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Results: 821 to 830 of 1,000
Results: 821 to 830 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: Cars the Latest Driver?
by Adam Button | Oct 4, 2017 14:22
Stepping back momentarily from central banks & macro data, could the best....All currencies are up against USD since the close of Tuesday's NY session,....GBP got a lift from better than expected services PMI, keeping alive hopes of a....We turn to the US services ISM at 15:00 and Yellen's speech at 20:15 London....nbsp; A new Premium trade has been posted and sent...US auto sales smashed expectations in September with sales at an 18...57m pace, up from 16...14m in December and beating the 17...4m estimate...Optimists will say consumers are opening their wallets, buoyed by a better jobs....Pessimists will sale say that replacements after hurricane Harvey....The Fed's bias is to see good news as real and bad news as temporary so the....Odds of a December Fed hike remain little changed at 70%....Yellen's speech today fires up an avalanche of speeches from Fed members....S&P 500 hit yet-another record high, climbing 5 points to 2534...NASDAQ is now at 4800.
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Intraday Market Thought: Sterling Stoked by Inflation Revision
by Adam Button | Oct 10, 2017 10:05
Politics vs economics...They dont always go hand in hand...A surprise correction in UK wages from UK statistics officials on Monday helped....This morning's UK data on trade (negative) and industrial production....The decision to close the Premium long in EURGBP on Friday for 100 pip gain....Now we look for a better entry...nbsp;....Cable gained a full cent after the ONS revised Q2 labour unit costs to 2...4% from 1...6% y/y...That's a big shift for the BOE and helps to underpin hopes for a Nov 2 hike...The market is pricing a 78% chance that Carney pulls the trigger then...NZD remains the worst performer of the week because of an election where the....Coalition negotiations are ongoing but the uncertainty could continue to weigh....It was an unusual day in North American markets...Canada was closed while in the US the bond and futures markets were closed but....After a hitting a record high, the S&P 500 stumbled late to finish down 5....1740...Expect a barrage of speeches from global central bankers and finance ministers....This coincides with the 10-year anniversary of the peak in gobal indices...nbsp;....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +91K vs +88K prior...GBP +20K vs +5K prior...JPY -85K vs -71K prior...CHF –3...2K vs -1...8K prior...CAD +75K vs +75K prior...AUD +72K vs 77K prior...NZD +8K vs +8K prior....Sterling traders are really licking their wounds...They finally put on a sizeable long and it blew up on political drama...Those holding CAD and AUD longs are likely beginning to feel some jitters.
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Intraday Market Thought: Crucial GBP Week
by Ashraf Laidi | Oct 17, 2017 13:53Thursday's crucial EU summit over Brexit will determin the balance between EU's....Despite 3...0% CPI, GBP is the day's worst performer...Full analysis. -
Intraday Market Thought: BOC to Back Off, Big Day Ahead
by Adam Button | Oct 24, 2017 23:22
The 2nd half of the week is underway, featuring non-stop news including....On Tuesday, the euro was the top performer while the New Zealand dollar....Bad news on the tax reform plan and chatter of a Taylor nomination (see....Australian CPI, UK GDP and the BOC decision are up next...USD/CAD touched the highest since mid-August on Tuesday in a sign that the....USD/CAD broke the 100-day moving average and neared 1...27 as the +200 pip gain since Friday's soft retail sales reported extended...That data point is a big reason why few expect another hike from Poloz...However the market is pricing in a 18% chance of higher rates because of the....If the BOC decides to remain on the sidelines, signals about the December....The market is pricing in a 46% chance of a hike on Dec 6 and that rises to 72%....If the BOC moves to a clear neutral stance, expect a sharp rally in USD/CAD...The other side of that trade is also dangerous...US 10-year yields broke above 2...40% Tuesday in a move that Bill Gross said could signal the end of the....That helped to push USD/JPY briefly above 114...00...At the same time, politics remains a dominant theme...USD fell on talk that Trump's tax cut plan doesn't have enough votes....Competing with that was a report that John Taylor won an informal Senate....Aside from the BOC and Fed, look for big moves in the Australian and UK....At 0030 GMT, the Q3 Australian CPI report is due and expected to show a 0...8% q/q rise...The trimmed mean is forecast at +0...5% q/q and a miss there will be a market driver...At 0830 GMT, pound traders will be locked into the first look at UK Q3 GDP...The consensus is for a +0...3% reading and a miss in either direction will have major implications..
