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Results: 581 to 590 of 1,000
Results: 581 to 590 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: Merkel off, Bolsonaro on, Italy Downgrade off
by Adam Button | Oct 29, 2018 12:33
News that German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced stepping down from her....Markets broadened into risk on after right-wing candidate Bolsonaro was won....S&P lowered Italy's outlook to negative but maintained its BBB rating....CFTC positioning data showed a narrower yen short position, while gold....In light of the end of day-light saving time in Europe over the weekend, the....There was some fear S&P could downgrade Italy because of the....They are certainly not out of the woods with the political drama set to continue....Fitch also affirmed the UK at AA but lowered its outlook to negative as a....None of the ratings moves prompted lasting moves in the FX market...The Brazilian real is slightly stronger to start the week after right-wing....His initial comments suggested an austerity program...Brazil's Bovespa stock index is up 14% from September lows, wile most....Equity markets and risk aversion continue to dominate...US equities attempted a comeback on Friday after a soft open but the bounce....On Friday, US GDP rose 3...5% compared to 3...3% expected in part due to the strongest personal consumption since 2014...The other part was the largest inventory accumulation in over 2 years...A major drag was net exports, which trimmed 1...78 points from growth...That's a story that will remain in the focus this week with trade balance....There's been a clear deterioration this year that's reasserted itself....US data kicked off the week with an unchanged reading in September core PCE....0% y/y (Fed's inflation gauge)....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR -30K vs -29K prior...GBP -47K vs -50K prior...JPY -93K vs -101K prior...CHF -17K vs -13K prior...CAD -7K vs -11K prior...AUD -70K vs -71K prior...NZD -33K vs -35K prior....Specs were on the right side of the trade for the most part last week and....The most-crowded position, however, is short-yen and that was squeezed last..
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Intraday Market Thought: Slowdown or Recession?
by Adam Button | Dec 21, 2018 17:26
Economic data so far is showing nothing worse than a modest slowdown in global....Both cannot be right...Here are three spots to watch for early signs and a chart from Ashraf indicating....China data....Everyone has been worried about China for nearly 15 years...The growth has been unlike anything seen in history and the smooth pace is one....Could this finally be the first real test?....One problem is that data can't be trusted...It's been manipulated forever...nbsp; Guangdong abruptly stopped publishing its economic survey in....Officials said the regional industry office didn't have approval from the....One area that can't be faked is trade data...That's because it's reported for China and in the trade partner and the....Especially watch imports as they're more forward looking than exports...In November, imports rose just 3...0% y/y compared to 20...8% in October and 14...0% expected...Trade war data....Central bankers have been remarkably arrogant around trade risks...Yesterday Powell talked about their models around trade and that the impacts....Poloz has been saying the same...I don't believe you can model it and historical evidence is hard to come by...We just don't know businesses and the real economy are going to react...The key variable is stockpiling...Trump has been talking about tariffs all year and that may have led to a hidden....As tariffs hit in September, we might see an inventory drawdown, which could....At the same time, you have Trump threatening 25% tariffs on everything so....Eventually though, you hit the cliff...Signs of trouble will be in trade data and manufacturing surveys...Yesterday's release of the Philly Fed dropped to the lowest since 2016...The NY Fed's Empire index is at the lowest since March 2017....Capex data....Business investment is a leading indicator...Unfortunately core US durable goods orders have been negative for the past....Look out for commentary from corporate leaders...Earlier this week, Fedex warned about slowing global growth, particularly in....More comments along those lines would severely undercut sentiment...The risk is that companies use it as a scapegoat for poor execution.
