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Results: 701 to 710 of 1,000
Results: 701 to 710 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: Selling Facts & DXY Positioning
by Adam Button | Jan 18, 2021 18:16It's a holiday in the US and metals are recovering after opening sharply....A 'sell the fact' mood hit markets last week after Biden's big stimulus and....The pound was the top performer last week while the kiwi lagged...CFTC positioning data shows that USD shorts aren't losing their nerve despite....We turn to Yellen's Senate Hearings tomorrow...Below is the net short-positioning of DXY...nbsp;....The US is on holiday Monday so that may slow the start to the trading week...The main event this week is Biden's inauguration but barring something....The holiday gives us a chance to digest the huge stimulus proposal and the....So for the political reaction has been relatively positive but with Trump's....What did emerge on Friday was a poor retail sales report, down 1...4% in December compared to a flat reading expected...Worse yet, the prior was revised lower to -1...4% from -1...1%....There was an even larger miss and negative revision in the key 'control....Two soft months from the US consumer at the most-critical time of the year....nbsp; ....Early in the week, we will continue to evaluate the mood in the market...Treasury yields have retraced but the dollar has remained strong but that may....This week should offer a clearer picture on the underlying trends...Aside from comments from Biden, Treasury Secretary-nominee Yellen will appear in....She will testify that the US won't seek a weaker dollar, leaving it to the....CFTC Commitments of Traders...Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +156K vs +143K prior...GBP +13K vs +4K prior...JPY +50K vs +50K prior...CHF +12K vs +9K prior...CAD +12K vs +14K prior...AUD +5K vs -4K prior...NZD +15K vs +12K prior...US dollar shorts are edged higher this week with AUD flipping back to a net.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Fed, BoE Step Back, Yields Push up
by Adam Button | Mar 18, 2021 18:01
Both of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England vowed to keep liquidity....The FOMC served up a surprise with the majority of the dots flat through 2023...Both USD and GBP fell sharply after their respective central banks'....Yet, it took little time for US 10 yr yields to regain 1...70% and hit a fresh 14-month high of 1...75%....nbsp; Below are the key support/resistance levels suggested for fading....nbsp;....The market and the FOMC are on different pages...The market is pricing in an 80% chance of a hike before the end of 2022 and the....Powell tried to explain that the new reaction function for the Fed is to wait....He also repeatedly emphasized that they view the expected reopening rise in....The dollar sank across the board; 40 pips initially and then it continued....USD/CAD fell to a fresh 3-year low in the seventh day of selling...The bond market struggled and long-dated yields initially rose on inflation....Naturally, stocks cheered the pledge for lower rates...In the bigger picture, Powell and the FOMC continue to set them up for a clash....He highlighted as much by saying that they won't achieve credibility on....So ultimately this push-and-pull between the Fed and markets will continue until....It's a poker game with market participants caught in between...For now, expect the dollar to remain under pressure on the dovish Fed and for....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: The Dam Cracks, ECB Up Next
by Adam Button | Apr 22, 2021 12:15
Euro at the highs ahead of the ECB decision, with speculation of a possible....The Bank of Canada's decision to taper and hint at an earlier rate hike....The surprise move was a big boost to the Canadian dollar--biggest percentage....The ECB is up next...Announcement at 12:45 pm London, followed by the press conference 45 mins....Traders should expect lack of unanimity regarding the decision, during and after....nbsp;....As we warned here, the Bank of Canada dialed back QE to $3B/week from $4B/week....The market was not expecting that and what was a true surprise is that BOC....There was nothing like a dovish taper...Instead, the BOC boosted its Canadian GDP forecast to 6...5% this year from 4...0% and increased 2022 as well, while also raising the global growth view...At one point, USD/CAD had fallen 200 pips from pre-announcement levels...The market got caught leaning the wrong and the pair went from a one-month high....There was a modest bounce late to put the pair back at 1...25000 but the spot to watch now is the 1...2470-60 support zone for further follow through...The positive risk tone the emerged Wednesday will help but the loonie might....In the bigger picture, the turn in central banking has arrived...The ECB decision is up next and that might include a hint (or commitment) to....Eurozone data has far outpaced estimates over the past two months as the economy....In the ECB's case though it will be seen as more of a technical move or....The market will also be watching the Fed, RBA, and BoE to see who follows Canada...While this is a crack in the dam, it will break when one or two of those....When that happens, volatility in FX will dramatically increase.
