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Results: 701 to 710 of 1,000
Results: 701 to 710 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: Gold was the Easy Part
by Ashraf Laidi | Aug 4, 2022 19:29
It's time to revisit the weekly gold chart and its similarity with the....This time last year, I published several videos on why gold's decline....nbsp;The arguments were made here and here ....nbsp; But now that we've held the lows of March and Aug 2021, is the....Before getting to the intermarket technicals, let's briefly address....There are several scenarios ideal for gold bulls...Realistically, the most plausible set-up is for the Fed to retreat from (or....We're currently at the easy part-- when CPI and core PCE are pulling back....nbsp;....That was the Easy Part....Things will get tricky around October/November, when various inflation....These could entail rebounds in core PCE and declines or no change in CPI...Variations between m/m and y/y readings, or contradictions between consumer....Don't get me started with divergences between breakeven inflation....Imagine the loud cacophony of mixed rhetoric from a dozen FOMC officials....Such a period will revive volatility in indices, bonds and metals, but may not....Reading some Charts....Reading the above charts, we notice the clear contrast between the renewed....nbsp; Although breakeven inflation appears currently to fall off its peak....This sounds favourable for metals...On the short-term, a weekly close above 1805 (with the help of mixed-to-weak NFP)....Recapping the past two weeks, we began picking up gold for our Whatsapp....On Monday, we cautioned that corrective pullbacks would extend to 1751, before....Members get intraday updates in the form of text, charts and voice notes and....More here...nbsp;....We'll provide real-time coverage for our of NFP, UnempRate, AHE and its....nbsp; ..
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Intraday Market Thought: GBP Already Eyeing BoE Inflation Report
by Ashraf Laidi | May 7, 2014 15:46Currencies & bond yields are little changed after Fed Chairwoman Yellen'....As GBPUSD nears $1...70 for the first time in 5 years, we issue our latest GBP Premium trades with....Tomorrow's Bank of England announcement is of the first MPC meeting....0% formerly used as a forward guidance threshold for higher rates...No change is expected tomorrow but look out from any released statements...And let's not forget next week's employment report and the quarterly BoE....it Our Premium service had been issuing GBPUSD longs since late June...Full trading implications and 373-world explanation to the chart below is found.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Cable Clipped Again, AUD Sags
by Adam Button | Jul 20, 2016 0:13
UK CPI data was a touch higher than expected but the pound plunged again....The yen was the top performer while the Australian dollar lagged after the RBA....More Australian data is due later with the skilled vacancies report...The latest Premium video, discussing our FX & metals trades is found below...It also includes a preview for Wednesday's UK jobs report and Thursday's....Last week's JPY trades has now been filled and is in progress...The clearest sign of a bear market is when something can't rally on good....UK core CPI rose 1...4% compared to 1...3% y/y expected led to a momentary rise in the pound but it crashed down soon....Steady selling continue throughout the latter half of the day and the pound....31 at a one-week low...The IMF weighed in on the Brexit vote by cutting its 2016 global growth forecast....They lowered the estimate to 1...7% this year from 1...9% and for 2017 to 1...3% from 2...2%....Those numbers remain a touch higher than consensus views but it's all highly....What stands out is how sanguine the market is on 2017 given some of the....There may be a sense that Brexit won't happen or won't be that bad...That's a dangerous assumption...Looking ahead, the lone main data point on the calendar is Aussie skilled....The market is increasingly pricing in RBA and RBNZ moves in August and that....Skilled vacancies are a lower tier indicator but the market is growing more....Another sensitive topic is Donald Trump as the Republican primary continues...Betting markets give him a 30% of winning the Presidency...Financial markets are likely lower...If he is to make it a close race, it's imperative that the RNC avoid any....We will also be paying close attention to how hard he rails against trade and..
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Intraday Market Thought: The Lesson in the USD Trade
by Adam Button | Sep 20, 2016 0:00
A strong market is like a strong trader: The good days are great and the bad....The US dollar lagged to start the week but the damage was minimal in another....The Australian dollar was the top performer with the RBA Minutes due up....A few Premium trades will be closed ahead of the BoJ-Fed meetings and new....للمشتركين فقط...quot;كسر الكتف الأيمن قبيل المركزي الياباني و الاميركي"....On the other side of the coin is the pound...It posted a terrible day on Friday, falling 240 pips to 1...3000...It was poised for a rebound Monday and was up to 1...3090 in early US trading but the gains slowly eroded to just 1...3030...It's tough to imagine the dollar bid will evaporate no matter what the Fed....What's priced in is no move, but some hawkish talk in the statement and....Anything less, and we're still likely to see the usual aggressive dip-....In terms of economic data and news, Monday's trade was light...The NAHB housing market index was at 65 compared to 60 expected in a fresh sign....Looking ahead, the RBA Minutes may offer some clarity on the medium-term....The market is pricing a 10% chance of a cut in October and a 29% chance of lower....nbsp; This was the final meeting under the leadership of Glenn Stevens and now....With the transition, what's next is especially tricky to sort out...So far, there have been mixed messages, including some cryptic talk from deputy....Lowe is also speaking at Parliament on Thursday.
