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Results: 861 to 870 of 1,000
Results: 861 to 870 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: Watch the Fed's "S" Word
by Ashraf Laidi | Jun 13, 2018 17:17
The Fed decision is due at 14:00 Eastern Time, 19:00 London, and is widely....75%-2...00%....The immediate USD reaction will be in function of the number of additional....Expect USD to decline specifically against AUD, CAD, NZD and EUR in the....But if...مواجهة الفدرالي و المركزي إلاوروبي (فيديو المشتركين)....If two or more rate hikes are signalled, then expect a knee-jerk climb in the....Why?....The “S” word....Fed chair Powell has not only spoken of his lack of enthusiasm for the dot plot....A symmetric objective to inflation means the Fed anticipates inflation to reach....0% target and is willing to allow it to edge towards 2...5%, just as it has allowed to undershoot to as low as 1...4% last summer...Recall that the Fed's inflation gauge (core PCE) stood at 1...8% y/y in March and April...Said differently, just as the Fed did not interrupt its campaign of gradual....2% or 2...3%....The Usual Bonds Argument....As the Fed sells more treasuries to reduce its balance sheet & US govt....Holding back on price tightening (Fed hikes) will also be consistent with the....e...allowing inflation to run towards 2...3% and event 2...5%....This is exactly what gold bulls will want and USD bears are waiting for...We have a list of existing trades for Premium subscribers ahead of the Fed and..
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Intraday Market Thought: The BOC Doesn’t Guide
by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 11, 2018 11:56Global indices are lower across the board after last night's White House....This will not only trigger further action from China at the expense of....nbsp; The DAX short was stopped out yesterday 12580...A new Premium index trad ehas been posted & sent...nbsp; All eyes shift to the Bank of Canada decision at 15:00 BST/London Time...In the past decade the market has been conditioned toward central bank signals....Sterling was the top performer on the day while the yen lagged until China....CFTC positioning shows specs betting on a dovish Bank of Canada...BOC Governor Poloz has a problem with forward guidance...He doesn't believe in signaling to markets about what's coming next...Instead, he touts data dependence and says each BOC statement is a blank....So when today's statement is released, it will almost-certainly....At the moment, much of the talk doing the rounds is suggesting the BOC will....That would be a complete departure from Poloz's preference against forward....Instead, the statement is likely to have references to better hiring, sales and....The talk of gradual hikes is also likely to be repeated along with the usual nod....On net, this is more likely to read as a hawkish statement and hurt USD/CAD...In the bigger picture, trade fears are ramping back up on reports that the US....The broader risk in the day ahead is that the short-lived trade optimism on....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +37K vs +34K prior...GBP -29K vs -22K prior...JPY -39K vs -34K prior...CAD -49K vs -33K prior...CHF -40K vs -38K prior...AUD -39K vs -41K prior...NZD -26K vs -18K prior....The CFTC numbers were released late Monday after the US holiday and are a....lower in USD/.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Trade Winds Boost Euro ahead of ECB
by Adam Button | Jul 25, 2018 23:04
Trade headlines continue to dominate trading as upbeat comments from Trump....The Canadian dollar was the top performer while the US dollar lagged...The ECB decision is up next on Thursday...إشارة الدولار/ ين (فيديو للمشتركين فقط)....Trading around the headlines was an adventure Monday but ultimately led to a....Expectations were low for Juncker's trip to Washington and initially fell....EUR/USD fell as low as 1...1661 afterwards but began to turn around after initial positive comments before....As the meeting extended a report said the leaders were close to a deal and....Juncker doesn't have the power to unilaterally make these deals but we....In any case, the threat of immediate tariffs is lower...Separately, CAD and MXN made strong gains on a letter Trump sent to Lopez-....Calendar Guidance - How Specific?....Looking ahead, the ECB decision is due at 1145 GMT (12:45 London), but it's....Instead, the focus will be on messaging in the statement and in the press....The euro might be higher if not for the looming risk of this meeting...Focus on any rewording of the calendar guidance...Draghi is in a tough spot as he tries to retain an upbeat stance on the economy....In the past he has been a masterful messenger, but the tweaking and....If he can navigate the choppy waters, the underlying bias may be toward euro..
