Searched for:
Results: 961 to 970 of 1,000
Results: 961 to 970 of 1,000
-
Intraday Market Thought: Big Turn, Not Just NFP
by Adam Button | Nov 2, 2018 10:01
A new month flipped a switch in the foreign exchange market with the dollar....The trio of AUD, NZD and GBP each soared around 2% to wipe out the entire month....Metals continue to dominate energy with silver at the lead, rescuing the 14...20 right-shoulder support...nbsp; The volatility will continue with non-farm payrolls Friday but there's....The DAX short hit the stop, while the EURUSD long deepens in the money...A CHF trade was issued yesterday...Commanding Technical Levels....The 0...9% selloff in USDX was the 5th largest daily drop in percentage terms over ....November suggests that flows were playing a big part in the late-October....0 level, while EURUSD and GBPUSD respected the August lows...Ashraf bought the euro on Wednesday ahead of the August low of 1...1320 and that level held in a big way as EUR/USD reversed and rose more than 100....It proved that sometimes the simplest techs are the best...Sterling moves were even more dramatic as they were fueled by a report of a....The BOE forecasts also showed a slightly higher path for rates...In response, GBP/USD soared to 1...3020 after trading as low as 1...2700 on Wednesday...The Australian and New Zealand dollars also got a big boost from an Aussie....AUD/USD climbed to 0...7205 from 0...7075 in a slow, steady climb...nbsp; It's just one report but it highlights that the trade war may play....We listen to the talking heads and expert economists daily but no one has....Instead everyone is relying on models and assumptions about what 'should&....We're keeping an open mind about what will happen and will be guided by....Thursday's Aussie figures may suggest an argument that China has....Watch the Trade Figues....That trade theme is why we'll be watching Friday's US and Canadian....The ISM manufacturing report was littered with anecdotal reports about....Some suggested near-term problems while others are working through inventories....Don't rule out a miss on the $53...6 billion consensus estimate for the US deficit...At the same time, wage data is undoubtedly critical to the market and....The consensus for average hourly earnings is +3...1%, a rise from 2...8%....Hurricane skews could impact and anything above 3...2% would surely be a market mover and possibly a lasting one.
-
Intraday Market Thought: Oil Upends Inflation Outlook
by Adam Button | Nov 21, 2018 10:34
That thing about indices is found below...Eyes are shifting back to central bankers as the rout in oil and equity....The US dollar was the top performer Tuesday while the Australian dollar....Wednesday's US durable goods report will be a welcome dose of hard data...A new Index Premium long was entered in the final hours of NY trade...The Premium video is found here below with OPEN ACCESS to everyone this time...nbsp;....A further 7% fall in oil prices brings the decline to 31% since October and....The U-turn in oil may prove to be more important than the rout in equities when....The drop will put negative pressure on headline inflation in the months ahead....Even though most central bankers watch core inflation, the drop in headline....So far that paradigm hasn't entered into the central bank discourse aside....A broader shift may still be premature but it's worth pondering...The two central banks to watch are the BOC and Fed...In comments this week top officials (Wilkins and Williams) gave no indication....For the BOC, the blackout now looms for the December 5 meeting...The odds of a hike there have dwindled to just 10% and the BOC has already....Something about US Indices....Ashraf emailed me last night to remind me that the Dow Jones Industrials index....Both indices have shown back-to-back declines of 2% or more in mid October,....What about declines of 1% or more? The last time the Dow30 fell by more than 1%....Since then, every time the index had back-to-back declines of 1% or more went....5% or 2...0%....Yesterday, the Dow30 fell 2...20% (-551 pts) and on Tuesday it fell 1...56% (-396 pts)....If the pattern holds, then this could mean a rally of 1...5% or 2...0% today or Friday is highly plausible, i...e...DOW30 could close up more than 350 pts to near 24800s...Bear in mind US markets will be closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving and shall....nbsp;....With the US holiday looming, the Fed schedule is quiet for the remainder of....The next Fed decision is Dec 19 and hike odds are at 71% from 83% a month ago...In the interim, expect an escalating focus on economic data...This week's home builder sentiment report was the first sign of a sudden....On Wednesday, the October durable goods report is due out...It's another forward-looking indicator but it has a spotty record as....Capital goods orders non-defense ex-air are forecast to rise 0...2%..
