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Results: 701 to 710 of 1,000
Results: 701 to 710 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: Eye on Motionless July & Real Yields
by Adam Button | Jun 30, 2021 12:00
Half the year is done with the Canadian dollar at the top of the leaderboard and....Some of that unwound on Tuesday despite a positive risk backdrop in a hint that....We take a closer look at July seasonal patterns...The US June ADP survey is up next, exp 600K from prev 978K, more on this below...15 mins later, Canada's April GDP follows...The chart below shows gold struggles to hold above the crucial support of 1760/3,....nbsp;....Comments from Fed governor Waller yesterday stating his preference for....nbsp;....We got more evidence of a strong recovery building as we ramp up for a....The June US consumer confidence report from the Conference Board was at 127...3 compared to 119...1 expected with the 'present situation' component jumping...Deeper down in the report, the 'jobs plentiful' metric also rose to the....The Fed's Barkin pointed to Aug and Sept as months when he expects to see....For July, the risk backdrop continues to improve with the S&P 500 closing....In the month ahead, the seasonals continue to be positive...July is the fifth best month on average over the past 20 years but is second....More broadly, there are much fewer seasonal signals in July...In fact, the average move in the Dollar Index in the past 20 years is precisely....There is some fractional strength in the commodity currencies but not as much as....The day ahead on the economic calendar is a busy one...The ADP jobs report is up at 1215 GMT/13:15 London/16:15 Dubai but note that its....Canadian GDP for April will be released at the same time but CAD risks may be....Comments from Fed governor Waller yesterday stating his preference for....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: A Receptive Audience for now
by Adam Button | Nov 9, 2021 12:51
A measure of the extent of market uncertainty about inflation is revealed....A heavy dose of Fedspeak on Monday delivered a consistent message about....With PPI coming up next and CPI on Wednesday, the debate is just getting....Bond bulls are also cheering the possibility that the dovish Lail....Not that Powell is hawkish, but Brainard is as rates friendly as central banner....And most importantly, real yields are hitting lows everywhere, as inflation....The WhatsApp Broadcast Group were informed to restart gold longs near....nbsp; Ashraf began highlighiting the importance of real yields for gold....Markets turned last week after Powell and other top global central bankers....Many market participants disagree but middling levels of conviction are....The reason that traders have been saying 'don't fight the Fed' for....The stakes in the inflation debate are enormous and it will ultimately be the....With that in mind, PPI and CPI in the next two days loom large...PPI can at times offer clues to the PPI report so we'll be watching closely....Other signals come from markets, where yields have moved back into a range....A potential is also in play above the series of summer tops stretching to..
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Intraday Market Thought: The Longest 30 Minutes
by Ashraf Laidi | Mar 16, 2022 16:39
Many of you remember those historical analysis showing how the US dollar....Depending on which “USD Index” you're using, some analysis....Here is a not-so recent analysis...While there is a 13% chance of a 50-bp rate hike (surprised it's this low)....What about the number/magnitude of Fed hikes between now and July? Or, balance....Currently, markets are pricing five 25-bp rate hikes for the year, with over 50%....We could expect a clear hawkish adjustment to these expectations in the....But there is always the press conference...Any dovish market interpretations will likely emerge from Powell stating his....This latter option should get a mention in the Q&A...Like I always said, market defining developments have usually emerged 10-15....This could entail a hawkish counterbalance to the mere 25-bp hike in....All of the above should make the 30 minutes between the release of the Fed....But these swings could pale in comparison to the habitual clinching....nbsp;....And if you think that by Thursday you got the Fed and US dollar figured out,....Not only we should hear more news about a possible ceasefire/agreement between....nbsp;....The combination of these forces with the broadening reality that any pullback....We've already told our WhatsApp Broadcast Group members, which pairs are....nbsp; ....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: Gold was the Easy Part
by Ashraf Laidi | Aug 4, 2022 19:29
It's time to revisit the weekly gold chart and its similarity with the....This time last year, I published several videos on why gold's decline....nbsp;The arguments were made here and here ....nbsp; But now that we've held the lows of March and Aug 2021, is the....Before getting to the intermarket technicals, let's briefly address....There are several scenarios ideal for gold bulls...Realistically, the most plausible set-up is for the Fed to retreat from (or....We're currently at the easy part-- when CPI and core PCE are pulling back....nbsp;....That was the Easy Part....Things will get tricky around October/November, when various inflation....These could entail rebounds in core PCE and declines or no change in CPI...Variations between m/m and y/y readings, or contradictions between consumer....Don't get me started with divergences between breakeven inflation....Imagine the loud cacophony of mixed rhetoric from a dozen FOMC officials....Such a period will revive volatility in indices, bonds and metals, but may not....Reading some Charts....Reading the above charts, we notice the clear contrast between the renewed....nbsp; Although breakeven inflation appears currently to fall off its peak....This sounds favourable for metals...On the short-term, a weekly close above 1805 (with the help of mixed-to-weak NFP)....Recapping the past two weeks, we began picking up gold for our Whatsapp....On Monday, we cautioned that corrective pullbacks would extend to 1751, before....Members get intraday updates in the form of text, charts and voice notes and....More here...nbsp;....We'll provide real-time coverage for our of NFP, UnempRate, AHE and its....nbsp; ..