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Intraday Market Thought: GBP Damaged, Stocks Pause
by Adam Button | Aug 8, 2018 14:32GBP selling turns to a rout on Bloomberg reports that PM Theresa May is....90...nbsp; The DOW30 short was stopped out, while the remaining index short re-....It's also the time of year when flows are especially important and that was....CAD hopes turn to Friday's Canada jobs report...Later Tuesday, the US finalized $16 billion in fresh tariffs against China...The main fundamental worry on everyone's mind is a continued escalation...Reports say Trump made a pitch to tech executives about the virtues of tariffs...That's a hint that he's determined to raise the stakes...On the topic of escalation, US financial and trade sanctions hit Iran Tuesday....Europe continues to try to find a way to keep the deal intact but companies are....A possible next shoe to drop could be some kind of escalation by Iran via....Local unrest continues to grow...Looking east, Japan is suddenly full of intrigue...Reuters reported Monday that BOJ officials had floated the idea of two....Data on Tuesday also showed the biggest jump in wages since 1997...That was mainly driven by bonuses and overtime quirks but the underlying....Focus turns to Wednesday's US 10-year note sale...It's the first sale under the latest, higher auction sizes and it comes with....Whether or not it sells above that psychological level is likely to drive.. -
Intraday Market Thought: No Safety in Gold
by Adam Button | Aug 14, 2018 15:15
Gold attempts regaining the $1200 level after yesterday's break below the....European indices are in the red while their US counterparts push higher...UK earnings came in within expectations while the unemployment rate dropped back....0% from 4...2%....Cryptocurrencies resumed their damage as Bitcoin fell 3%, while Ethereum,....The Premium short in FTSE100 was closed for 140-pt gain to compensate for the....A new Premium note was issued on indices with the adjusted view for USD and gold....Instead, it's the US dollar, yen and Swiss franc attracting inflows...Part of that is the better yield of the dollar since the Fed began hiking rates....There is some support for gold at the Feb 2017 low of $1180 and it's....As long as money continues to flow from EM with significant USD-denominated debt,....Emerging markets have stabilized in as the Turkish pushed back up to 6...40 per $1 USD from as low as 6...98 $1 USD...It remains unclear who is holding the potential losses and if Turkey can dig....EM trouble has briefly shifted the focus away from the trade war...That theme is sure to flare up again shortly as NAFTA negotiations chug along...Macro data resumes on Wednesday with UK CPI and US retail sales, US indus..
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Intraday Market Thought: 200 Billion Reasons for Worry
by Adam Button | Aug 31, 2018 12:30
The market took a surprisingly sanguine view to a report that Trump is eager to....The yen was the top performer while the New Zealand dollar lagged...USD/CNH remains in a descending trendline resistance with 6...90 becoming the next barrier, while USDX monthly candle suggesting a gravestone....nbsp; The FTSE Premium short was closed for 160 pts gain...Below is a detailed video on existing and future trades for Premium....A review of $200 billion of proposed 25% tariffs on virtually everything the US....That same day, Trump wants to announce them, with implementation a short time....The headlines sent the US dollar lower against the yen and weakened risk assets....00 from 111...20...The S&P 500 finished down 13 points...The market is either stuck in sleepy summer mode or believes this is yet-....The report cited six sources, which makes it almost certain that it's a....It's entirely unclear if that's coming...Unlike NAFTA, Trump's cabinet appears to be united in its....What was also notable was the asymmetry of the market reaction...As with other US-China flare ups, it hasn't been a classic flight-to-....The US dollar slid against the euro and made only modest gains against the....For Canada, in particular, a US-China trade war may prove to be an opportunity..
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Intraday Market Thought: USD Breaks Support
by Adam Button | Sep 20, 2018 11:39
2 days after Ashraf posted an-all clear video on the US dollar to subscribers, a....USDX breaks to 4-week lows below the 100-DMA for the 1st time since April...CAD drags USD below 1...29 and the Premium short in USDCAD has been closed with 140-pip gain...A detailed note has been sent to subscribers regarding what's ahead....GBP is the biggest outperformer on higher than expected retail sales, while....US jobless claims and existing home sales are next...و أخيرا تم حل مسألة الدولار (فيديو للمشتركين)....US economic data included a nearly 10% rebound in US housing starts after two....They were at a 1282K pace compared to 1238K expected...In the bigger picture, the market is signaling better global growth; or at....The optimistic signals have been undeniable despite worrisome US and....Could the broad USD decline be a usual reflection of the broad pick-up in....but let's revisit this assessment in November...as we near the December meeting...NAFTA negotiators didn't make any kind of breakthough and headlines about....The Australian and New Zealand dollars are also making solid gains...To underscore the better sentiment on growth, Japan's Nikkei 225 has risen..
