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Results: 871 to 880 of 1,000
Results: 871 to 880 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: Stops & Luck
by Ashraf Laidi | Nov 16, 2018 14:50
Getting stopped out: Is it a lack of skill or luck? On Wednesday, I was....2950 one hour before PM Theresa May unveiled her Brexit plan...Her speech and initial reaction triggered a rally to 1...3070...One day later, en-mass resignations in UK cabinet drove down cable to 1...2724...The chart below is one of the charts used to back my rationale...There's more below...Bad Experience....Wednesday's long was issued with a final target at 1...33 and stop at 1...2760...The stop was hit...Some accused me of taking a “gambling” trade as I issued the....Yet, the rationale I laid out for the trade was based on several charts and....Some say "why issue a stop at 1...2760 when you were so sure it would reach as high as 1...33”....The answer; I was focused on 1...2760 as a key support, therefore I based my reward-risk relationship on that,....33 target...Yes, I still see cable at 1...33, and 1...35 and eventually 1...45 most likely before March...ldquo;But Ashraf, that's a 13% rally...What's your downside?” Well, feel free to enter the Premium charts....By the way, I did issue a new long in GBPUSD yesterday at 1...2800 so we're in good shape...Actually, several clients tell me they lowered the stop, others did not even....Better Experience....But there are examples of more “lucky stories”....Our short USDJPY trade from late last month had a stop at 114...25...The pair tested 113...90-114...20 earlier this month -- while I refused to raise the stop—before tumbling....70s...Bottom Line....If you are disciplined about entering with stops and final targets, make sure....You can even work backwards if you have to (set your pips target from the....The other key matter: Feel free to move stops by 20 or 30 pips as FX is....5 trillion a day FX market does not care where your stop is, neither do many of....Latest Premium charts analysis on GBPUSD.
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Intraday Market Thought: Trump Postures ahead of Xi Meeting
by Adam Button | Nov 26, 2018 22:14
Risk trades rallied Monday but the tone may quickly shift with Trump talking....The US dollar led the way while the yen lagged...CFTC positioning data showed fresh bets against the euro...Draghi stuck to the script, Trump & Xi will be watched next, followed by....US auto giant GM announced the shutdown of 4 factories and layoff of 14K workers....The Premium LONG in the DAX was closed for 300 pts gain, with notes....More details found in today's Premium video...USD/JPY rose by more than half a yen and the Nasdaq climbed 2% Monday in an....Futures, however, slipped after the close when Trump said he expected to hit....He said it was highly unlikely the rise to 25% tariffs on Jan 1 would be delayed....The commodity currencies slid after the comments were published...The question is whether the comments were posturing or reality...Trump meets with Xi on Friday in Buenos Aires and he undoubtedly wants the....At the same time, does it make sense to believe Trump would hit businesses and....At the same time, the market didn't believe Trump would ever implement....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....This week's report was delayed because of the US holiday...EUR -47K vs -37K prior...GBP -43K vs -47K prior...JPY -100K vs -102K prior...CHF -20K vs -19K prior...CAD -6K vs -3K prior...AUD -59K vs -58K prior...NZD -19K vs -22K prior....The moves were small but there is fresh interest in selling the euro as the....On Monday, Draghi conceded the numbers have been disappointing since September..
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Intraday Market Thought: Fed Stands Ground, Bears too
by Adam Button | Dec 20, 2018 14:15
The FOMC hiked rates for the fourth time this year in a move that was mostly....The downward impact on equity indices was greater than the upward impact on....Now USD is lower across the board and indices off the Asia lows...Although the Fed signalled 2 hikes instead of the expected 3, Eurodollar....The Dec Philly Fed index dropped to a 28-month low...The Premium long in gold finally hit its final target at 1253, while the DOW30....Both of the USDJPY and EURUSD Premium trades are deepening in the green...Equally important was the message about what's coming next...On that front, the Fed retained more of a hawkish bias than the market would....The statement said 'some' further hiking would be needed, a hint....They also highlighted risks...QT vs Rate Hikes....In his press conference Powell noted rising 'cross currents' and said....But why did indices accelerated their selloff? The main reason was Powell'....The Treasury yield curve flattened with 2s10s now just 10 basis points from....Gold retreated towards 1242 before bouncing back to a 5-month high of 1261...Yields resume their downfall to a hit an 8-month low of 2...74%, in a clear manifestation of bearish growth projections from bond traders...nbsp;....Looking ahead, the market will turn its attention to global growth and trade...The question is how strong growth will be in 2019 with a particular emphasis on....Some disappointment came early Thursday in the New Zealand Q3 GDP report...Growth was just 0...3% in the quarter compared to 0...6% expected...That sent the kiwi to a three-week low.
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Intraday Market Thought: Yen Index far from Overbought
by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 20, 2018 18:59So much talk about the USD index, but what about the JPY index from the Bank....Here's a look at JPY TWI vs JPY positioning...Full analysis. -
Intraday Market Thought: See you at NY Traders' Expo
by Ashraf Laidi | Jan 30, 2019 21:04
I'm delighted to inform you that I'll be a featured speaker at this year&....This is one of the longest running trading expos in the planet, in which I....I encourage you to reserve a free seat, and join me at the ultimate educational....Full Program.
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Hot-Chart: Forex Brokers' Performance
by Ashraf Laidi | Feb 12, 2019 11:40
Share price performance of all publicly traded Forex firms is clearly down since....Today, Plus500, whose share price growth led the way relative to the five other....To what extent will regulatory dynamics and crypto trends raise questions for....Going forward, let's keep an eye on advertising deals (especially football)..
