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Results: 941 to 950 of 1,000
Results: 941 to 950 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: Stocks Rocked, Yen Wins
by Adam Button | Jul 8, 2015 23:46
The wall of worries finally sent stocks crumbling on Wednesday...The yen was the main beneficiary in FX while the pound was the laggard...China CPI is up next with all eyes on the short-selling ban...The latest deterioration in Canada data sent the Premium long in EURCAD to +130....nbsp; A new CAD pair has been added to today's Premium for the first time....The bounce in markets late Tuesday was quickly unwound...Greece remains in a difficult position and progress is slow but global growth....Chinese stocks fell 5...9% yesterday and commodities are under growing pressure...Confidence was further undermined by a 3 hour outage in the NYSE and the S&P....7% to close below its 200-day moving average for the first time since October...The Fed Minutes struck a dovish tone with most meeting participants still....The latest developments in China and Greece will no-doubt test their resolve....A final note on today's trading is the outperformance of the euro despite....It underscores the euro's role as a carry funding currency (like the yen)....That's a dynamic that's still in its infancy but could last for years...Later, the focus will continue to be on China where policymakers banned short-....The government and PBOC are increasingly likely to act, especially if a relief....The CPI report due at 0130 GMT is expected to rise 1...3%, which leaves officials with plenty of room to act.
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Intraday Market Thought: Gold Erases 50% of 12-year Cycle
by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 20, 2015 18:56
Gold's tumble to a 5-year low today is the latest manifestation of the....The reasons are not new: The recent 20% decline in oil will turn an already low-....The Fed's signalling of higher interest rates as early as this year....Chinese investors are busy dealing with massive losses in stocks, unable to....Technically, today's gold low coincided with $1,086, which is the 50%....Gold's 12-year run was based on a recovering world economy, brought about....Repeating Boom-bust Gold-Stocks Cycle....Comparing gold to equities, the gold/SP500 ratio has fallen 65% from its 2011....So far the pattern appears similar to the boom-bust cycle in the Gold/Stocks....Eventually, gold's damage from the late 1980s into the 1990s sent the gold/....If the $1,080 gives way to technical selling, then prolonged downside calls....nbsp;But can the Fed still raise rates if returning disinflation becomes..
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Intraday Market Thought: CAD Net Shorts Break Trendline
by Ashraf Laidi | Aug 9, 2015 22:56
CAD net shorts vs USD have risen to their highest since March 2014, breaking....Although net longs US crude oil saw their first increase in 5 weeks, CAD....This week's CAD sentiment figures will be closely watched following Friday&....Canada: Jobs vs growth....Canada's July jobs report narrowly escaped 2nd consecutive monthly....6K rise in employment, underlying the resilience of the labour market despite....But there's more inside the numbers...The dichotomy between services and manufacturing industries continues with....Although natural resources sectors lost only net 2k jobs, four times that amount....The bulk of service-sector employment occurred in professional jobs, while....Canada's technical recession has become the central national topic ahead....Whether it is GDP that is leading jobs or the inverse remains to be seen...Based on our anticipation for US crude to fall below $40, the Bank of Canada....The falling loonie may help damage control in exports, but the looming end..
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Intraday Market Thought: The Great Commodity Divide
by Adam Button | Jan 14, 2016 23:39
The global economy has been divided along emerging and developed market....Now there is a line and offers a clearer way to view what's underway in 2016...There are currently 5 trades open in the Premium Insights, 3 of which are GBP....More equity indices trades will be included next week, tactically leading....The inclination is to blame the United States, the Eurozone or China for any....Alternatively, 'emerging markets' often get the blame...The market driver at the moment is none of them, nor is it Japan...It's commodities...The four largest economies are facing various challenges and slowing growth....The divide that matters in the global economy right now is 'commodity....Any single commodity exporter is a small factor in the global economy...The largest is Brazil and its economy is just a quarter the size of China...Add in fellow exporters like Canada, Australia, Mexico, Indonesia and Saudi....Include other exporters in Africa, the Middle East and Latin America and they....The commodity crash is hitting all those countries hard along with the multitude....The sensitivity is high at the moment...The Canadian dollar was down for a record tenth consecutive day on Thursday...Even in a situation like an oil rout and a central bank that could surprise with....On Thursday sentiment staged a recovery and in a rare divergence, the Australian....The flipside of the commodity crash is that the commodity consuming countries....At the moment, the rapid change is causing dislocations but as it unfolds..