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Intraday Market Thought: Eye on Motionless July & Real Yields
by Adam Button | Jun 30, 2021 12:00
Half the year is done with the Canadian dollar at the top of the leaderboard and....Some of that unwound on Tuesday despite a positive risk backdrop in a hint that....We take a closer look at July seasonal patterns...The US June ADP survey is up next, exp 600K from prev 978K, more on this below...15 mins later, Canada's April GDP follows...The chart below shows gold struggles to hold above the crucial support of 1760/3,....nbsp;....Comments from Fed governor Waller yesterday stating his preference for....nbsp;....We got more evidence of a strong recovery building as we ramp up for a....The June US consumer confidence report from the Conference Board was at 127...3 compared to 119...1 expected with the 'present situation' component jumping...Deeper down in the report, the 'jobs plentiful' metric also rose to the....The Fed's Barkin pointed to Aug and Sept as months when he expects to see....For July, the risk backdrop continues to improve with the S&P 500 closing....In the month ahead, the seasonals continue to be positive...July is the fifth best month on average over the past 20 years but is second....More broadly, there are much fewer seasonal signals in July...In fact, the average move in the Dollar Index in the past 20 years is precisely....There is some fractional strength in the commodity currencies but not as much as....The day ahead on the economic calendar is a busy one...The ADP jobs report is up at 1215 GMT/13:15 London/16:15 Dubai but note that its....Canadian GDP for April will be released at the same time but CAD risks may be....Comments from Fed governor Waller yesterday stating his preference for....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: A Receptive Audience for now
by Adam Button | Nov 9, 2021 12:51
A measure of the extent of market uncertainty about inflation is revealed....A heavy dose of Fedspeak on Monday delivered a consistent message about....With PPI coming up next and CPI on Wednesday, the debate is just getting....Bond bulls are also cheering the possibility that the dovish Lail....Not that Powell is hawkish, but Brainard is as rates friendly as central banner....And most importantly, real yields are hitting lows everywhere, as inflation....The WhatsApp Broadcast Group were informed to restart gold longs near....nbsp; Ashraf began highlighiting the importance of real yields for gold....Markets turned last week after Powell and other top global central bankers....Many market participants disagree but middling levels of conviction are....The reason that traders have been saying 'don't fight the Fed' for....The stakes in the inflation debate are enormous and it will ultimately be the....With that in mind, PPI and CPI in the next two days loom large...PPI can at times offer clues to the PPI report so we'll be watching closely....Other signals come from markets, where yields have moved back into a range....A potential is also in play above the series of summer tops stretching to..
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Intraday Market Thought: The Longest 30 Minutes
by Ashraf Laidi | Mar 16, 2022 16:39
Many of you remember those historical analysis showing how the US dollar....Depending on which “USD Index” you're using, some analysis....Here is a not-so recent analysis...While there is a 13% chance of a 50-bp rate hike (surprised it's this low)....What about the number/magnitude of Fed hikes between now and July? Or, balance....Currently, markets are pricing five 25-bp rate hikes for the year, with over 50%....We could expect a clear hawkish adjustment to these expectations in the....But there is always the press conference...Any dovish market interpretations will likely emerge from Powell stating his....This latter option should get a mention in the Q&A...Like I always said, market defining developments have usually emerged 10-15....This could entail a hawkish counterbalance to the mere 25-bp hike in....All of the above should make the 30 minutes between the release of the Fed....But these swings could pale in comparison to the habitual clinching....nbsp;....And if you think that by Thursday you got the Fed and US dollar figured out,....Not only we should hear more news about a possible ceasefire/agreement between....nbsp;....The combination of these forces with the broadening reality that any pullback....We've already told our WhatsApp Broadcast Group members, which pairs are....nbsp; ....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: Gold was the Easy Part
by Ashraf Laidi | Aug 4, 2022 19:29
It's time to revisit the weekly gold chart and its similarity with the....This time last year, I published several videos on why gold's decline....nbsp;The arguments were made here and here ....nbsp; But now that we've held the lows of March and Aug 2021, is the....Before getting to the intermarket technicals, let's briefly address....There are several scenarios ideal for gold bulls...Realistically, the most plausible set-up is for the Fed to retreat from (or....We're currently at the easy part-- when CPI and core PCE are pulling back....nbsp;....That was the Easy Part....Things will get tricky around October/November, when various inflation....These could entail rebounds in core PCE and declines or no change in CPI...Variations between m/m and y/y readings, or contradictions between consumer....Don't get me started with divergences between breakeven inflation....Imagine the loud cacophony of mixed rhetoric from a dozen FOMC officials....Such a period will revive volatility in indices, bonds and metals, but may not....Reading some Charts....Reading the above charts, we notice the clear contrast between the renewed....nbsp; Although breakeven inflation appears currently to fall off its peak....This sounds favourable for metals...On the short-term, a weekly close above 1805 (with the help of mixed-to-weak NFP)....Recapping the past two weeks, we began picking up gold for our Whatsapp....On Monday, we cautioned that corrective pullbacks would extend to 1751, before....Members get intraday updates in the form of text, charts and voice notes and....More here...nbsp;....We'll provide real-time coverage for our of NFP, UnempRate, AHE and its....nbsp; ..