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Intraday Market Thought: Markets Cheer Expected Elections Outcome
by Adam Button | Nov 7, 2018 18:54
Risk trades are higher after Democrats regained control of the House in a vote....Kiwi is the highest performer after a solid jobs reports ahead of the RBNZ....EURUSD is attempting to close the day above 1...1440 to make it above the Sep 24 trendline resistance...The DOW30 was stopped out and the EURUSD long was closed for 145 pip-gain...A special note was issued on EURUSD post-elections & pre-Fed...nbsp;....تمركز الصفقات بعد الانتخابات...There was no major surprise in the US midterms...Democrats won a dozen-seat majority in the House which is slightly less than....Republicans did better in the Senate, expanding their majority and winning a....Overall, Republicans did a bit better than expected but there were no....So what's behind the surge in indices? As we wrote before the vote,....Almost any result would have led to a sigh of relief to some extent...This means that further tax cuts are less likely in the US but it's also....The S&P 500 opened 21 points higher and is now up 42 pts...DOW30 is up 358 pts, above its 55-DMA for the 1st time since Oct 10...Looking ahead the RBNZ is largely expected to leave rates at 1...75%....The currency jumped after the unemployment rate dropped to 3...9% from 4...5% earlier today...That's the lowest in 10 years and could be a game changer for the central....The drop in unemployment came despite a 0...2 pp rise in participation...Wages also jumped 1...4% q/q compared to 0...8% expected...NZD/USD has rebounded nicely from a test of the 2015/16 lows in the past six....A shift from the RBNZ and continued USD selling could help to close that gap.
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Intraday Market Thought: Stops & Luck
by Ashraf Laidi | Nov 16, 2018 14:50
Getting stopped out: Is it a lack of skill or luck? On Wednesday, I was....2950 one hour before PM Theresa May unveiled her Brexit plan...Her speech and initial reaction triggered a rally to 1...3070...One day later, en-mass resignations in UK cabinet drove down cable to 1...2724...The chart below is one of the charts used to back my rationale...There's more below...Bad Experience....Wednesday's long was issued with a final target at 1...33 and stop at 1...2760...The stop was hit...Some accused me of taking a “gambling” trade as I issued the....Yet, the rationale I laid out for the trade was based on several charts and....Some say "why issue a stop at 1...2760 when you were so sure it would reach as high as 1...33”....The answer; I was focused on 1...2760 as a key support, therefore I based my reward-risk relationship on that,....33 target...Yes, I still see cable at 1...33, and 1...35 and eventually 1...45 most likely before March...ldquo;But Ashraf, that's a 13% rally...What's your downside?” Well, feel free to enter the Premium charts....By the way, I did issue a new long in GBPUSD yesterday at 1...2800 so we're in good shape...Actually, several clients tell me they lowered the stop, others did not even....Better Experience....But there are examples of more “lucky stories”....Our short USDJPY trade from late last month had a stop at 114...25...The pair tested 113...90-114...20 earlier this month -- while I refused to raise the stop—before tumbling....70s...Bottom Line....If you are disciplined about entering with stops and final targets, make sure....You can even work backwards if you have to (set your pips target from the....The other key matter: Feel free to move stops by 20 or 30 pips as FX is....5 trillion a day FX market does not care where your stop is, neither do many of....Latest Premium charts analysis on GBPUSD.
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Intraday Market Thought: Trump Postures ahead of Xi Meeting
by Adam Button | Nov 26, 2018 22:14
Risk trades rallied Monday but the tone may quickly shift with Trump talking....The US dollar led the way while the yen lagged...CFTC positioning data showed fresh bets against the euro...Draghi stuck to the script, Trump & Xi will be watched next, followed by....US auto giant GM announced the shutdown of 4 factories and layoff of 14K workers....The Premium LONG in the DAX was closed for 300 pts gain, with notes....More details found in today's Premium video...USD/JPY rose by more than half a yen and the Nasdaq climbed 2% Monday in an....Futures, however, slipped after the close when Trump said he expected to hit....He said it was highly unlikely the rise to 25% tariffs on Jan 1 would be delayed....The commodity currencies slid after the comments were published...The question is whether the comments were posturing or reality...Trump meets with Xi on Friday in Buenos Aires and he undoubtedly wants the....At the same time, does it make sense to believe Trump would hit businesses and....At the same time, the market didn't believe Trump would ever implement....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....This week's report was delayed because of the US holiday...EUR -47K vs -37K prior...GBP -43K vs -47K prior...JPY -100K vs -102K prior...CHF -20K vs -19K prior...CAD -6K vs -3K prior...AUD -59K vs -58K prior...NZD -19K vs -22K prior....The moves were small but there is fresh interest in selling the euro as the....On Monday, Draghi conceded the numbers have been disappointing since September..