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Intraday Market Thought: Rehn's Panic, Jobs Reports Next
by Adam Button | Jul 5, 2019 11:55
Just a few words on the ECB before we cover the jobs report...Ollie Rehn, Finnish central bank governor laid out the ECB's path....What's increasingly difficult to understand is the set of signals that....US and Canada jobs are due up next...The Video for Premium subscribers is posted below, laying out the key....Markets were relatively quiet on Thursday but Rehn – Once an ECB....He talked about forward guidance, cutting the ECB's deposit rate or....The call was so direct and dovish that was it bordered on alarmist...In late May, Rehn said the base case was to wait longer before raising rates....In terms of economic data, there is nothing blatant to justify such a....It's clear this is all about the bond market...German yields are now below the ECB's deposit rate of -0...40% all the way out to 10 years...Yields have fallen dramatically, including in Italy where they have....Yield curves everywhere are inverted...The ECB is terrified about falling inflation expectations in markets...Easing at this point sounds like a done deal and the market is increasingly....One line of thinking is that central banks know something we don't –....But history has shown that central banks are rarely privy to special knowledge....There seems to have been a sea change on inflation views along with a bond-....To combat it, the ECB is willing to risk diving deeper into experimental policy....Is that risk worth the reward? It's tough to see how it is...Onto US and Canada Jobs...The day ahead will be a big one in terms of sorting out how the underlying US....US non-farm payrolls are forecast at 160K and that leaves the market in a....If jobs are higher than 200K, then expect a USD rally along with risk....If jobs are below 100K and earnings come in within expectations, expect a....The question becomes: "Would a string jobs report mean no July rate cut....Ashraf gives his assessment before answering this in today's Premium....In Canada, meanwhile, the country is close to the best jobs growth in a....Canada unemp rate seen at 5...5% from 5...4%, while Canada payrolls expected at 10K from 28K...A soft report will be brushed aside while one above the +10K consensus will....Traders may also consider USDCAD longs in the event that US data exceeds..
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Intraday Market Thought: Beware of Mixed Intermarket Signals
by Adam Button | Aug 7, 2019 18:33
Markets are getting a lift on a combination of technical buying off key....Risk trades are bouncing as we speak after a shaky start earlier in Asia....12 respectively...The Premium long gold trade hit its final target of 1480 earlier today,....Ashraf tweeted he will lock gains & close one of the 2 existing remaining....His rationale is laid out in the video for Premium subscribers posted below....Dovish Comments from Evans....Comments from Chicago Fed's Evans stating markets headwinds are a result....0 fall), and that Fed may be called into more accommodation, are strengthening....BEWARE momentum traders wanting to chase the prevailing moves....Recapping from Monday night (early Tuesday Asia): China posted a tighter....That short-circuiting escalating trade and economic actions and sparked a....In the S&P 500, that meant a 1...3% bounce that ended near the highs of the day but other markets were less....Broadening Inversions....The inversion of the yield curve earlier in the year has led to constant head-....Not only the 3-month/10-year curve has inverted to a -35 bps (the most inverted....01 bps) leaving only the 2-year/10-year in positive territory...Here is a tweet from Ashraf earlier in the year, which is still....Gold sent a similar signal as it rose to fresh six-year highs at 1510 amid....There is nothing magical or particularly important on the chart about $1500 but....Ashraf spent 8 mins on gold in today's Premium video, calling for the....European equities will be a spot to watch closely in the day ahead...The DAX chart is particularly compelling as it once again finished Wednesday....Any follow through in the day ahead would be ominous...Perhaps most-ominous development has been in the Australian dollar...It eeked out a tiny gain Tuesday against the US dollar but has been essentially....It's suddenly at the intersection of a slowdown in China, trade concerns and..