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Intraday Market Thought: Do You Believe in Yellen?
by Adam Button | Feb 11, 2016 0:11
Market reactions depend less on the hawkish/dovish inclinations of central....The yen was the top performer as USD/JPY fell to 113...10; the Canadian dollar lagged...Expect quiet trading in Asia with China and Japan both on holiday...A new Premium trade has been issued ahead of Friday's RBA testimony and....Currently sitting on 240 pip gain on the Premium trade issued Monday, which may....SMS/email will be sent to subscribers if/when closed...Stay tuned...There is no doubt that the past six months have been a damaging time for....A virtually unanimous chorus of monetary policy leaders proclaimed a brighter....It culminated in the Federal Reserve hiking rates and hinting at four more....The Fed didn't see trouble coming and its inability to identify problems....A doctor can't cure a patient if he can't diagnose the problem...Even worse if he doesn't recognize a problem at all...The first day of Yellen's two-day Congressional testimony showed a....The dollar first rallied when she was less dovish than market watchers....That's the normal reaction...But later the dollar dropped sharply as Yellen expressed a dogmatic attachment....The shift in market psychology makes sense...Fed funds futures are no longer pricing in Fed rate hikes in 2016...Before any central bank hikes, it will need to re-establish market confidence...The inability of officials to get a firm handle on the commodity crisis is what&....It's also adding currency volatility and shaking out US dollar longs...Until something changes, the trade remains the same.
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Intraday Market Thought: Euro Bull-Bear Division
by Ashraf Laidi | Feb 15, 2016 23:59
Mario Draghi had no choice but to signal the willingness for the ECB “....Draghi's dovish spin was inevitable due to two reasons: Shares of Eurozone....So Draghi had to give the equivalent of a dovish overture to the markets and....Fed Chair Yellen also took a dovish stance at last week's Congressional....nbsp;....So where does this leave us in the policy divergence paradigm of “Fed....Euro bulls/USD bears claim are backed by the notion that the single currency is....They add that FX traders have not completely priced the rising market....On the other hand, euro pessimists/USD bulls counter that further negative....And even if the Fed ends up doing nothing, further ECB action on QE and/or....Both camps make sense...This week's release of the minutes from the January 26-27 FOMC and of the....In our Premium Insights, a new EURUSD trade has been issued, backed by....To help subscribers better grasp the rationale of our conclusion, we asked....The full trade is here...nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: Britain Leaves, Pound Drops, Cameron Quits
by Ashraf Laidi | Jun 24, 2016 9:34
The UK voted to exit the European Union by 52%-28% or a difference of 1,269,501....PM Cameron announced his resignation, which will likely materialize in October,....nbsp;Sterling fell 10% to its lowest level since September 1985, the FTSE....5%....S&P was the first credit agency to warn of a possible downgrade of the UK&....Gold finally broke out of its 5-year trendline resistance to hit a new 2-year....Now that the UK's trade agreements with the rest of the world under the EU....With regards to the myth that Britain could easily strike deals by World Trade....And to address that common misconceptio; Europe does not need Britain more than....45% of British exports go to the EU while only 6% of EU goods go to Britain...Guess who needs whom? ....Finally, do you think non-EU nations such as China, Korea or Brazil would....Carry on with the wrong facts at your own risk.