-
Intraday Market Thought: Oil Adds to Fed Intrigue
by Adam Button | Dec 19, 2018 13:00
The collapse in oil prices resumed on Tuesday with prices now down 40% since....The New Zealand dollar was the top performer while the Canadian dollar....The Fed decision looms...A new Premium trade ahead of the Fed decision was issued before the close of....The image below is the statement from the September rate hike, noting possible....A detailed video on pre & post-Fed trades has been posted for Premium....We highlighted the fall below $50 in WTI as a key technical support breakdown,....05...It appears to be headed in that direction in a hurry with prices down $4....91 as global growth fears mount...The market is voting that OPEC hasn't done enough and US inventories....Risk trades in the currency market made some minor headway Tuesday but there was....The S&P 500 had been comfortably higher but finished flat...After the close, FedEx cut its profit forecast on slower global growth and....They pointed to soft business outside of the US and weakness in Europe in....The drop in oil is an added wrinkle for the Fed and may help to give them cover....With Wednesday's decision looming the odds of a hike are down to just 64%....Through 2019, there's only a 35% chance of another hike...What the vanilla pricing doesn't show is tail risk...The market is understandably jittery right now and the modest pricing for Fed....At the same time, the Fed is limited in exactly how it can send signals...There will be no line in the statement saying 'we're going to pause'....The drop in oil is certainly deflationary and the Fed could argue....This and trade worries could tilt the balance of risks to the negative side...A number of dissents in favor of no hike would also send a dovish message, as....If the decides to immediately pause, it's not entirely clear that risk....If the Fed isn't careful about the wording, the message could be....Keep a close watch on gold...It's testing the December high and a surprise pause or dovish message would....There is also a strong seasonal tailwind early in the year.
-
Intraday Market Thought: Time for the Pre-Santa Selloff
by Adam Button | Dec 3, 2019 12:55
Equity indices extend Monday's selloff after pres Trump widened his....AUD is the strongest of the day after the RBA left rates unchanged and headed....GBP hit $1...30, now up 1...9% on the year as the 2nd best performing currency behind CAD, which is....4% vs USD...USDJPY extended its downfall, after failing a major quadruple confluence...more below)....CFTC positioning highlights the large net-negative position in NZD...A 2nd Premium trade has been issued earlier today after 2 key indicators....فيديو المشتركين و التفسير وراء آخر الصفقات...The RBA retained a dovish bias in its statement but took out any urgency in....75%....Two parts of the statement helped to lift the Australian dollar...The first was a nod to falling risks in the global economy due to an improvement....That's a variable factor and could change in a big way by the time of the....The other notable change was the addition to the final paragraph of a nod....That's a hint that policymakers would rather be on the sidelines and may....AUD/USD rose a quarter cent after the decision but the bigger move in FX came....That came after a surprisingly soft ISM manufacturing index at 48...1 compared to 49...2 expected...Another High Profile Failure....Ashraf pointed out to USDJPY's recurring failure at 110...The pair dropped back below its 200-DMA, eyeing 108...40 after another high profile failed attempt to break/reach 110, coinciding....VIX jumps above its 100 and 200 DMAs after posting yesterday its biggest....SPX is at risk of breaking the next crucial support of 3075/76...Here is a chart below that Ashraf posted yesterday after that manuf ISM miss...Trump took to twitter to blame the Fed and a strong dollar but manufacturing....Lately there have been signs of an upturn or at least stabilization but....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR -61K vs -63K prior...GBP -37K vs -32K prior...JPY -40K vs -35K prior...CHF -21K vs -16K prior...CAD +20K vs +29K prior...AUD -45K vs -47K prior...NZD -36K vs -35K prior....The data was delayed because of the US holiday and the surprise is the....The turn in the kiwi continued on Monday and even with the round of risk....That should have the shorts sweating.
-
Intraday Market Thought: Powell, Lagarde, Elections & Trump
by Adam Button | Dec 12, 2019 12:00
Powell kicked off another round of US dollar weakness ahead of what should be....Risks include the ECB decision, UK election and US-China tariffs (more on....The Australian dollar broke a year-long trendline Wednesday, but keep an eye on....After having closed GBP trades at a gain 2 days ago, a new round of Premium....فيديو المشتركين إدارة مخاطر الإسترليني حول الانتخابات...The most-notable change in the FOMC statement was the addition of a line....To emphasize the point, the Fed removed a dovish nod to 'uncertainties'....But it was a comment from Powell in the press conference that sparked a slump in....He repeated a line we highlighted after the October FOMC – that it would....He emphasized that was his personal opinion and not the FOMC's but for....The initial thinking in October was that it could have been a slip of the tongue....The commodity currencies made the largest moves on the comments in part....Notably, AUD/USD rose above a downtrend that began almost exactly a year ago at....7400 and was previously tested (and held) four times...A break of the 200-dma at 0...6911 and the October high of 0...6933 would confirm the end of the long slide...The first event of the day ahead is the ECB meeting...Changes in policy are almost out of the question but this is Lagarde's first....Most analysts expect her to be a dove, but she may position herself as someone....It could be argued Lagarde will not be in a hurry to ease as the Fed removes....The main event of the day comes late as UK exit polls and election results come....The first exit polls are due at 2200 GMT and moves in the pound will be....Final polls show Conservatives with 5-12 point leads with the median closer to....Whatever the result, expect the trend to have multi-day staying power at the....Finally, there are reports that Trump plans to meet with top advisors....The decision may leak immediately, or he could announce it himself...A delay on the Dec 15 deadline is expected at the very least but nothing....If he announces that the tariffs will go into effect, it will crush risk assets.