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Intraday Market Thought: GBP Already Eyeing BoE Inflation Report
by Ashraf Laidi | May 7, 2014 15:46Currencies & bond yields are little changed after Fed Chairwoman Yellen'....As GBPUSD nears $1...70 for the first time in 5 years, we issue our latest GBP Premium trades with....Tomorrow's Bank of England announcement is of the first MPC meeting....0% formerly used as a forward guidance threshold for higher rates...No change is expected tomorrow but look out from any released statements...And let's not forget next week's employment report and the quarterly BoE....it Our Premium service had been issuing GBPUSD longs since late June...Full trading implications and 373-world explanation to the chart below is found.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Cable Clipped Again, AUD Sags
by Adam Button | Jul 20, 2016 0:13
UK CPI data was a touch higher than expected but the pound plunged again....The yen was the top performer while the Australian dollar lagged after the RBA....More Australian data is due later with the skilled vacancies report...The latest Premium video, discussing our FX & metals trades is found below...It also includes a preview for Wednesday's UK jobs report and Thursday's....Last week's JPY trades has now been filled and is in progress...The clearest sign of a bear market is when something can't rally on good....UK core CPI rose 1...4% compared to 1...3% y/y expected led to a momentary rise in the pound but it crashed down soon....Steady selling continue throughout the latter half of the day and the pound....31 at a one-week low...The IMF weighed in on the Brexit vote by cutting its 2016 global growth forecast....They lowered the estimate to 1...7% this year from 1...9% and for 2017 to 1...3% from 2...2%....Those numbers remain a touch higher than consensus views but it's all highly....What stands out is how sanguine the market is on 2017 given some of the....There may be a sense that Brexit won't happen or won't be that bad...That's a dangerous assumption...Looking ahead, the lone main data point on the calendar is Aussie skilled....The market is increasingly pricing in RBA and RBNZ moves in August and that....Skilled vacancies are a lower tier indicator but the market is growing more....Another sensitive topic is Donald Trump as the Republican primary continues...Betting markets give him a 30% of winning the Presidency...Financial markets are likely lower...If he is to make it a close race, it's imperative that the RNC avoid any....We will also be paying close attention to how hard he rails against trade and..
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Intraday Market Thought: The Lesson in the USD Trade
by Adam Button | Sep 20, 2016 0:00
A strong market is like a strong trader: The good days are great and the bad....The US dollar lagged to start the week but the damage was minimal in another....The Australian dollar was the top performer with the RBA Minutes due up....A few Premium trades will be closed ahead of the BoJ-Fed meetings and new....للمشتركين فقط...quot;كسر الكتف الأيمن قبيل المركزي الياباني و الاميركي"....On the other side of the coin is the pound...It posted a terrible day on Friday, falling 240 pips to 1...3000...It was poised for a rebound Monday and was up to 1...3090 in early US trading but the gains slowly eroded to just 1...3030...It's tough to imagine the dollar bid will evaporate no matter what the Fed....What's priced in is no move, but some hawkish talk in the statement and....Anything less, and we're still likely to see the usual aggressive dip-....In terms of economic data and news, Monday's trade was light...The NAHB housing market index was at 65 compared to 60 expected in a fresh sign....Looking ahead, the RBA Minutes may offer some clarity on the medium-term....The market is pricing a 10% chance of a cut in October and a 29% chance of lower....nbsp; This was the final meeting under the leadership of Glenn Stevens and now....With the transition, what's next is especially tricky to sort out...So far, there have been mixed messages, including some cryptic talk from deputy....Lowe is also speaking at Parliament on Thursday.
