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Results: 71 to 80 of 1,000
Results: 71 to 80 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: Open Access to Video for all
by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 28, 2018 22:07After a wild week of trading (mainly in indices), I am opening access to the....In it I lay out the rationale for the intermediate bounce in indices (despite....Have a goood weekend...Full video. -
Intraday Market Thought: GBP Jumps, USD's Longest Loss since Jan 2018
by Adam Button | Jan 11, 2019 17:13The US dollar will close lower for the 4th consecutive week, the longest losing....But the big news of the day is sterling's rally, emerging on the news of a....2 new trades were issued for Premium subscribers on a never-before issued....nbsp;....GBP is the strongest currency of the day, breaking above $1...2850 among suggestions from Conservative rebel Dominic Grieve urging PM May to....Notably, Despite denying such plans by May's spokesman, sterling remains at....The US dollar attempted a comeback on Friday as US December CPI came in mostly....9% y/y from 2...2% y/y, thus bolstering the Fed's caser to stay on the sidelines...USD's stabilisation of the last 48 hours is hardly sufficient to convince....Another wave of Fed speakers highlighted risks and challenges to the US economy...On Thursday, Powell repeated that the FOMC can be patient in what now looks....One notable independent move was Thursday's drop in the Swiss franc...The selling came after the SNB reported that it lost 15 billion francs last year...It's an unusual central bank in that there are shareholders and it pays a....It holds a massive amount of foreign currency reserves with about 20%....They posted a loss and there was speculation that traders are worried....There was also talk of intervention...There were no answers but USD/CHF traced out an outside bullish reversal after.. -
Intraday Market Thought: GBP Peak Volatility?
by Adam Button | Mar 12, 2019 20:33The reversal came on positive risk sentiment more broadly...The S&P 500 jumped and the US retail sales control group was up 1...1% compared to +0...6% expected...The caveat was that December was revised lower to -2...3% from -1...7% in what's now the worst reading since 2000...There are many moving parts but ultimately there should be more clarity....So on net, the path to the upside may be the easier way forward, but it's.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Charts Held up by Powell's Fundamentals
by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 11, 2019 12:46
It was another blatant example of fundamentals rushing to line up with....Just as the pain suffered by USD shorts was escalating on Tuesday, Fed Chair....To those starting out in currencies, this is not the first time the US dollar....This is also frequent in the case of the euro and the ECB, when the currency....US CPI up next...List of today's Fed speakers with times (see below)....No, no...Powell's main objective is NOT to talk down the US dollar...Rather, he simply reminded markets of might have been lost on them -- That....nbsp;....What does it all mean to traders? 2 hours prior to Powell's testimony, I....As we speak, EURUSD is testing 1...1280 ahead of US CPI, while GBPUSD leads near 1...2570s...Tune in for the 2nd day of Powell's testimony (to the Senate)....nbsp;....Here's the list and times of today Fed speakers: (all times are London or....Williams 16:10...Bostic 17:15...Barkin 17:30...Quarles 18:30...Williams 18:30...Kashkari 22:..
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Intraday Market Thought: Charts Reaction to Latest US China Rumblings
by Ashraf Laidi | Sep 2, 2019 20:25
Even during quiet holiday hours of US Labor Day, US officials managed to move....Markets reaction was negative, and here's how it panned out in the 5-min..
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Intraday Market Thought: Italy Extends Nation-Wide Virus Lockdown
by Adam Button | Mar 9, 2020 23:07
The world's ninth-largest country is poised to slow to a standstill after....The yen was the top performer Monday while the Canadian dollar lagged...US stocks suffered their worst day since 2008 and oil its worst day since 1991...A new Premium trade has been posted & sent, supported by 2 charts &....If Italy is a preview of what's to come for the rest of the developed world....The country restricted movement throughout the country, closed all....Travel is still allowed for work...The government is preparing to raise its deficit target to 2...8% of GDP from 2...2% but that's a fantasy...GDP will be in freefall in March and until the virus is contained and tax....While bond yields globally were cratering on Monday, Italian yields rose....The ultimate level of 1...42% is still ultra-low but it's a warning that the market won't....Greek bonds also slumped...So what's next? The most-likely scenario is an endless stream of....Any subsquent central bank cut will be met with news like today's from....In all likelihood, the numbers will be much higher...The second-order economic effects are just beginning and those include lower....Mix in the potential for political and social unrest and it's not tough to....As for oil, there is no way to draw a line under crude with production....We've warned about this for a month...The loonie slumped Monday but what's surprising is how long it has held up...A series of domestic missteps put Canada on the doorstep of recession before....Even at 1...3700, the loonie is asleep to the risks.