-
Intraday Market Thought: Soros' Reflexivity gone too far
by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 4, 2015 20:21
Evidence of Soros' Theory of Reflexivity remaining prevalent in....Simply put, the euro soared 4% due to misplaced and unfulfilled market....The crowding out of euro-short algos was pivotal in the magnitude of the....But questioning the intensity of euro shorts deserves more time and attention....Question your Expectations, not the Central Bank Decision....Many who were “angry” at the Fed's decision to not raise rates....I will not go into detail about how the ECB gave no reason to expect QE....That was the work of one or two major bank economist's forecasts, who were....My colleague Adam Button and I made it clear in several Intraday Market....Markets went too far with embracing the notion of “policy divergence”....Once corrected by the ECB, the result was massive...At the end of day, anyone who landed on planet euro and saw the spike in the....Not at all...It was all expectations' fault...As George Soros postulated in his version of Reflexivity Theory into....Once the basis of those expectations is altered (ECB's policy actions), the....Friday's Draghi Speech not so different from Thursday's....Some say expectations were fed by the central bankers themselves...Not at all (again)....Today's Draghi speech in NY appears to be the main catalyst behind the 2%....The main reason to the rally is attributed to Draghi's statement....It may not matter that Draghi made a similar statement at yesterday's....e...more measures would/could be implemented if the need arose...One day seems to be too late for traders who lost money, but not too late to....nbsp;....A similar situation occurred on September 24, when Fed chair Yellen made....Markets bottomed three sessions later...Undoubtedly, Draghi's power of words continues to hold sway...But since pulling the QE trigger in March, the timing of the words becomes....This is no longer September 2012, when “we'll do what it takes”....One other Small Detail....One overlooked item from Thursday's press conference, which Draghi did not....This implies that, further measures prior to end of Q1 2016 are highly....Not to forget--the ECB's QE has had positive results, according to ECB....6% lows despite prolonged oil declines, improved growth and rising M3)....Thus, any rise in QE size before April is out of the question...Another 10-bp rate cut could may not be considered before June...nbsp; More evidence that EURUSD parity is far from reality.
-
Article: China’s crashing imports assure more CNY depreciation
by Ashraf Laidi | Feb 9, 2015 17:09
The 19% y/y slump in China's trade was the biggest decline since May 2009....nbsp; The plunge in imports was the primary driver behind the new record....3%, posting their first decline in 10 months...Disappointing China figures ahead of G20 meetings are far from rare, but the....Cant' blame it on the goat....Chinese data divergences in January and February are usually dismissed as being....nbsp; But this year's New Year holiday (Year of the Goat) isn't....And the recent consistency of the decline in Chinese imports–not....nbsp; Later this month, the HK trade figures will reveal whether China's....Further CNY weakness is inevitable....Further yuan weakness is the only solution for stabilizing the prolonged....It is no longer the case that US lawmakers have the political capital and....The IMF views China's currency to be more appropriately valued, while US....The case for further CNY weakness ahead is not only highlighted by the glaring....The ongoing divergence between the PBOC's USDCNY reference rate and....Most likely the former option will prevail as Beijing adopts the free....Tonight's China CPI & PPI support CNY weakness ahead of G20....Tuesday's release of January inflation figures from China are....1% y/y from December's 1...5% y/y, which would be the lowest level since the 0...6% attained in November 2009...January PPI, already down 3...3% in December, is seen falling 3...3%– the 34th consecutive monthly contraction–longer than anything....The figures will be another signal from Beijing to ease monetary policy via..
