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Results: 821 to 830 of 1,000
Results: 821 to 830 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: One year after Brexit Referendum
by Ashraf Laidi | Jun 23, 2017 14:09
One year after Britain voted to leave the European Union, the UK's woes....Ever since the Conservatives' disappointing election performance, we....Such severe loss of bargaining power with UK MPs and the EU is changing....Since last year's referendum, the FTSE100 is up 16% and 27% from Brexit....GDP growth plummeted to a 3-year low of 0...3% in Q1 2015 (the quarter before the referendum), rebounded to 0...7% in Q4 2016, but a renewed slowdown in Q1 2017 to 0...2 raises questions about the health of economic activity ahead...Earnings remain the worry as real wages (after inflation) turned negative to -1...2%, from 2...9% in summer 2016, suggesting UK consumer power would be the last item to....Any detailed macro-economic analysis does not warrant more attention as the....UK Bankers and most services industry will be looking (hoping) at the..
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Intraday Market Thought: Ashraf on BNN 1 yr into Brexit
by Ashraf Laidi | Jun 25, 2017 15:57
Ashraf's take on the UK economic and political evolution since the Brexit....Full interview.
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Intraday Market Thought: Ashraf's Bitcoin Idea on RV TV
by Ashraf Laidi | Aug 2, 2017 13:41
Ashraf Laidi, CEO of Intermarket Strategy, applies a technical currency....Full analysis on Real Vision TV.
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Intraday Market Thought: Euro also Wins the Small Battles
by Adam Button | Aug 8, 2017 15:02
The big battles in FX are the ones that matter--aggressive reversals and one....But the small victories are often telling too...The euro was the top performer on Monday while the New Zealand dollar lagged...Expect a more lively market on Tuesday after holidays in Canada and Australia...The same can be said about USDJPY...China's trade balance rose to $46...8 bn in July, while imports advanced 11% instead of the expected 18%....A new Premium trade was issued yesterday 3 charts, added to the 6 existing....The Monday after July non-farm payrolls is usually one of the quieter days of....USD continued its post-NFP momentum higher on a few fronts, but one....EUR/USD hit a high....3 bn of 1...1814 but couldn't regain the 61...8% retracement of the fall to 1...1735...That comes in at 1...1820 and is a level to watch in the days ahead...In any case, the way the euro was bid up without any news reflects prevalent....Cable meanwhile touched a slightly lower low and floundered along the bottom...USD/CAD also continued higher to touch above 1...27 as oil slipped...On the news front, Fed doves Kashkari and Bullard didn't offer anything....The President headed away on a 17-day holiday but any thoughts that he might....Germany's trade surplus edged up EUR 22 bn, reminding the FX world of the....The US JOLTS are also due next.
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Intraday Market Thought: Pound Soars, USD Gains Further
by Adam Button | Sep 12, 2017 21:44A surprise rise in UK inflation put a BOE hike back on the table while the US....The pound was the top performer while the yen lagged...Japanese PPI and the quarter business conditions index is due up next...Our GBPUSD Premium trade is +200 pips in the green, while the GBPJPY was stopped....A new Premium video focusing on yesterday's new trade balances time....The pound showed what a sliver of inflation can do after CPI rose 3...9% y/y compared to 3...7% expected on Tuesday...Cable climbed 120 pips and GBP/JPY rose nearly 250 pips...The rally in GBP/USD broke the August high and 1...3298 was the best in nearly a year...Wednesday's UK jobs figures could help sway Thursday's MPC voting from....The BOC showed what can happen to a currency when a central bank changes....The BoE's OIS market is now pricing a 35% chance of a November hike,....In economic news, US JOLTS job openings were at 6...17m compared to 6...00m expected in another sliver of good economic news for the United States...The main drivers of dollar strength continued to be relief about Irma and....USD/JPY is now flat on the month after a brutal start, but more broadly it's a....The dollar is struggling to hold gains against the euro and cable begins to....Looking ahead, the Asia-Pacific calendar sports a few highlights including....It's expected to rise a healthy 3...0% when it's released at 2350 GMT...In a release at the same time, the MoF's survey of large manufacturers for Q3 is....0 from -2...9. -
Intraday Market Thought: Cars the Latest Driver?
