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Results: 641 to 650 of 1,000
Results: 641 to 650 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: What's after Markets' Obligatory Bounce
by Adam Button | Aug 8, 2019 14:51
The challenge is not to predict bottom picking in the markets, but how long and....We'll look into that a bit later...Fresh cycle lows in Treasury yields and a sharp drop in equities turned around....Markets bounced in the last 1 hour of NY traer and resumed into Thursday Asia....00 for the 1st time since 2008...Here's Ashraf's take on CNY detailing this somewhat confusing....Gold also hit a six-year high above $1500...داو جونز: بيع الإرتداد أو شراء الهبوط؟....فيديو للمشتركين....The market whimpered then roared Wednesday on a sharp turnaround in....Early in North American trade, US 10-year yields hit a cycle low of 1...59% and 30-year yields hit 2...21%, only a few basis points from an all-time low (that was established with Fed....That fear spilled into equity markets and the S&P 500 fell by as much as....In addition to the PBOC fixing, comments from Evans also helped sentiment, which....Also helping sentiment is a US report indicating that US-China trade talks are....A Chinese report cast some doubt on that but sentiment reversed and stocks and....The FX market moves played out on the same plane, but to a much smaller scale...USD/JPY fell 60 pips to 105...50 only to recoup the entire move...The Australian dollar was more impressive as it fell a full cent on the....One asset that didn't turn around was gold...It hit a six-year high of $1510 from an open of $1475 and held most of the gains....That strength in risk-positive and risk-negative environments is telling...Ashraf focused on the most likely path for gold and JPY in yesterday's....Markets will likely revert to watching the CNY fixing at the start of every..
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Intraday Market Thought: Get Ready for NFP, Powell
by Adam Button | Oct 4, 2019 12:27
A second soft ISM reading ended talk of a pause from the Fed and placed rate....Expect prolonged fluctuations today (fake breakouts & reversals) in the....NFP (more below) and hawish dissenter Rosengren are due at 8:30 Eastern (13:30....Below is the weekly English Premium Video clarifying the next positioning....The ISM non-manufacturing index fell to a three-year low just days after the....It was at 52...6 compared to 55...0 expected and much worse than low-estimate of 54...0...The initial market reaction was a continuation of the 'risk off'....Shortly afterwards, it morphed into a USD selloff and a rebound in equities...That was helped along by higher pricing for Fed cuts...The US 2-year fell to cycle lows at 1...366% and Fed fund futures pushed to price in an 85% chance of an Oct 30 and....Fed hopes and the typical buy-the-dips mentality quickly swung a 55-point low-....More broadly, the dollar stayed under pressure...Overall, it was a tougher day to put together a coherent narrative...There is a delicate balance in equities at economic turning points...There is always the hope that the Fed will save the day...At this point in 2008, US equities were hitting record highs on the belief that....At other times, that bet has been a good one but it will come down to how much....In Brexit news, the mood is souring as the EU and Ireland edged towards....For Johnson, however, it has given him some credibility and that could....If he can command a large majority, that would put the EU in a tougher spot down....Looking ahead, the employment component of the services ISM survey was an....It fell to 50...4 – the lowest since Feb 2014 -- from 53...1 last month...It has a mixed record on forecasting the jobs report and September is....The consensus for the 145K but the market has likely moved to something 20K..
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Intraday Market Thought: China Funds Thru Euros
by Adam Button | Nov 6, 2019 12:20
China borrowed in euros for the first time in 15 years on Tuesday as President....The euro lagged on the day while the Australian dollar led the way...Odds of an RBNZ rate cut next week rose after a small miss in jobs numbers...Speeches today from Fed officials include...Chicago Fed's Evans, New York Fed's Williams and Philadelphia Fed's....EIA oil inventories are later in the afternoon...Where is the next high for stock indices? If you're still short and partly....China sold euro-denominated bonds for the first time since 2004 in a quiet....The sale was only for four billion dollars of 7, 12 and 20-year bonds but....With that, the bonds priced about 20 basis points below China's initial....The move is the culmination of a handful of factors...For FX traders, the big one is that the euro is increasingly the preferred....Rates are as low as Japan but without the same levels of indebtedness and....It also signals the increasing cooperation of China and Europe...Macron and Xi met on Wednesday and the Chinese President touted multilateralism....Italy has embraced the belt-and-road initiative...Finally, it signals China's efforts to diversify its FX and economic....While it underscores the decoupling theme, it also highlights the battle for....With this demand and the near-certainty that eurozone rates will remain pinned....That will keep the downward pressure on the euro, but could also give it further....Early in Asia-Pacific trading, New Zealand Q3 unemployment rose to 4...2% compared with 4...1% expected...Average hourly earnings rose 0...6% compared to 1...0% y/y expected...That miss pushed the odds of an RBNZ rate cut next week to 60% from 54% and..
