it could be followed up with a....The FX winners in such a war would be the yen and euro...Both would struggle to find ammunition to fight back...An even bigger winner would be gold...It might be tomorrow, two months from now or two weeks from now but the weak-....And as Ashraf reminds me, FX & politics will shift to the France....He was long considered as ideally euro-positive due to his stance on free..
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Intraday Market Thought: GBPJPY Narrows Wedge
by Adam Button | Feb 20, 2017 23:00
The pound was the top performer while the yen lagged on Monday, we take a look....Japanese manufacturing and the RBA minutes are due later...The video for Premium subscibers focuses on gold's increasingly independent....The GBP/JPY pair is a big pip mover and was a post-crisis risk appetite....It still has some of those qualities and climbed a full cent in a quiet market....Lately we've been waiting for Article 50 and a BOJ hint on what's....On Friday, the pair tested the uptrend from the January lows and today it held....It's now traded close to current levels for 10 weeks but like all the....Naturally politics will be a driver but looking through many of the charts....GBP/JPY is consolidating from an uptrend so the bias may be to continue higher....What makes the pound and especially intriguing trade is that USD/JPY and EUR/....But with the declaration all but assured, why is the market in such suspense?....Turning to the economic calendar, both highlights will be released at 0030 GMT....It's not likely to be a market mover and the prior reading was 52...7...At the same time, the Feb RBA monetary policy meeting minutes are due...The statement was upbeat and that kicked off the latest round of AUD strength so....AUD/USD was up 20 pips on Monday to 0...7684...The 0...7700 level has been a tough area to crack...Late last week, the pair rose up to 0...7732 only to fade back below the big figure...The US returns from holiday on Tuesday, so expect markets to ramp up.
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Intraday Market Thought: Trump's Optimism Boosts USD
by Adam Button | Mar 1, 2017 3:22
Trump's speech faced a high bar in the way of the US dollar rally preceding....It was the most optimistic speech since the start of the Trump presidency...Odds of March Fed hike rose to 52%....Gold is set to post its 3rd straight daily decline, which would be for the....There are currenty 2 USD longs in the Premium trades...The Fed went on what looked like a coordinated offensive campaign to boost....The Fed's Dudley inserted himself into a jam-packed FOMC schedule this....He used it to say the case for hiking now has become a lot more compelling...The market reaction was instantaneous bond market selling and USD/JPY buying...What made it seemed coordinated was a comment from the Fed's Williams....He said a hike deserved 'serious consideration' at the meeting in two....That's an escalation from his stance at the start of the month where he said....Even before the comments, the odds of a hike were on the rise...From 37% on Thursday, to above 47% at the start of the day and above 50% by....There is far more Fedspeak scheduled this week but Dudley is a major player....In terms of economic data, Tuesday was mixed...US Q4 GDP was revised down to 1...9% from 2...1% but consumer confidence beat expectations and hit the best levels....The Fed is increasingly of the belief that the economy is recovered and that....In other news, Aussie regained its luster after Q4 GDP rose 1...1% q/q vs expectations of 0...8% q/q...Chinese manufacturing PMI rose to 51...6 vs the expected 51...2.