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Intraday Market Thought: What Does the Fed See?
by Adam Button | Jul 29, 2020 17:32
Wednesday's FOMC meeting comes with little fanfare and even less scope for....CHF, EUR and GBP are the outperformers, while silver, kiwi and gold are the....Watch what Powell will say about inflation, its targetting and the USD...US consumer confident painted a troubling picture...The Pre-Fed Premium English & Arabic Video for Premium susbcribers is found....Also watch how Powell answers questions on the US dollar -- as Ashraf alluded to....nbsp;....There are increasing signs of a retrenchment in the US economy...Another came Tuesday with consumer confident falling to 92...6 from 98...3...Economists were forecasting 95...0 but the miss was probably priced into markets after a similar miss in the....The drop in the 'expectations' component was particularly worrisome as....5 from 106...1...It's one of the better leading indicators and is now only modestly....The change in tone isn't an aberration...There are an increasing number of high-frequency indicators that show a....In terms of that data, the Fed has access to some of the best numbers....The market is hungry for that kind of analysis and the risk is that the....If so, the market could recoil unless it's accompanied by strong....The danger is that vague hints of more action won't be enough for a market....With all that, the Fed may end up deferring to Congress and the need for....Another main axis for the decision will be the response of precious metals...The recent run-up is in danger of a retracement if the Fed isn't....The decision is at 1800 GMT followed by Powell's press conference 30 minutes..
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Intraday Market Thought: Oil in the Eye of the Hurricane
by Adam Button | Aug 26, 2020 14:01
Markets are not totally inactive ahead of Thursday's speech from Fed chair....In the span of a few months, oil went from the world's most-volatile....More below...nbsp; US durable goods orders jumped by 11% in July, beating expectations,....A new Premium trade was issued moments ago, backed by 3 charts & 5 key....Members of the WhatsApp Broadcast Group were alerted right after today's....nbsp;....The winds of Hurricane Laura continue to strengthen as it crosses the warm....That led to the highest close in WTI on Tuesday since the pandemic and also left....Laura is gaining in strength and appraoching to be a "catastrophic&....More than half a million people were ordered to evacuate in Texas and....Most offshore production is shut down and the storm is headed right for the....The problem for oil bulls is that a storm does nothing to change the overall....There's still 10m barrels of spare OPEC capacity and the latest mobility....With that, it's dangerous to see a short-term storm-inspired breakout as a....At the same time, commodities everywhere have been strong as the US dollar....At times, the Canadian dollar has acted as a good leading indicator for oil and....This is already the most-hated rally in history, why not add an oil chapter?....In terms of the broader risk trade, a big miss in August US consumer....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: Don't Watch if you Haven't Traded it لا تشاهد اذا ما تداولته
by Ashraf Laidi | Oct 7, 2020 2:05Forget Tuesday's testimonials ! Here is direct access to Tuesday's....Bring a ruler...Full Video لماذا وكيف حددنا قمة الداو 24 ساعة قبل.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Data Slows, Market Hesitant
by Adam Button | Nov 20, 2020 19:26
Economic data is slowing and policymakers are highlighting more....Markets are closely watching the deepening staff shortage in US hospitals....nbsp; USD ended the week weaker against all major currencies, while....nbsp; 10-year yield was capped below the Sep trendline resistance and....NASDAQ remain supressed at the 11990/00 trendline resistance, while ....nbsp;....Thursday's initial jobless claims report showed went in the wrong....This was also reference week for non-farm payrolls so there is some weakness....Pandemic emergency claims also rose week-over-week – they're slated to....Other reports from the Philly Fed and on existing home sales were strong but the....The latest tracking data from JPMorgan shows lower credit card spending in....The Fed's Mester also warned that economic data is slowing and Kaplan said....More virus economic curbs continue to roll in and New York now appears to be....Those worries briefly hit equities on Wednesday but they bounced from an early....US health authorities reported that 1 in 5 hospitals anticipated critical staff....Shortages are worst in the Midwest...The FX market also brushed off the worries as the dollar softened and....The risk-sensitive Mexican peso also traced out an outside day in an....The market isn't blind to the looming virus curbs, the coming dark....The market continues to look beyond the virus and dips on negative news about....More likely to move the market is weekend positioning in sterling...There's chatter about a Brexit breakthrough (as always) but we're....nbsp;..