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Intraday Market Thought: Tax Reform is no 2005 for USD
by Ashraf Laidi | Nov 6, 2017 11:59Here is why last week's Tax reform bill from the US House Republicans is....nbsp; Full analysis. -
Intraday Market Thought: The Quiet Trade
by Adam Button | Nov 20, 2017 23:11
Everything else equal, what's the trade? That's the question we pose....The pound was the top performer while the euro lagged...The RBA meeting minutes are up next...A 2nd EUR trade was issued today with 3 charts & notes as part of the....تدقيق اليورو، الاسترليني و الذهب (فيديو للمشتركين للصفقات القادمة والمستقبلية)....German politics will likely remain the major headline-maker in a week with a....Merkel and her potential coalition partners have reached an impasse and are....The President is attempting to broker a deal and Merkel said she doesn't....Expect some twists and turns but none of the potential scenarios are likely to....Initially, EUR/USD slumped 70 pips on the headlines but it recovered...Later in the day, EURUSD sagged again but that was part of a broader climb in....And that brings us to the quiet trade...Risk assets have benefitted in nearly every environment over the past decade....That was the story on Monday and it's likely to be the same (especially in....That could help to underpin a minor rebound in the yen crosses and a creep....Expect higher volatility in Asia and Europe...The Aussie could be on the move when the RBA meeting minutes are released at....Commentary about wages and financial stability is key along with insights....Another event to watch is the 0430 GMT Japanese all industry activity index...It's forecast to fall 0...4% m/m.
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Intraday Market Thought: See you in London This Evening
by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 7, 2017 15:39Looking forward to seeing you at my seminar at GKFX's London heaquarters....nbsp; Register.. -
Intraday Market Thought: ECB Preview & Fed Review
by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 14, 2017 13:13
The main reasons to the US dollar's post-Fed decline and a look ahead of the....nbsp; Full article.
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Intraday Market Thought: Draghi & Poloz Spin it again
by Adam Button | Dec 15, 2017 10:50
ECB president Draghi and BoC governor Poloz showdd their usual rhetorcial....Yen pushes higher after the Tankan manufacturing survey hit 11-year high...USD is down cross the board after on fresh roadblocks to US tax reform, this....Up next is US industrial production and further chatter on the tax bills...Draghi left the ECB's forward guidance unchanged along with interest....The staff boosted growth up to 2...3% next year from 1...8% while bumping 2019 to 1...9% from 1...7%....In spite of that, inflation forecasts were only nudged up to 1...4% next year from 1...2% and unchanged at 1...5% in 2019...One of the major risks Draghi cited was the FX rate, keeping a lid on the....In the aftermath of the press conference, EURUSD remarkably slid to 1...1780 from 1...1850 in the face of rising sentiment and improving data...On the flipside is BOC Governor Stephen Poloz continued to confound markets...8 days after the CAD began a sharp descent following the central bank's....He also added that the 50-bp rate hikes of the last 6 months were not expected....USD/CAD fell by 1205 pips to 1...2850 only to rebound to 1...2800 around the US close...It is now trading at 1...2750, sending the USDCAD short of the Premium Insights back into the green...Markets are now pricing a 62% chance of a hike in March but we struggle to see....Also note that Canadian oil is now trading at a $28 discount to WTI in a..
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Intraday Market Thought: Canadian Climb
by Adam Button | Dec 22, 2017 12:17
Aside from the 20-30% decline in the price of cryptocurrencies, which may be....The Canadian dollar was the top performer Thursday while the Swiss franc....In a last minute decision, the Premium Insights issued a short on GBPUSD 15....The pair fell 100 pips as both figures overshot expectations...Recall that CAD (not USD) was the highest performing currency of 2016...Canada GDP and US PCE report are both due at 8:30 EST (13:30 GMT/London)....The CAD gains on Thursday came after a rise in the CPI and a sizzling retail....Prices rose 2...1% y/y compared to 2...0% expected and most core measures climbed...Retail sales rose 1...5% compared to 0...3% expected...Poloz on the weekend said that the note about 'caution' in the BOC....Oil prices are also nearing the best levels of the year...Additionally, China could help lift all commodity prices next year and on Friday....The problems for the Canadian dollar include the huge gap in Canadian oil,....The USD/CAD chart tells the story as the pair ranges between 1...2650 and 1...2915...A break on either side will be increasingly important...The risk is that it comes in low liquidity in the next week or so...In that case, it might be best to wait until the dust settles...It's a similar story in AUD/USD as it rose above the 200-day moving average....That's a greenlight but a whopping $3...5B in expirations at 0...7700 on Friday could pin it down and then it's into the year-end doldrums,....To close out the week, watch for the November US PCE report and Canadian GDP....In the US report, eye the personal spending metrics and for any signs of..
