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Results: 861 to 870 of 1,000
Results: 861 to 870 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: USD Implications of Fed’s Symmetric Objective
by Ashraf Laidi | May 3, 2018 18:05Wednesday's FOMC statement had a phrase that was ideal for gold bulls...Would it be welcomed by USD bears? Full analysis here..
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Intraday Market Thought: Cable at 200-dma, NFP Next
by Adam Button | May 4, 2018 12:46The US dollar is up against all major currencies with the exception of the....European indices are back in positive territory but US futures indices are in....The pain in cable continued on Thursday with a drop to a fresh low dating back....Non-farm payrolls are due up next (see details below) and Premium trades are....Cable attempted to bounce but a broad bid in the US dollar on risk aversion....3535...That number is significant because it's exactly the 200-day moving average...Whether due to technical buying or a reversal in equity market fears, cable....3570 from there to finish flat on the day...A report in the Telegraph said the UK could remain in the customs union until....On net, that's good news as a lengthened timeline will encourage some....We're also now less than a week away from the BOE meeting and with odds of a....The market is pricing just a 52...6% of a rate rise through the September 13 meeting...Onto US Jobs....In the short-term, the US dollar side of the equation is the bigger risk...Friday brings non-farm payrolls and a renewed focus on wage inflation...The consensus for jobs is 192K but note that the employment component of the ISM....6 compared to 56...6 prior and that's a downside risk...Still, the market will be overwhelmingly focused on wage growth with average....2% m/m and 2...7% y/y...A higher reading could send 10-year yields right back to 3% from 2...94% Thursday...If so, the dollar could make broad gains outside of USD/JPY where risk aversion....We also continue to keep an eye on emerging markets after Argentina's....25%....The Argentine peso continued to fall Thursday and is now down 8...2% over two days and other EM currencies are suffering as well, adding a board..
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Intraday Market Thought: Recording of Yesterday's Webinar
by Ashraf Laidi | May 4, 2018 19:03I don't usually send out the recording of my webinars, but I'm....Full recording. -
Intraday Market Thought: Black Smoke & Franc Divergence
by Ashraf Laidi | May 23, 2018 17:15Recent Swiss franc strength extended to the point of gaining versus all major....Not coincidentally, the start of this period coincided with the breakout in....But there are other factors enforcing franc strength...Will the currency require continuous fear in order to maintain its gains...Full analysis.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Contagion Has Limits
by Adam Button | May 29, 2018 23:40Contagion usually has limits, especially considering the unavoidbale truth that....Italian bond suffered their worst day since the peak of the Eurozone crisis as....The yen was the top performer while the euro lagged...Month-to-date, silver is the strongest, followed by the franc & the yen...Euro is the weakest, just ahead of the pound...A new JPY trade has been issued to subscribers, explained in detailed in....It was a harrowing day in the Italian debt market with 10-year yields rising....16%....It's the continuation of a one-way move that started in the second week of....80% in response to political turmoil...A new election is now the likely scenario and may come as soon as July 29...Efforts to form a caretaker government have stumbled in part because some....What's more important at the moment is that the worries have spread...Italy is the fourth-largest debt market in the world and the turmoil created a....In turn, the yen and Swiss franc soared...Indices fell hard, with the DOW30 dropping over 400 pts...2 weeks ago our Premium short in the DOW30 Premium was stopped out at 25,050,....What's next? The contagion has a limit...There is clearly some forced selling in Italian debt at the moment...Once (if it) it ends, debt elsewhere will stabilize and reverse the yen moves...The Swiss franc may maintain a stronger bid due to its proximity to Italy...nbsp; Ultimately, the trouble in Italy will be contained – this isn't....In the meantime, technicals are cautionary...EUR/JPY is at the lowest in 11-months and global equities took a hard hit...A strong rebound in some assets may be near but the euro may be slow to turn...In the short-term, domestic economic data is likely to be overshadowed by....Japanese retail sales and Australian building approvals are on the calendar....The Bank of Canada decision is later with the latest turmoil solidifying at..
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Intraday Market Thought: 7 Reasons Not to Panic over Italy
by Ashraf Laidi | Jun 1, 2018 15:56As Italy presents a new government on Friday,the stream of Euroscepticism....But here's why the reality won't live up to the fear...Full analysis.