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Intraday Market Thought: EUR Cheers Hollandexit, More Cheers to Come?
by Adam Button | Dec 2, 2016 0:03
The final month of the year has arrived and over the past 16 years, that's....The Canadian dollar was the top performer while the US dollar lagged...Australian retail sales are up next...The Premium trades in oil and GBPUSD were stopped out...A new trade in a US index has been issued, joining 2 existing index....Markets cheering the exit of a world leader is a special kind of slap in the....But it was one that French President Hollande received on Thursday when he....The euro extended its rally by more than 30 pips to cap off a 70-pip gain and....The euro is coming off a brutal drop in November as the US dollar surged but one....Since the euro's inception, December has been easily the best month...It's gained an average of nearly 2%....Last year the euro bottomed on December 2 at 1...0563 then finished the month 3...26% higher...The triggers then were the ECB and Fed...With both on the calendar and the euro with support below, it's possible we....Here are some other December seasonal trends:....It's the second-worst month for cable...It's the best month for EUR/GBP longs...AUD/USD often struggles in December...Bonds sag in December...December is the second-best month for the S&P 500...In the short term, the market will be focused on the Australian dollar and the....The consensus is for a 0...3% rise following the 0...6% jump in September.
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Intraday Market Thought: 2016 Stats, Notes and Themes
by Adam Button | Jan 2, 2017 18:14
The Brexit vote was the predominant market mover in 2016 but it was a year....As we get ready for a new year, here is a look at the numbers that mattered in....Three major currencies outperformed the US dollar in 2016: The New Zealand....The new Premium members video has 5 trading ideas...One of our existing AUD trade is +210 pips in the green...Gaining 2...96% in 2016, the Canadian dollar was the top performer of the year, narrowly....The loonie didn't get much attention in 2016 but after a dismal start to the....Still, it was the first CAD gains against USD since 2012 when it began....Broadening the FX universe, BRL, RUB and ZAR were the big winners...The pound was easily the worst performer, falling 16...26% against the US dollar in its worst year since 2008...It was distantly followed by the euro at -3...18%....The S&P 500 gained 9...54% -- all of it coming in the final weeks of the year after the election....Donald Trump's inauguration day is Jan 20 and the rip in markets raises the....In the bigger picture, the S&P 500 has been in an 8-year bull market, which....The cumulative gain since the 2009 bottom is now 235%....Adjusted for currency moves, the S&P 500 was only the third best performing....It was bested by Canada's TSX (+21...34%) and Brazil's bovespa (+68...92%....The performance of metals didn't get the attention they deserved but that&....Since July, gold and silver both lagged but still managed to put up respective 8%....Given the strength of the dollar, that's an extra-impressive feat...Three other stories to watch in 2017....The big turn in bonds...A +30 year bull market in bonds is suddenly in jeopardy but it declines won&....Chinese yuan...Donald Trump is headed for a showdown with Beijing...The yuan fell 6...5% in 2016 and whether it's attacking FX policy or trade, the US and....OPEC...WTI finished the year up 46% and close to the best levels of the year...OPEC is the big reason for the rally and starting Jan 1 the quotas are in place...How long until the cracks appear?....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: Dollar Horse Left Out
by Adam Button | Jan 25, 2017 23:46
The three market horsemen of the Trump election win were rising stocks, rising....The pound was the top performer Wednesday while the Australian dollar....New Zealand is in focus with CPI out and Wheeler to speak; Australia is closed....GBPJPY was once again stopped out, leaving 5 Premium trades in....We are carefully watching the latest 2 days in gold and silver before a new....The market is gaining confidence in Donald Trump's agenda but it isn'....The S&P 500 hit a record high for a second consecutive day in an 18 point....The Dow also finally broke 20,000...In the bond market, the 10-year yield rose 5 bps to 2...51% after a weak 5-year auction...That's the sort of recipe that would normally give the US dollar a boost but....USD/JPY fell a half-cent on the day, while the pound and loonie each gained....Part of the reason is that US yields haven't risen in a vacuum...Global yields are moving higher with most benchmark yields near the highest....Markets suddenly believe that a new, higher combination of inflation and....That's mostly based on hope and expectations of government spending....What's curious is that the US is undoubtedly on the front end of that....The Fed is already in a hiking cycle and fiscal spending in some form is coming...So the dollar should be climbing...The reason the dollar might be struggling ties back to yesterday's....Parts of the market are warming up to Trump but the past two days of S&P....There is a disbelief in Trump, if not a disgust/exhaustion from international....In separate comments on immigration Wednesday he pledged to build a wall and....At the end of the day, likeability is still a factor...What we don't want to miss is the short-term upside...Protectionism and wasteful spending are long-term drags but in the short term....That's a dollar positive...So while the market is in denial in the short-term, higher rates, stocks and....At the same time, we remain watchful of data, especially inflation...New Zealand released Q4 numbers early in Asia and the showed a 0...4% q/q price rise compared to 0...3% expected.