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Intraday Market Thought: Dow Joins SPX Record, Asia Fault Lines Sharpen
by Adam Button | Nov 4, 2019 15:04
The ASEAN summit in Thailand isn't going to get the headlines it deserves....DOW30 joins SPX500 to to new highs a, helped by Chevron and Intel, while....Comments from US officials that Chinese firms would be granted licences to....CFTC positioning showed dollar net longs at the narrowest since June 2018 and....Markets turn to Christine Lagarde's first official speech in her capacity as....South east Asia is where the trade war will be fought and China made a major....A telling moment came in a meeting with Chinese Premier Li and Australian PM....Australia's finance minister recently had harsh criticism about....Yet both sides were all smiles...China has been increasingly retributive in the face of criticism but for....China also agreed to a new comprehensive free trade agreement with New Zealand...It's all part of a push to shore up trade ties in the Indo-Pacific...The US is undoubtedly watching...Indices were alse helped by comments from US Commerce Sec Wilbur Ross that....After the conclusion of the talks, Trump invited ASEAN leaders to the US for a....At the moment, the market is cheering a US-China trade truce...In the short-term that's likely to continue as risk assets break out and....The sense right now is that the truce will last until the US election...In the bigger picture, both sides are angling for a long-term economic battle....If countries like Australia and New Zealand can parlay their importance into....That could come crashing down if they're forced to choose sides...CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR -53K vs -51K prior...GBP -32K vs -52K prior...JPY -20K vs -18K prior...CHF -12K vs -11K prior...CAD +44K vs +33K prior...AUD -40K vs -48K prior...NZD -40K vs -40K prior....The fall in cable shorts was the story even though the pound was virtually....That said, heading to the sidelines during any highly-charged election is....If/when there are inevitable polling blips, there will be outsized reactions...It's tough to get an edge in that situation...At the same time, the fall in shorts may also reflect a collective belief that....The other notable change is the rise in CAD longs...Again, it demonstrates the importance of politics today...The rise in longs comes after the fog was lifted on the election and left what....In the bigger picture, the overall USD net long is now at the narrowest since..
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Intraday Market Thought: USD Extends Weakness on China, Polls, Powell
by Adam Button | Nov 18, 2019 17:27
USD weakness extended into Monday, while US indices paused from their record-....GBP was the leading currency against USD, reaching $1...2985 after PM Johnson said each Conservative MP candidate for MP has....nbsp; on A new Premium trade was released in FX with 2 charts and 7 notes,....The pessimism comments were reported by CNBC's Beijing bureau chief Eunice....China thought both had agreed in principle...Strategy now to talk but wait due to impeachment, US election...Also prioritize China economic support...The new indications emerged after weekend chatter from China highlighted....That hardly moves the needle in terms of news but fighting it on the market side....Yet for every step forward on optimism, there's a risk of a plunge backwards....And for every 3 or 4 statements from the US side on the trade talks, Beijing....At the same time, there's a risk that trade news is overshadowing what&....There has been an undercurrent of stabilization in most of the world...On Friday, the US retail sales control group was up 0...3% to match estimates...Overall sales were also slightly stronger at +0...3% vs the +0...2% consensus...Broad economic concern has shifted to a focus on struggling global manufacturing...Friday's industrial production data in the US showed a 0...8% fall compared to -0...4% expected...It's a similar story nearly everywhere but while manufacturing....Unless that changes, there's no reason to believe this paradigm can'....Latest UK Polls....The latest figures from the UK election polls according to ICM conducted for....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR -58K vs -61K prior...GBP -28K vs -29K prior...JPY -35K vs -27K prior...CHF -15K vs -14K prior...CAD +42K vs +52K prior...AUD -41K vs -27K prior...NZD -41K vs -27K prior....The Australian and New Zealand dollar have shown some signs of life following....Watch the 100-day moving average in NZD/USD this week, currently about 35 pips....6440.