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Intraday Market Thought: Removing the Catalysts
by Ashraf Laidi | Nov 15, 2019 17:00
Rising equity prices remain the path of least resistance as US indices push to....The Fed continues to remove itself from the considerations of good/bad catalysts....Even the impeachment proceedings are far from being considered as material to....Indices push higher after each piece of good news on the US-China trade war....Intermarket moves reflect a broadening risk-on climate, as USD and JPY weakness....How can we extend in this fashion? The Premium video below highlights my....The chart breakouts in technology, semi-conductors and financials highlight that....nbsp; US 10-year yields remain on a gradually rising trend since Sep 3rd,....1...912% and 109...30 are the required closing levels for the 10-year and USDJPY to lead momentum....US retail sales matched expectations with a 0...3% rise in October, while industrial production fell 0...8%, posting its biggest drop in 10 years...Fed Chair Powell's testimony did everything to confirm markets'....The markets-data matrix has entered a confluence where a rate cut is not....But traders will soon require a firm confirmation from Chinese officials....Once that's done, the 2nd catalyst is finally removed from the list of....But I strongly expect that a full trade deal will never be realized between the....e...China will never yield completely to all of Trump's demands.
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Intraday Market Thought: Oil Slumps on Russia's Oil Stance
by Adam Button | Nov 20, 2019 11:37Oil posted its biggest percentage decline in nearly 2 months after reports....US crude dropped towards its 7-week trendline support, VIX had its first gap....The loonie is the biggest loser of the last 24 hours on oil's drump and....GBP drops as Labour's Corbyn had a strong showing in yesterday's debate....A new Premium trade was posted during Tuesday's London session...فيديو للمشتركين أدناه يفسر كل التفاصيل وراء هذا المؤشر و صفقة يوم الإثنين...Oil fell 3...3% on Tuesday to the worst levels since November 1...The news was that Russia probably won't agree to a production cut at the Dec 5....Some members have pushed for deeper cuts in order to get Brent back to $70 but....The news isn't really a surprise but it landed in an oil market that was reeling...Crude touched a seven-week high early on Monday but quickly reversed lower and....The weakness in oil boosted USD/CAD to the precipice of a 5-week high...A break of 1...3271 would clear the way to 1...3000 amnd the October highs near 1...3340...The rally was helped along by a speech from BOC senior deputy Wilkins noting....She also highlighted that the economy was in good shape but the comment on....Looking ahead, Canadian CPI is due at 1330 GMT...It will be a critical report for the BOC ahead of the December 4 meeting...It's forecast to show a 1...9% y/y reading and a 0...3% m/m rise...The BOC's three core measures are all expected to remain close to 2%....The BOC faces more inflation and wage growth than other developed-market....However a tick lower may further crack open the door to an insurance cut. -
Intraday Market Thought: Tonight's Crucial UK Poll
by Adam Button | Nov 27, 2019 17:33
GBP is once again the only gainer vs USD, while the yen is the weakest as....US economic data came in mostly better than expected in Q3 GDP, jobless claims....The latest Premium video updates on the latest forward indicator regarding....Onto the Big Poll at 17:00 Eastern (22:00 London/GMT)....Uk polling agency YouGov will release seat-by-seat details of its highly....The Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification is known for being the....The poll uses a sample of 50,000 instead of the 1,000 used by others, breaking....GBP bulls are looking for a Conservatives majority percentage margin....One potentially misleading factor is that of Brexit, which could supersede....US Data Bump....The latest US economic data reduce odds of the economy slipping towards a....Time will tell if they spent their ammunition too quickly...One area that's undoubtedly been aided by the central bank is housing and....An upward revision to September data put that month at the highest since 2007...On the flipside, the manufacturing sector continues to struggle with the....Consumer confidence was also a touch soft at 125...5 compared to 127...0...Even with those modest misses, the conversation about the economy has..
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Intraday Market Thought: Tories in Command, Turn to China
by Adam Button | Nov 28, 2019 12:51
The highly-anticipated MRP model from YouGov helped to boost cable above 1...2950 and further extended it to the day's top performer...The US dollar also had a strong day on upbeat economic data while the yen....German Nov CPI rose to 1...2% y/y from 0...9% --the highest since May...European indices and US futures moved lower in anticipation of potentially....Thursday is a holiday in the US...Oil began its downmove on supply data before indices pushed lower...nbsp;....The MRP model showed Conservatives with 43% of the vote compared to 32% from....The 11 point lead remains healthy but is above some other polls that have shown....Especially influential about this poll set is that it correctly predicted the....Digging deeper into the model, it showed a Conservative majority of 62 with 359....An early but vague leak suggested a strong Conservative majority and that....2950 from 1...2880 --the highest in 7 days...GBP's gains would have been stronger vs USD in cable if not for broad USD....The dollar was boosted by the durable goods orders report...It showed core orders up 1...2% compared to -0...2% expected; a sign that business investment may be perking up after years....USD/JPY tracked to 109...60 from 109...20 in the hours after the report...Importantly, that rally broke the November high of 109...47 to touch the best levels since May...There is an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern that's now formed on the....Ashraf tells me USDJPY has pushed 0...5% above its 200-DMA, the most since December of last year...In broader terms, risk trades also continue to improve...The S&P 500 hit another record and NZD/JPY climbed to the best levels since....The market continues to price in calm in the trade war and a pickup in global....That may be premature but that's the nature of markets...The rest of the weak will be liquidity-thinned with US traders shutting down....ECB watchers will furher mull the latest German CPI, further closing the door..
