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Results: 71 to 80 of 1,000
Results: 71 to 80 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: Energy Fever Breaks
by Adam Button | Oct 7, 2021 17:08
A potential blow off top in gas prices could have broader implications...A resolution to the US debt ceiling should take down the temperature in....US weekly jobless claims fell sharply by 38K to 326K last week, following....China returns from holiday...nbsp; The FTSE100 long was stopped out at a tight stop of 6980, but those who....Today's new Index trade is +120 pts in the green so far...Below are the Oct 2013-2021 market similarities involving the debt ceiling....nbsp;....The monumental move in European gas and energy prices ratcheted up to a new....However, the move reversed and prices finished 10% lower, in part due to....It's far too early to call a top for certain, but the spike higher and....A cold winter could ultimately leave parts of Europe in a dire situation but....There's also a fair chance that hedges or a short squeeze added to the....Gas prices in Europe and North America, along with oil, all carved out bearish....German stocks in particular may be a clear beneficiary if energy prices....Tail risks also fell in the US as Congressional leaders signaled a short-....That will give Democrats time to add it to a reconciliation bill or we'll do....In any case, markets breathed a sigh of relief from another manufactured crisis...Ultimately, it will be the economy that decides were markets go...The ADP employment report has been a poor jobs tracker but it foreshadowed....Wednesday's report showed 568K jobs compared to 428K expected...nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: Yields Pause, Metals Jump, Dax Breaks out
by Adam Button | Oct 22, 2021 15:36
President Biden said there will be no tax hikes on high earners or US....The dollar fell across the board, with both CNHUSD and XAGUSD posting their 3rd....nbsp; The week ended with stronger Canada retail sales, mixed PMIs in....Gold jumped more than $30 to 1812, reaching the target of the inverted head-....More specifically, the GoldBugs ratio fell below its 100 DMA and 21 WMA ....The subsequent posts show the progress of the trade as well as in XAGUSD...A new Premium trade was posted earlier today...Heads up for Powell's speech at 11:00 am Eastern (15:00 GMT)....Biden relayed on US TV late Thursday that Democratic Sen Sinema said she will....Perhaps that's a tactic to put pressure on her but it likely means that....It will likely mean a considerably smaller package but ongoing low taxes....We will continue to keep a close eye on what comes next and the potential....In the bigger picture on Thursday, there was a retracement in yen weakness that....It's likely to be a standard dip after an extended one-way move but it....Economic data continues to send positive signals with a strong US existing home....For Canada, the final piece of economic data ahead of next week's BOC will....That sector has been a drag in Q3 while the rest of the economy hums...It would take an especially weak print to spoil a hawkish turn from the BOC.
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Intraday Market Thought: BoC Done, ECB Dithers, Fed Tinkers
by Adam Button | Oct 28, 2021 13:16
The loonie pared half of Wednesday's +100 pip jump after the BOC took a....The Fed is likely to start tapering this month or the next (question is whether....The first look at US Q3 GDP is coming up next, exp at 2...6% from 6...7%....DAX and Nasdaq remain boosted by falling yields, especially the tumble in "....Here is the long term chart for US real yields...What do you see? Watch the video for the implications of these developments...Yesterday we flagged the risk that the BOC could skip the second-to-last step....That's what happened as the pace of purchases was dropped to zero from $2B/....In addition, the BOC moved up its timeline for the closure of the output....That's when rate hikes will be firmly on the table...What may be most important is what wasn't said...The BOC would surely know that the market is pricing in four hikes in 2022....Silence isn't a full endorsement but it's a step in that direction...With that, USD/CAD fell 125 pips on the news to 1...2300...It later retraced 65 pips on a broad USD bid that was wrapped up in some large....It all bears close watching but could be a symptom of month end...Next up is the advance look at Q3 US GDP...The consensus is 2...7% q/q annualized and estimates range from +0...7% to +5...0% as economists struggle to forecast the impacts of bottlenecks and delta...Adding a downside risk was a surprisingly large US trade deficit in....One forecast that got some extra attention was the Atlanta Fed tracker,....2%....That's dangerously close to contraction...The inclination is to fade any moves on a soft report because Q4 is looking much....The baseline is $15B per month but Powell may indicate that it's..
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Intraday Market Thought: Ashraf on BNN Earlier Today
by Ashraf Laidi | Feb 23, 2017 17:03
Ashraf on the Fed's next step in light of Trump's fiscal plan...Play.