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Intraday Market Thought: EUR Cheers Hollandexit, More Cheers to Come?
by Adam Button | Dec 2, 2016 0:03
The final month of the year has arrived and over the past 16 years, that's....The Canadian dollar was the top performer while the US dollar lagged...Australian retail sales are up next...The Premium trades in oil and GBPUSD were stopped out...A new trade in a US index has been issued, joining 2 existing index....Markets cheering the exit of a world leader is a special kind of slap in the....But it was one that French President Hollande received on Thursday when he....The euro extended its rally by more than 30 pips to cap off a 70-pip gain and....The euro is coming off a brutal drop in November as the US dollar surged but one....Since the euro's inception, December has been easily the best month...It's gained an average of nearly 2%....Last year the euro bottomed on December 2 at 1...0563 then finished the month 3...26% higher...The triggers then were the ECB and Fed...With both on the calendar and the euro with support below, it's possible we....Here are some other December seasonal trends:....It's the second-worst month for cable...It's the best month for EUR/GBP longs...AUD/USD often struggles in December...Bonds sag in December...December is the second-best month for the S&P 500...In the short term, the market will be focused on the Australian dollar and the....The consensus is for a 0...3% rise following the 0...6% jump in September.
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Intraday Market Thought: 2016 Stats, Notes and Themes
by Adam Button | Jan 2, 2017 18:14
The Brexit vote was the predominant market mover in 2016 but it was a year....As we get ready for a new year, here is a look at the numbers that mattered in....Three major currencies outperformed the US dollar in 2016: The New Zealand....The new Premium members video has 5 trading ideas...One of our existing AUD trade is +210 pips in the green...Gaining 2...96% in 2016, the Canadian dollar was the top performer of the year, narrowly....The loonie didn't get much attention in 2016 but after a dismal start to the....Still, it was the first CAD gains against USD since 2012 when it began....Broadening the FX universe, BRL, RUB and ZAR were the big winners...The pound was easily the worst performer, falling 16...26% against the US dollar in its worst year since 2008...It was distantly followed by the euro at -3...18%....The S&P 500 gained 9...54% -- all of it coming in the final weeks of the year after the election....Donald Trump's inauguration day is Jan 20 and the rip in markets raises the....In the bigger picture, the S&P 500 has been in an 8-year bull market, which....The cumulative gain since the 2009 bottom is now 235%....Adjusted for currency moves, the S&P 500 was only the third best performing....It was bested by Canada's TSX (+21...34%) and Brazil's bovespa (+68...92%....The performance of metals didn't get the attention they deserved but that&....Since July, gold and silver both lagged but still managed to put up respective 8%....Given the strength of the dollar, that's an extra-impressive feat...Three other stories to watch in 2017....The big turn in bonds...A +30 year bull market in bonds is suddenly in jeopardy but it declines won&....Chinese yuan...Donald Trump is headed for a showdown with Beijing...The yuan fell 6...5% in 2016 and whether it's attacking FX policy or trade, the US and....OPEC...WTI finished the year up 46% and close to the best levels of the year...OPEC is the big reason for the rally and starting Jan 1 the quotas are in place...How long until the cracks appear?....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: Dollar Horse Left Out
by Adam Button | Jan 25, 2017 23:46
The three market horsemen of the Trump election win were rising stocks, rising....The pound was the top performer Wednesday while the Australian dollar....New Zealand is in focus with CPI out and Wheeler to speak; Australia is closed....GBPJPY was once again stopped out, leaving 5 Premium trades in....We are carefully watching the latest 2 days in gold and silver before a new....The market is gaining confidence in Donald Trump's agenda but it isn'....The S&P 500 hit a record high for a second consecutive day in an 18 point....The Dow also finally broke 20,000...In the bond market, the 10-year yield rose 5 bps to 2...51% after a weak 5-year auction...That's the sort of recipe that would normally give the US dollar a boost but....USD/JPY fell a half-cent on the day, while the pound and loonie each gained....Part of the reason is that US yields haven't risen in a vacuum...Global yields are moving higher with most benchmark yields near the highest....Markets suddenly believe that a new, higher combination of inflation and....That's mostly based on hope and expectations of government spending....What's curious is that the US is undoubtedly on the front end of that....The Fed is already in a hiking cycle and fiscal spending in some form is coming...So the dollar should be climbing...The reason the dollar might be struggling ties back to yesterday's....Parts of the market are warming up to Trump but the past two days of S&P....There is a disbelief in Trump, if not a disgust/exhaustion from international....In separate comments on immigration Wednesday he pledged to build a wall and....At the end of the day, likeability is still a factor...What we don't want to miss is the short-term upside...Protectionism and wasteful spending are long-term drags but in the short term....That's a dollar positive...So while the market is in denial in the short-term, higher rates, stocks and....At the same time, we remain watchful of data, especially inflation...New Zealand released Q4 numbers early in Asia and the showed a 0...4% q/q price rise compared to 0...3% expected.