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Intraday Market Thought: Import Tax Confusion
by Adam Button | Jan 26, 2017 23:27
The surprise of the first working week of Trump's administration was how....The dollar played some catch up on the day to lead the way while the yen lagged...Japanese CPI is due up next...The Dow short was stopped out and 4 trades remain in progress (3 in FX and 1....The bar for Trump's team was low coming into the week...The spat over inauguration crowd sizes was a poor start but after meetings with....We wrote earlier in the week that the early part of his Presidency will be all....The early returns were good but it started to unravel on Thursday as the....It didn;t add up...With more than $300 billion in annual imports from Mexico a tariff would....It was compounded by the White House saying Trump favored a 20% import tax on....Hours later, Republicans walked back the suggestion, saying it was one of just a....The process of floating ideas then adjusting, backtracking or changing them....Ultimately, the market has shown it will give Trump plenty of rope but fumbles....Otherwise US trading wasn't overly volatile...New home sales and initial jobless claims were weak but the Markit services....The latter probably adds 0...2 pp to Friday's advance US GDP reading and some upside risk into Friday....Before that comes the December Japanese CPI reading...The 0...2% y/y rise expected will be slower than 0...5% in November and will serve as a reminder that the BOJ remains far from..
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Intraday Market Thought: USD Reverses, AUD Jobs Next
by Adam Button | Feb 15, 2017 22:40
Signs that better post-election confidence is beginning to translate....The New Zealand dollar was the top performer while the pound lagged...The Australian jobs report is due up next...A new metals trade has been added to the Premium Insights, supported by three....The general arc of an improving economy is that sentiment surveys improve first...That's followed by hard data but not always...Sometimes economic confidence fades and the expected growth pickup never....The US dollar rallied along with sentiment after the election but it....Hand-in-hand with that was uncertainty about what the new administration would....In the past week, Trump's 'phenomenal' tax plan offered a....Today's January retail sales report was the best evidence yet...Ex-autos and gas rose 0...7% compared to a flat reading expected...The December report was also revised higher...Along with that report, CPI beat estimates and the Empire Fed was at 18...7 compared to 7...0 expected...Initially, the US dollar surged as the probability of a March Fed climbed above....But there are signs the market has unanswered questions...A big one is wages as January year-over-year real wages were flat compared to a....8% rise in December...That's the kind of statistic that offers the Fed plenty of opportunity for....In addition, higher CPI is largely an artifact from the oil price recovery and....Finally, not all the data was good with January industrial production down 0...3% compared to a flat reading expected...The US dollar began to reverse and went on to fall 50-80 pips from its peak...Overall, the data is still trending in the right direction but the market still....For now, this might just be a blip but it demonstrates how conflicted the....Meanwhile, it's full steam ahead for stocks as the S&P 500 hit a record....One chart that appears to be breaking out is AUD/USD as the bulls finally took....7700...But it could be a short-lived victory if today's jobs report struggles...The consensus estimate is for 10K new jobs with unemployment flat at 5...8%....If the numbers are strong, however, expect a break of the Nov 8 high of 0...7778 in what would be a 10-month high...The data is due at 0030 GMT.
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Intraday Market Thought: Indecision Time
by Adam Button | Feb 19, 2017 23:10
What breaks the deadlock? The past week demonstrated that strong economic data....The yen was the top performer on the week while the pound lagged but the....1 of the 3 USD Premium trades was closed at a profit, leaving 2 USD trades in....So what are we waiting for? Is it clarity on Trump's currency policy?....Yellen was more hawkish but the dollar shrugged...So we're left to continue focusing on politics but we're also keeping....An alternative view is inflation...If we take the view that all governments are poised to spend more in order to....But it might be uneven...Conceivably, countries closing borders may lose out on trade and experience....But overall that strikes as an uncertain and slow-moving factor...Emerging markets are also in the crosshairs...One fact of globalization that's in little dispute is that it has boosted....A retrenchment in trade is inherently negative and it creates an endless....Taking a wider view, everyone is struggling with these questions but it&....As the search continues, we will keep a close watch on technicals...In terms of economic data, the week begins with New Zealand PPI and Japanese....Note that it's a holiday in North America so trading may remain....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Forex speculative futures positioning...denotes net long; - denotes net short....EUR -47K vs -45K prior...GBP -66K vs -64K prior...JPY -51K vs -55K prior...CHF -11K vs -14K prior...CAD +19K vs +8K prior...AUD +24K vs +17K prior...NZD +3K vs +1K prior....The commodity currencies extended the slow burn of the past month...The Australian and Canadian dollars continue to flirt with breakouts.