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Intraday Market Thought: Will the RBA Cut?
by Ashraf Laidi | Aug 1, 2016 22:06
Tonight's RBA decision (00:30 Eastern Time, 05:30 British Summer Time)....50%, whereas 80% of the 25 economists/strategists polled by Bloomberg expect....Divergences between economists and the market are not new...Aussie macro figures have been mixed as of late, but the more important CPI....There are two main reasons for an RBA rate cut: 1) Preventing excessive AUD....Thus, an RBA hold on rates would flash the green light for the AUD to rally....0% y/y from 1...3% y/y to reach its lowest level on record...nbsp; Aussie unemployment rate is near a 3-year low of 5...8% but new job creation has fallen to under 8K, below the 3-month moving....The minutes of last month's RBA meeting sounded a dovish note on....But the relative stabilisation Chinese macro data as well as eroding chances of....AUD is up 4% on a trade-weighted index from its May lows, but is only down 3%....Earlier today, I issued a tactical AUD Premium trade to hedge against an....Taking into consideration the evolving inter-market landscape, it is important....In addition to the trade and charts, trades and charts ahead of the week'..
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Intraday Market Thought: Central Banking in a Black Hole
by Adam Button | Aug 25, 2016 23:18
At some point on Friday, the 'Summer Doldrums' will come to an end as....The waiting game was in fashion Thursday as markets traded in tight ranges and....Japanese CPI is due up ahead of Jackson Hole...There are 9 Premium trades currently in progress, 2 metals, 2 indices and 5 in....In the small picture, the market moves will centre around signals from Yellen....The market is pricing in a 32% chance of a move in Sept and 57% chance in....That looks high to us but the durable goods report on Thursday added some....In it, the key non-defense ex-air orders metric rose 1...6% compared to the 0...2% consensus...In the big picture, the noose is tightening around the Fed...On Wednesday it was former Fed governor Warsh ripping into the Fed for a lack of....Thursday it was Hilsenrath shedding light on the failures of the Fed and....The criticism is seeming coming from all corners and Yellen is surely feeling....It's not necessarily hawkish pressure either but frustration at the....That's the kind of thing that would make a Fed leader shy about sending....It's also likely to make the Fed deathly afraid of making a misstep...So while Yellen's words at Jackson Hole will be important, we're....A fearful Fed is one that will freeze...At the same time, we are keenly watching the mounting criticism and how it....That doesn't have any near term consequences but it has the power to....Ultimately, that probably means more dovish policies...Nowhere is that clearer than Japan where increasingly hopeless programs are....At 2330 GMT we get another look at the results with the July CPI report...The consensus estimate is that prices fell 0...4% y/y.
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Intraday Market Thought: Growth & Politics: Inseparable?
by Adam Button | Jan 3, 2017 23:54
The line in time between hope becoming reality is a blurry one but it's....The Australian dollar was the top performer in the first real trading day....Chinese sentiment data is due later as we continue to keep a close eye on....The big market moves since the US election are undoubtedly based on some....At some point, that hope will need to be replaced by actions and results...Early returns are good...Economic data has been strong and that continued Tuesday with US Nov....9% compared to the +0...5% consensus...The ISM manufacturing index also rose to 54...7 compared to 53...6 expected in another sign of a pickup...Hope itself can be self-sustaining to a point...It encourages optimism, confidence and risk taking; three things that are the....One of the quickest ways to undo that progress is political change doesn&....That could be because Congress and the White House isn't as united as they....Bets on a dysfunctional US political system for the past 10 years have been....Today was the first day of the new Congress and the first priority in the....That's a bizarre priority and the backlash went all the way to the top as....The changes were scrapped...In a sense, that's heartening but it's also a sign that Trump and....A big risk in the next four years is that the Republican party isn't as....Or maybe – as is usually the case – the shock that hits markets....That's why we're watching China so closely...The 50 year bond was halted limit down briefly yesterday and, as Ashraf....Up next we will watch the Westpac consumer sentiment data for China at....The prior reading was 114...9.