by Adam Button | Oct 4, 2017 14:22
Stepping back momentarily from central banks & macro data, could the best....All currencies are up against USD since the close of Tuesday's NY session,....GBP got a lift from better than expected services PMI, keeping alive hopes of a....We turn to the US services ISM at 15:00 and Yellen's speech at 20:15 London....nbsp; A new Premium trade has been posted and sent...US auto sales smashed expectations in September with sales at an 18...57m pace, up from 16...14m in December and beating the 17...4m estimate...Optimists will say consumers are opening their wallets, buoyed by a better jobs....Pessimists will sale say that replacements after hurricane Harvey....The Fed's bias is to see good news as real and bad news as temporary so the....Odds of a December Fed hike remain little changed at 70%....Yellen's speech today fires up an avalanche of speeches from Fed members....S&P 500 hit yet-another record high, climbing 5 points to 2534...NASDAQ is now at 4800.
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Intraday Market Thought: Sterling Stoked by Inflation Revision
by Adam Button | Oct 10, 2017 10:05
Politics vs economics...They dont always go hand in hand...A surprise correction in UK wages from UK statistics officials on Monday helped....This morning's UK data on trade (negative) and industrial production....The decision to close the Premium long in EURGBP on Friday for 100 pip gain....Now we look for a better entry...nbsp;....Cable gained a full cent after the ONS revised Q2 labour unit costs to 2...4% from 1...6% y/y...That's a big shift for the BOE and helps to underpin hopes for a Nov 2 hike...The market is pricing a 78% chance that Carney pulls the trigger then...NZD remains the worst performer of the week because of an election where the....Coalition negotiations are ongoing but the uncertainty could continue to weigh....It was an unusual day in North American markets...Canada was closed while in the US the bond and futures markets were closed but....After a hitting a record high, the S&P 500 stumbled late to finish down 5....1740...Expect a barrage of speeches from global central bankers and finance ministers....This coincides with the 10-year anniversary of the peak in gobal indices...nbsp;....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +91K vs +88K prior...GBP +20K vs +5K prior...JPY -85K vs -71K prior...CHF –3...2K vs -1...8K prior...CAD +75K vs +75K prior...AUD +72K vs 77K prior...NZD +8K vs +8K prior....Sterling traders are really licking their wounds...They finally put on a sizeable long and it blew up on political drama...Those holding CAD and AUD longs are likely beginning to feel some jitters.
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Intraday Market Thought: Crucial GBP Week
by Ashraf Laidi | Oct 17, 2017 13:53Thursday's crucial EU summit over Brexit will determin the balance between EU's....Despite 3...0% CPI, GBP is the day's worst performer...Full analysis. -
Intraday Market Thought: BOC to Back Off, Big Day Ahead
by Adam Button | Oct 24, 2017 23:22
The 2nd half of the week is underway, featuring non-stop news including....On Tuesday, the euro was the top performer while the New Zealand dollar....Bad news on the tax reform plan and chatter of a Taylor nomination (see....Australian CPI, UK GDP and the BOC decision are up next...USD/CAD touched the highest since mid-August on Tuesday in a sign that the....USD/CAD broke the 100-day moving average and neared 1...27 as the +200 pip gain since Friday's soft retail sales reported extended...That data point is a big reason why few expect another hike from Poloz...However the market is pricing in a 18% chance of higher rates because of the....If the BOC decides to remain on the sidelines, signals about the December....The market is pricing in a 46% chance of a hike on Dec 6 and that rises to 72%....If the BOC moves to a clear neutral stance, expect a sharp rally in USD/CAD...The other side of that trade is also dangerous...US 10-year yields broke above 2...40% Tuesday in a move that Bill Gross said could signal the end of the....That helped to push USD/JPY briefly above 114...00...At the same time, politics remains a dominant theme...USD fell on talk that Trump's tax cut plan doesn't have enough votes....Competing with that was a report that John Taylor won an informal Senate....Aside from the BOC and Fed, look for big moves in the Australian and UK....At 0030 GMT, the Q3 Australian CPI report is due and expected to show a 0...8% q/q rise...The trimmed mean is forecast at +0...5% q/q and a miss there will be a market driver...At 0830 GMT, pound traders will be locked into the first look at UK Q3 GDP...The consensus is for a +0...3% reading and a miss in either direction will have major implications..
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Intraday Market Thought: Tax Reform is no 2005 for USD
by Ashraf Laidi | Nov 6, 2017 11:59Here is why last week's Tax reform bill from the US House Republicans is....nbsp; Full analysis.