-
Intraday Market Thought: Third Avenue Blockade, Beijing FX Coup
by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 11, 2015 21:25
Another market tumble stands in the way of the Fed's artificial....China's announcement earlier today that it had officially launched a new....Although the announcement did not entail an outright devaluation or an expansion....0% daily trading band, markets have interpreted the changes as an easier....The publication of the new basket removes the yuan from being principally....Either way, China's currency will have to depreciate further-not only due....So far, CNY has fallen by only 7% against JPY over the past five months...More CNY declines lie ahead and Monday's (and Tuesday's) fixing will be....Third Avenue Blockade for High-Yield Seekers....The day's biggest headline emerged from the credit front, as US high-yield....The fund announced that the only way to fulfil investor withdrawals would have....As in 2007-8, skeletons have a way to drop off investment funds closets...If Third Avenue sustained nearly $1 bn of redemptions in the 11 months ending....46 bn in withdrawals from all high-yield funds last week, then what would happen....Whether these junk bond funds are energy-related or not, the situation remains....Our stance of expecting no Fed hike in 2015 may have turned unsustainable as....With the ECB decision and strong NFP report behind us, both the US dollar and....That's NOT what these markets are supposed to look like five days before....Regardless of the Fed's outcome next week, were already looking past the..
-
Article: US Jobs Catch up with Reality
by Ashraf Laidi | May 6, 2016 18:36
Not much has changed in USD trading since our March post...Today's neutral-to-negative US jobs report will not do the job to sway the....April payrolls rose by 160K (vs exp 200K), the lowest in 7 months after a 208K....The revisions of the prior 2 months were -19K...The unemployment held at 5%, while the participation rate fell to 62...8% from 63...0%, its first decline in 9 months...The number of people going from being outside the labour force to being....The positives in the report were the 2...5% y/y rise in average hourly earnings y after 2...3% in March and the increase in average weekly hours to 34...5 from 34...4...Other decent signs were the 171K increase in private payrolls vs the 11K....Despite the recent improvement in hourly earnings, the 2...5% y/y rate remains well below the 3...5% levels seen in the pre-crisis highs...That is unlike, the unemployment rate, which is near the pre-crisis lows...The chart above shows how easily-beaten corporate earnings were able to lift the....But the last 2 weeks have seen a normalisation as equities fell back in....Jobs are the last to know....One point worth noting, often repeated in my tweets is that labour markets may....As firms retrench, they usually start with capex reduction (trilling R&D,....Thus, the divergence between weak economic activity and robust employment....Fed's Inflation-Employment Considerations....The big debate inside the Fed remains whether the US economy has reached or is....The problem is that with core PCE price index (Fed's preferred inflation....6% y/y in March from 1...7%, inflation may return near the Fed's 2...0% target...Other measures of inflation (driven by bond market expectations) have stalled....64% late last month, the highest seen since July 2015...nbsp; Fed members in Yellen's camp have long expressed the importance of....At this point, both factors require further improvement, while foreign risks....The aforementioned inflation/jobs dynamics are most crucial for reading....But let's not also forget the broadening weakness in US macro....5%, the lowest in 2 years...The probability of Fed June hike has now fallen to 2% from 10% prior the reports&....Stocks have peaked nearly 3 weeks ago after a 16% rally driven mostly by stock-....For the trading-oriented market participants, we issued a trade in....Finally, the bottom chart from the American Association of Individual....The bullish-bearish spread never broke above its key resistance lebvel, which..
-
Intraday Market Thought: GBP Traders Turn to UK Court Hearings on Brexit
by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 5, 2016 6:50
A crucial court case this week will decide whether UK...Prime Minister Theresa May must call a parliamentary vote before triggering....nbsp; The Court decision is not about whether the Parliament will reject....The process starts next March...Last month, the British pound rallied against all currencies after a case....In the next 4 days, the UK government's top legal experts will seek to....The UK govt lawyers will argue that the June Referendum to take Britain out of....The Supreme Court will decide in January...The most important reason PM May wants to avoid the Parliamentary vote is the....nbsp; May is attempting to keep tight control on the divorce proceedings,....May has pledged to trigger Article 50 by the end of March, and is seeking to....UK ministers argue for the executive privilege, which is known in the UK...as royal prerogative – allowing the government to bypass lawmakers in....This will be an important opportunity for Theresa May to demonstrate she is a....European Union versus the Single Market....Some MPs who voted for the UK to remain in the EU in June say that if Parliament....The single market joins the 28-member EU with Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein....But PM May has refused to commit to keeping Britain in the single market or....Another reason that PM May oppose a vote in Parliament is the longstanding....If the Supreme Court decides to give Parliament the green light to vote on....How will the Court Hearing Impact the British Pound?....Any indications that the hearings are moving in the direction to maintain last....nbsp; If on the other hand the UK govt lawyers present strong arguments for....nbsp; ....Once again, it is important for readers to understand that the Court ruling is....If the Supreme Court rules that last month's High Court decision is to be....The Supreme Court will make its ruling in January.