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Intraday Market Thought: Delay is the Word of the Day
by Adam Button | Feb 25, 2019 12:35
Delays everywhere and markets like it...The US will delay its planned March 1st tariffs on China and Theresa May could....Currencies are in a classic risk-on mode, with the Kiwi and Aussie as the top....All eyes turn to Fed chair Powell's testimony on Tuesday, which will shed....Delaying US-China Trade Talks....US-China trade talks were extended through the weekend and the verdict from....rdquo;....Risk trades got a boost from the announcement, which came just after the....Combined with the lackluster response in stock markets after upbeat trade....If a deal isn't fully priced in already, it will be soon...The risks may then shift to the euro and a tariff on auto imports...Trump quickly pivoted to China after he finished up on NAFTA and may now turn....Delaying Brexit?....A different kind of delay looms for Theresa May...The Telegraph reports that she's considering a two-month delay as she....The delay would be a backup if a newly-planned 'meaningful vote' on....All EU nations would have a veto on a delay and a separate report says the EU....The FX trade isn't necessarily clear in any of the floated scenarios...On the face of it, pushing the meaningful vote to March 12 skirts....Cable has been choppy in early trading without a strong trend.
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Intraday Market Thought: Macro-Market Divergence: Trade Deficit
by Adam Button | Feb 28, 2019 13:40
Trump abruptly cut the peace summit with North Korea without a deal...Ray Dalio, the hedge fund giant said odds of US recession before the next US....The Swiss franc is the best performer, bringing our CHF Premium deeper into the....China's February PMI slumped further to reach 49...2, highlighting the divergence between the economy and financial markets...US Q4 GDP finallly was released, coming at 2...6% (vs exp 2...2%) from 3...4% in Q3...nbsp; Yesterday, we shed light on the slwdown in US housing...Today we take a look at the swelling US trade deficit...nbsp;....كيفية مواجهة الذروة و التصحيح (فيديو للمشتركين)....One of the core elements of Trump's political brand is closing the trade....Yet on Wednesday the US trade deficit sprang to $79...5B compared to $73...9B expected...That will be a further drag on Q4 and along with other soft recent data it....Yet the key reason the dollar has remained so solid is that growth in the....That's all the reason that the deficit keeps rising...The risk shifts what kind of drastic measures will be taken by the White....It's a potential viscous circle that would intensify if Trump were to win....In terms of market moves, yields are a driver once again...US 10-year yields rose 4...6 bps to 2...68%....Yields have been chopping near 2...60% for weeks but may have found a bottom and that may lead to a bounce,....On that front, Lighthizer was hawkish in his comments to Congress Wednesday but....The US gets a lift from higher than expected US Q4 GDP, but with the figure..
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Intraday Market Thought: ECB & TLTRO Explainer
by Adam Button | Mar 7, 2019 12:23The ECB decision is up next and all eyes are on the downward revisions to growth....The Bank of Canada continued its retreat from higher rates in a surprise change....NZD is the day's strongest performer, closely followed by AUD, while GBP is....إستغلال الفرص داخل النطاقات (فيديو للمشتركين)....We warned the BOC might drop the explicit guidance toward higher rates in....USD/CAD jumped to 1...3450 from 1...3380 on the headlines...The pair was also boosted by a dismal Canadian trade balance report that....In the day ahead, the BOC's Patterson will further clarify the outlook but the....The US trade picture also darkened further as the December trade deficit....The numbers are undoubtedly skewed by tariffs but it increasingly looks like....That artificially raised activity and the months ahead could continue to see a....The ECB announcement is due momentarily (12:45 GMT), followed by Draghi's....Yesterday's leak suggested sharp reductions in forecasts for GDP and....The new numbers will set the table for another round of TLTROs but those may....Draghi, however, could soon be facing questions about what tools the ECB is....A removal of the hiking bias is also overdue...Difference between Refinancing Operations and Quantitative Easing....The ECB's refinancing operations, known as Targeted Long-Term Refinancing....Unlike the quantitative easing program (which ended last year), these operations....QE may have had a rapid downward effect on yields and rates but did not....nbsp; In other words, the refinancing operations require borrowers (banks) to....Banks with decent net lending figures will be able to borrow funds from the....40%, enabling them to use the proceeds to lend out at higher rates. -
Intraday Market Thought: What’s Next after May’s Deal Rejected?
by Adam Button | Mar 12, 2019 21:31
Last-minute negotiations failed to convince parliament to support Theresa....The New Zealand dollar was the top performer while the pound lagged...US CPI also missed estimates in another inflation miss...Reversal or Deferral are the remaining choices...The Premium trade on GBP remains open and in the green, so is the EURUSD trade...The charts below highlight the peak in GBP volatility, which is stabilizing for....Getting a deal through parliament was a longshot as the week got underway but....Those hopes were dashed by a statement from UK Attorney General Cox who said....That headline triggered a drop to 1...3005 from 1...3160 and it was used by the DUP and ERG as justification for voting against the....The result was a 242-391 defeat for May...That's an improvement from 202-432 in January but still needs to switch....It's tough to envision the EU offering much more of a sweetener so May....The pound initially bounced after the vote...That was partly due to some progress in the numbers but more so due to May....She said the no-deal vote will be a free one for her party but it will surely be....The market is now pricing in an extension and reports suggest the....That votes in the days ahead should ease some of the nerves in GBP and provide a....Beyond that, the tail risk is that the EU makes an extension difficult by....An extension can only be granted by a unanimous vote of all 27 EU members so....While Brexit headlines dominated Tuesday, there were some other notable moves...US CPI registered +1...5% y/y in February compared to 1...6% expected...The FX reaction was minimal but US 10- year yields fell below 2...60% to the worst levels since Jan 4...A fall below the Jan low of 2...54% would pressure USD/JPY.