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Intraday Market Thought: Open Access to Video for all
by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 28, 2018 22:07After a wild week of trading (mainly in indices), I am opening access to the....In it I lay out the rationale for the intermediate bounce in indices (despite....Have a goood weekend...Full video. -
Intraday Market Thought: GBP Jumps, USD's Longest Loss since Jan 2018
by Adam Button | Jan 11, 2019 17:13The US dollar will close lower for the 4th consecutive week, the longest losing....But the big news of the day is sterling's rally, emerging on the news of a....2 new trades were issued for Premium subscribers on a never-before issued....nbsp;....GBP is the strongest currency of the day, breaking above $1...2850 among suggestions from Conservative rebel Dominic Grieve urging PM May to....Notably, Despite denying such plans by May's spokesman, sterling remains at....The US dollar attempted a comeback on Friday as US December CPI came in mostly....9% y/y from 2...2% y/y, thus bolstering the Fed's caser to stay on the sidelines...USD's stabilisation of the last 48 hours is hardly sufficient to convince....Another wave of Fed speakers highlighted risks and challenges to the US economy...On Thursday, Powell repeated that the FOMC can be patient in what now looks....One notable independent move was Thursday's drop in the Swiss franc...The selling came after the SNB reported that it lost 15 billion francs last year...It's an unusual central bank in that there are shareholders and it pays a....It holds a massive amount of foreign currency reserves with about 20%....They posted a loss and there was speculation that traders are worried....There was also talk of intervention...There were no answers but USD/CHF traced out an outside bullish reversal after.. -
Intraday Market Thought: GBP Peak Volatility?
by Adam Button | Mar 12, 2019 20:33The reversal came on positive risk sentiment more broadly...The S&P 500 jumped and the US retail sales control group was up 1...1% compared to +0...6% expected...The caveat was that December was revised lower to -2...3% from -1...7% in what's now the worst reading since 2000...There are many moving parts but ultimately there should be more clarity....So on net, the path to the upside may be the easier way forward, but it's.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Charts Held up by Powell's Fundamentals
by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 11, 2019 12:46
It was another blatant example of fundamentals rushing to line up with....Just as the pain suffered by USD shorts was escalating on Tuesday, Fed Chair....To those starting out in currencies, this is not the first time the US dollar....This is also frequent in the case of the euro and the ECB, when the currency....US CPI up next...List of today's Fed speakers with times (see below)....No, no...Powell's main objective is NOT to talk down the US dollar...Rather, he simply reminded markets of might have been lost on them -- That....nbsp;....What does it all mean to traders? 2 hours prior to Powell's testimony, I....As we speak, EURUSD is testing 1...1280 ahead of US CPI, while GBPUSD leads near 1...2570s...Tune in for the 2nd day of Powell's testimony (to the Senate)....nbsp;....Here's the list and times of today Fed speakers: (all times are London or....Williams 16:10...Bostic 17:15...Barkin 17:30...Quarles 18:30...Williams 18:30...Kashkari 22:..
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Intraday Market Thought: Charts Reaction to Latest US China Rumblings
by Ashraf Laidi | Sep 2, 2019 20:25
Even during quiet holiday hours of US Labor Day, US officials managed to move....Markets reaction was negative, and here's how it panned out in the 5-min..
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Intraday Market Thought: Italy Extends Nation-Wide Virus Lockdown
by Adam Button | Mar 9, 2020 23:07
The world's ninth-largest country is poised to slow to a standstill after....The yen was the top performer Monday while the Canadian dollar lagged...US stocks suffered their worst day since 2008 and oil its worst day since 1991...A new Premium trade has been posted & sent, supported by 2 charts &....If Italy is a preview of what's to come for the rest of the developed world....The country restricted movement throughout the country, closed all....Travel is still allowed for work...The government is preparing to raise its deficit target to 2...8% of GDP from 2...2% but that's a fantasy...GDP will be in freefall in March and until the virus is contained and tax....While bond yields globally were cratering on Monday, Italian yields rose....The ultimate level of 1...42% is still ultra-low but it's a warning that the market won't....Greek bonds also slumped...So what's next? The most-likely scenario is an endless stream of....Any subsquent central bank cut will be met with news like today's from....In all likelihood, the numbers will be much higher...The second-order economic effects are just beginning and those include lower....Mix in the potential for political and social unrest and it's not tough to....As for oil, there is no way to draw a line under crude with production....We've warned about this for a month...The loonie slumped Monday but what's surprising is how long it has held up...A series of domestic missteps put Canada on the doorstep of recession before....Even at 1...3700, the loonie is asleep to the risks.