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Intraday Market Thought: GBP Already Eyeing BoE Inflation Report
by Ashraf Laidi | May 7, 2014 15:46Currencies & bond yields are little changed after Fed Chairwoman Yellen'....As GBPUSD nears $1...70 for the first time in 5 years, we issue our latest GBP Premium trades with....Tomorrow's Bank of England announcement is of the first MPC meeting....0% formerly used as a forward guidance threshold for higher rates...No change is expected tomorrow but look out from any released statements...And let's not forget next week's employment report and the quarterly BoE....it Our Premium service had been issuing GBPUSD longs since late June...Full trading implications and 373-world explanation to the chart below is found.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Cable Clipped Again, AUD Sags
by Adam Button | Jul 20, 2016 0:13
UK CPI data was a touch higher than expected but the pound plunged again....The yen was the top performer while the Australian dollar lagged after the RBA....More Australian data is due later with the skilled vacancies report...The latest Premium video, discussing our FX & metals trades is found below...It also includes a preview for Wednesday's UK jobs report and Thursday's....Last week's JPY trades has now been filled and is in progress...The clearest sign of a bear market is when something can't rally on good....UK core CPI rose 1...4% compared to 1...3% y/y expected led to a momentary rise in the pound but it crashed down soon....Steady selling continue throughout the latter half of the day and the pound....31 at a one-week low...The IMF weighed in on the Brexit vote by cutting its 2016 global growth forecast....They lowered the estimate to 1...7% this year from 1...9% and for 2017 to 1...3% from 2...2%....Those numbers remain a touch higher than consensus views but it's all highly....What stands out is how sanguine the market is on 2017 given some of the....There may be a sense that Brexit won't happen or won't be that bad...That's a dangerous assumption...Looking ahead, the lone main data point on the calendar is Aussie skilled....The market is increasingly pricing in RBA and RBNZ moves in August and that....Skilled vacancies are a lower tier indicator but the market is growing more....Another sensitive topic is Donald Trump as the Republican primary continues...Betting markets give him a 30% of winning the Presidency...Financial markets are likely lower...If he is to make it a close race, it's imperative that the RNC avoid any....We will also be paying close attention to how hard he rails against trade and..
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Intraday Market Thought: The Lesson in the USD Trade
by Adam Button | Sep 20, 2016 0:00
A strong market is like a strong trader: The good days are great and the bad....The US dollar lagged to start the week but the damage was minimal in another....The Australian dollar was the top performer with the RBA Minutes due up....A few Premium trades will be closed ahead of the BoJ-Fed meetings and new....للمشتركين فقط...quot;كسر الكتف الأيمن قبيل المركزي الياباني و الاميركي"....On the other side of the coin is the pound...It posted a terrible day on Friday, falling 240 pips to 1...3000...It was poised for a rebound Monday and was up to 1...3090 in early US trading but the gains slowly eroded to just 1...3030...It's tough to imagine the dollar bid will evaporate no matter what the Fed....What's priced in is no move, but some hawkish talk in the statement and....Anything less, and we're still likely to see the usual aggressive dip-....In terms of economic data and news, Monday's trade was light...The NAHB housing market index was at 65 compared to 60 expected in a fresh sign....Looking ahead, the RBA Minutes may offer some clarity on the medium-term....The market is pricing a 10% chance of a cut in October and a 29% chance of lower....nbsp; This was the final meeting under the leadership of Glenn Stevens and now....With the transition, what's next is especially tricky to sort out...So far, there have been mixed messages, including some cryptic talk from deputy....Lowe is also speaking at Parliament on Thursday.