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Intraday Market Thought: Watch the Fed's "S" Word
by Ashraf Laidi | Jun 13, 2018 17:17The Fed decision is due at 14:00 Eastern Time, 19:00 London, and is widely....75%-2...00%....The immediate USD reaction will be in function of the number of additional....Expect USD to decline specifically against AUD, CAD, NZD and EUR in the....But if...مواجهة الفدرالي و المركزي إلاوروبي (فيديو المشتركين)....If two or more rate hikes are signalled, then expect a knee-jerk climb in the....Why?....The “S” word....Fed chair Powell has not only spoken of his lack of enthusiasm for the dot plot....A symmetric objective to inflation means the Fed anticipates inflation to reach....0% target and is willing to allow it to edge towards 2...5%, just as it has allowed to undershoot to as low as 1...4% last summer...Recall that the Fed's inflation gauge (core PCE) stood at 1...8% y/y in March and April...Said differently, just as the Fed did not interrupt its campaign of gradual....2% or 2...3%....The Usual Bonds Argument....As the Fed sells more treasuries to reduce its balance sheet & US govt....Holding back on price tightening (Fed hikes) will also be consistent with the....e...allowing inflation to run towards 2...3% and event 2...5%....This is exactly what gold bulls will want and USD bears are waiting for...We have a list of existing trades for Premium subscribers ahead of the Fed and..
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Intraday Market Thought: The BOC Doesn’t Guide
by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 11, 2018 11:56Global indices are lower across the board after last night's White House....This will not only trigger further action from China at the expense of....nbsp; The DAX short was stopped out yesterday 12580...A new Premium index trad ehas been posted & sent...nbsp; All eyes shift to the Bank of Canada decision at 15:00 BST/London Time...In the past decade the market has been conditioned toward central bank signals....Sterling was the top performer on the day while the yen lagged until China....CFTC positioning shows specs betting on a dovish Bank of Canada...BOC Governor Poloz has a problem with forward guidance...He doesn't believe in signaling to markets about what's coming next...Instead, he touts data dependence and says each BOC statement is a blank....So when today's statement is released, it will almost-certainly....At the moment, much of the talk doing the rounds is suggesting the BOC will....That would be a complete departure from Poloz's preference against forward....Instead, the statement is likely to have references to better hiring, sales and....The talk of gradual hikes is also likely to be repeated along with the usual nod....On net, this is more likely to read as a hawkish statement and hurt USD/CAD...In the bigger picture, trade fears are ramping back up on reports that the US....The broader risk in the day ahead is that the short-lived trade optimism on....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +37K vs +34K prior...GBP -29K vs -22K prior...JPY -39K vs -34K prior...CAD -49K vs -33K prior...CHF -40K vs -38K prior...AUD -39K vs -41K prior...NZD -26K vs -18K prior....The CFTC numbers were released late Monday after the US holiday and are a....lower in USD/.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Trade Winds Boost Euro ahead of ECB
by Adam Button | Jul 25, 2018 23:04Trade headlines continue to dominate trading as upbeat comments from Trump....The Canadian dollar was the top performer while the US dollar lagged...The ECB decision is up next on Thursday...إشارة الدولار/ ين (فيديو للمشتركين فقط)....Trading around the headlines was an adventure Monday but ultimately led to a....Expectations were low for Juncker's trip to Washington and initially fell....EUR/USD fell as low as 1...1661 afterwards but began to turn around after initial positive comments before....As the meeting extended a report said the leaders were close to a deal and....Juncker doesn't have the power to unilaterally make these deals but we....In any case, the threat of immediate tariffs is lower...Separately, CAD and MXN made strong gains on a letter Trump sent to Lopez-....Calendar Guidance - How Specific?....Looking ahead, the ECB decision is due at 1145 GMT (12:45 London), but it's....Instead, the focus will be on messaging in the statement and in the press....The euro might be higher if not for the looming risk of this meeting...Focus on any rewording of the calendar guidance...Draghi is in a tough spot as he tries to retain an upbeat stance on the economy....In the past he has been a masterful messenger, but the tweaking and....If he can navigate the choppy waters, the underlying bias may be toward euro..
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Intraday Market Thought: GBP Damaged, Stocks Pause
by Adam Button | Aug 8, 2018 14:32GBP selling turns to a rout on Bloomberg reports that PM Theresa May is....90...nbsp; The DOW30 short was stopped out, while the remaining index short re-....It's also the time of year when flows are especially important and that was....CAD hopes turn to Friday's Canada jobs report...Later Tuesday, the US finalized $16 billion in fresh tariffs against China...The main fundamental worry on everyone's mind is a continued escalation...Reports say Trump made a pitch to tech executives about the virtues of tariffs...That's a hint that he's determined to raise the stakes...On the topic of escalation, US financial and trade sanctions hit Iran Tuesday....Europe continues to try to find a way to keep the deal intact but companies are....A possible next shoe to drop could be some kind of escalation by Iran via....Local unrest continues to grow...Looking east, Japan is suddenly full of intrigue...Reuters reported Monday that BOJ officials had floated the idea of two....Data on Tuesday also showed the biggest jump in wages since 1997...That was mainly driven by bonuses and overtime quirks but the underlying....Focus turns to Wednesday's US 10-year note sale...It's the first sale under the latest, higher auction sizes and it comes with....Whether or not it sells above that psychological level is likely to drive..