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Intraday Market Thought: Reality Check Pre Jobs
by Adam Button | Dec 6, 2019 12:37As we turn to the November jobs reports from the US and Canada (more below)....There are three (simplified) phases to an economic turn: Phase 1 is....Phase 3 is improvement...Which phase are we in? Below are charts on 2 of our existing Premium....A new Premium trade was issued yesterday evening...We're clearly Phase 2, but today's markets attempt to front-run everything,....The data isn't there yet...Aside from some Chinese fogures– usually unreliable – there isn't....Manufacturing remains especially weak and just today German factory orders....4% in October and down 5...5% year-over-year...Even in the US, this week's ADP and ISM data was all on the soft side...Most central banks have bought into the idea of a turn and now the looming....Even if data begins to tick higher on better consumer spending there needs to....The hope is that a US-China trade deal will spark some fresh investment but....A a phase one deal isn't going to remove the uncertainty, especially with....What's needed is more-aggressive stimulus from China to follow a phase....In the Chinese press Friday there was more talk of an MLF cut, which would....Better would be a package of rate cuts, easing lending restrictions and fiscal....Something along those lines from Europe would be helpful as well...But is it realistic?....That will be something to ponder in the weeks ahead...In the day ahead, the Canadian and US jobs reports are due...US non-farm payrolls are forecast at +183K but the risks are to the downside....Still, a miss will probably be brushed aside due to skews from the GM strike...The more-tradeable data could be from Canada where the consensus is +10K (as....We wrote recently about a wide divergence between the employment survey....There are more than 100K 'extra' jobs in the employment survey and the.. -
Intraday Market Thought: 400-pip Election & Unconfirmed Deals
by Adam Button | Dec 13, 2019 14:16
UK Conservatives won a resounding electoral majority to ensure a Brexit....Less than 20 hours after Trump lifted markets with his trademark tweet on....again (more below)....The pound soared by more than 4 cents to 1...3514--the highest in 19 months straight after exit polls showed Conservatives....US Nov retail sales disappointed with a 0...1% rise (control group) vs expectations of 0...3%....nbsp; Days like Thursday remind us why we love the FX market...The news and market moves were non-stop in a sea of opportunity...The DAX Premium trade was stopped out and a new GBP trade issued ahead of the....What's a Friday without a Trump Trade Tweet....US indices are off 0...8% after Trump disputed a WSJ article stating that he agreed to roll back....The details are still murky but we have yet to hear from China's state....It will undoubtedly ratchet down tensions and promises a period of....Like the UK vote, traders were also reluctant to price in a deal because of....The deal is good news for global growth in H12020 and underscores that the....There are many breakouts but a standout is AUD/USD...We highlighted the break of the major downtrend yesterday...The was followed by breaks of the 200-day moving average and the October high....A weekly close above those levels would be a further positive signal...The UK election was the crescendo...The market has been leaning towards a solid Conservative majority since the....So even though the result was 'expected', we had a massive market....Part of that also speaks to the strength of the Conservative majority...It looks to be at the extreme limit of what polls were indicating...UK Conservatives crushed expectations with 364 seat-victory, fuelling sterling&....Wit the rise above 1...35 the pound broke the March 2019 high...In the bigger picture it's only back to where it was on the night of the....In the days ahead real-money and structural shorts will be unwound and..
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Intraday Market Thought: Manufacturing and Negative Rate Blues
by Adam Button | Dec 20, 2019 12:57
The US dollar struggled on Thursday after a poor factory reading while....On Thursday, the Australian dollar led the way while the pound lagged as it has....US PCE data and Canadian retail sales are up next...Ashraf noticed peculiar developments in markets yesterday, as tweeted below...The weak Philly Fed on Thursday gives us another chance to highlight the risks....The Philly Fed was at +0...3 versus +8...0 expected....The miss kicked off a slump in the US dollar against the yen and re-emphasizes....In Sweden, the Riksbank move to raise its benchmark rate to zero from -0...25% is more-notable for the 'why' than the 'what'....Inflation is Sweden is under 2% and projected to stay this way and growth is....2% next year...Those aren't the conditions for hiking rates anywhere but the move wasn&....In raising rates the central bank warned if negative rates continued for too....ECB voices are growing louder to re-think negative rates...It was also notable that the currency reaction to the move was modest and that&....Looking ahead, today is the final fully-staffed trading day of the year on most....Flows should lighten substantially from here but not until a pair of key....The November US PCE report may disappoint on the spending side if the....The consensus is +0...4% but last week's retail report was +0...2% compared to +0...5% expected and many of the estimates haven't been updated since...We also get a look at Canadian consumers but note that this is data for October...With this week's slump in the pound, the loonie is now the year-to-date....With oil strong it's not likely to give up the title at this point but a..