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Media: Ashraf Laidi on Eurozone Debt & Gold on AlArabiya on Dec 6, 2011
by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 7, 2011 3:11 -
Article: SPR the New Global QE?
by Ashraf Laidi | Jun 24, 2011 14:58
In order to understand the SPR release of 60 million barrels, we must go back....It was no surprise that Bernanke did not dare utter the words QE3 on Wednesday's....Yet, there was no need to refer to further easing when the FOMC already....Unlike during the end of QE1 (Feb-Mar 2010) when the US economy grew robustly....This creates inevitable continuation of US quantitative easing (reinvesting....Fed policy means US imports deflation from Asia; Asia/Latam imports inflation....ONLY SOLUTION is for IEA (ie G20) to combat the macoeconomic symptoms of weak....We consider the IEA decision to have been partially prompted by the notion....Note how that right after Bernankes conference, WTI rose by more than $2...00 to 95...70s as the market deemed further stimulus to be inevitable...CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE...As negative as they appear, both the US crude oil and S&P500 chart remain....The USD will need more than just bad news in the Eurozone to accumulate any....What was mainly seen as fiscal imbalance weighing on the USD structural....EURUSD will continue hovering between $1...40 and 1...45...Do not underestimate China's role in propping Europes debt in return for....Hence, notice....how European nations are no longer dictating Beijing over its currency....policy, leaving only the US and Canada in doing so...CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE...Click here for my CNBC-TV appearance on this topic earlier this morning...Click here to try our Premium service of daily trades & intermarket insights.
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Intraday Market Thought: PBOC Action to Further Divide the Fed
by Ashraf Laidi | Aug 11, 2015 11:01
The 1...9% devaluation in the peg of the Chinese yuan is a balancing act between....nbsp; In a nod to the IMF, China has altered the way it announces its daily....0%-- by using the previous day's close instead of an arbitrary level set....This is no surprise to those who read us here 2 days ago...nbsp;....The decision to set the daily anchor, or central rate based on the prior day'....Falling Exports, Reserves & Growth....In terms of its current account, China's slowing growth has manifested....The situation had especially deteriorated after the CNY rebounded in&....Implications for Fed Policy....Less than 24 hours after the US dollar sustained a notable sell-off following....The plunge in commodities- led by the 30% decline oil since May—is widely....Further devaluation from Beijing could be the coup de grace for commodities,....At a time when several FOMC members were considering a rate hike as early as....The decision also complicates the task of those Fed members, aiming for....Jackson Hole will be about inflation, not jobs....Considering the disinflationary US dollar and recessionary oil/mining....nbsp; Fed chair Yellen will not be present at this year's conference,....We continue to expect no rate hike this year...nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: China’s FX Reality
by Adam Button | Feb 7, 2016 23:53
January forex reserve data revealed on the weekend that China is burning....Yet the common theme remains that China wants to soften their currency...We look at the dilemma officials are facing and how it will end...In the Premium trades, Ashraf closed the USDJPY and GBPJPY shorts at 320 and 335....Many clients questioned his decision to short USDJPY 45 mins after the BoJ....quot;فيديو جديد - خاص للمشتركين العرب "التوصيات القائمة و المحتملة بعد....It's Chinese New Year Monday and markets there and in other parts of Asia....That may give markets an opportunity to stabilize as one of the factors driving....It's also a chance to try to make sense of China's strategy...Why not just allow market forces to weaken the yuan?....For Chinese officials, what's as important as the direction of the....At the moment, they see capital exiting China on jitters about the economy and....Beijing is obsessed with stability and the appearance of control...That's why they've put much effort into smoothing yuan and stock....China wants to have open markets, but only on its terms...Unfortunately, even the most well-developed, transparent markets are prone....China won't spend all its reserves to combat the inevitable loss to market....Naturally, Beijing wants to give up control on its terms but it's....The opacity of the Chinese economy will always make it vulnerable to capital....China's true dilemma is whether to accept it or change course back towards....The latter is more likely than most market participants believe...Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR -87K vs -127K prior...JPY +37K vs +50K prior...GBP -45K vs -47K prior...AUD -26K vs -33K prior...CAD -52K vs -67K prior...NZD -8K vs -5K prior....This is the first look at the data since the surprise BOJ decision...The yen long trade wasn't squeezed as much as it appeared, although the....Instead, it was euro shorts that rushed out of the way and that was before the....10.
