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Posts by "asad"
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Posts by Anonymous "asad":
EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
Deflationary Bitcoin صلابة بيتكوين
How bitcoin halving reduces bitcoin inflation below that of gold and how its "hardness" can beat every other asset & currency over time. Watch here.
كيف تنخفض نسبة التضخم في بيتكوين تحت نسبة تضخم الذهب و ما يعني "صلابة" بيتكوين كعملة او إرادة؟
Bitcoin versus Miners Performance
As many of you know 2023 was kind to members of our WhatsApp Broadcast Group who snapped up shares in bitcoin miners, while 2024 has so far been more superior to Bitcoin than most of the miners...
View Hot-Chart..
Aha! Expected oil profit-taking over the weekend. (Your powers of analysis & forecasting seem to be rubbing onto me). ;) My heartiest congrats to the short-selling brethren! Reckon it'll test early 60s...BUT because we all (and sundry) would be waiting for it...it won't REALLY reach the point. I'm putting buys on 66.80. Do I have your blessings Ashraf?
Whatever...we're in the last 60s oil will see for a while. Next US oil inventory data will be very interesting. Stay tuned...
Why do you sound so bitter (or sour)? :)
A true trader's dictionary has no such words as 'catch' and 'chance'. In fact, there are NO missed opportunities in the markets. History repeats itself...and further, markets are to be traded in portions. HOW MANY times have we seen oil touching $65 in the past two months? A dozen, two dozen? So much so, when oil tanked from $68 - $58 in two days and from $63 - $69 in another two, there must've been cries of 'catches' and 'chances'? Yet, oil is (hopefully) heading for $65 again! :) So here's your trade. Even if not, your trade is the $70 - $75.
Verily, those who try to find the top and bottom of the market measure their trades in 'catches' and 'chances'. The market will always be there. It's for us to decide whether we will be there or no [by virtue of our (in)discipline]...
Ah! What a gem!! We almost forgot what happened to the BP refineries couple of years ago...
P.S. Good excuse for Goldman & Morgan to hype up the commodity! ;)
Well, finance theory DOES suggest that any anticipated events are reflected in today's prices ('buy on rumor...sell on news!), but even if neutralize Ashraf's repute and analysis aside, I would have to agree w/ him that there hardly any precedent when the markets anticipated/forecasted/predicted/SPECULATED (or even can) a massive pull back.
Agreed that shocks bring out massive pull backs, but that is it! A massive pull back would not, and do not, occur under 'normal' market functioning. Technical correction here and there, but again, that's it. Surelt, if the opposite were to be the case, you and I would sell all, put our feet up and wait for the markets to rebound. Isn't it?
Asad
Loved your (Qin) comment, "...and I do have a full time job". We take you for granted, don't we? *smiles* But hey, we all love you and wouldn't be making (more than) half the money we do...w/o you! At least I'm happy w/ whatever b & b you provide me.
Now, RADU my friend...I can't dare go against Ashraf's analysis/comments (his analytical start is my analytical limit *modest*)...but allow me to be a bit aggressive. I believe we will see $66.50 too.
- The markets just DO NOT want to go beyond $70
- The US inventories rose 2.5m barrels last week
- OPEC recently gave a negative price outlook (backed their not-so-cool 6m barrels excess capacity - at $147 last year, EC was 3m)
- Yeas, the Euro zone is out of recession...but the US retail sales showed a weaker data today.
Look, Ashraf can tell better tell why oil is playing table tennis around the $70 mark...but traders often look for excuses to raise prices - momentarily! $68 may, and WILL, be seen early next week (though they may decide to take profits on the weekend). But I'll stick to my $66.50 forecast..
Asad
Something has to give in! Either you have to start talking oil or i'll have to jump into forex. I'm just too restless (in nature, but otherwise pretty composed in the market)...
Asad
Your 68.70s oil call has arrived within hours! How far do you think oil will tank? Also, do you reckon RBS is a good future punt? As in buy now for about an year?
Asad
P.S. Sorry Ashraf, I seem to be an odd one - the only one - talking about oil here. Wrong forum?
What's your take on the Brazilian real? I find it quite attractive at current levels - when the economy rebounds it will certainly shoot - and there is positive noise about it from the financial community as well. Please suggest a good, medium-term pairing of real w/ another currency. Thanks!
Asad
P.S. They also now own, which is possibly the world's largest, Tupi oil field (although extracting it is another story). Sugar and coffee prices have reached record-beating highs recently and Brazil is home to both commodities. Hmm it could be a pretty sexy punt within the next 12 mo. What do you think...??
Thanks for your advice on oil resource.
Re/ oil around $30/40...well, it would not only be unjustified, but also unsustainable. At a macro level, producers like Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq and Venezuela - the majors - need a minimum price of $45 *just* to balance their national accounts.
At a micro level, The Exxons & the Shells need a decent price level just to get their research and investment in oil projects. Give and take, this takes our price level to around $50.
At a shady level come the BPs and the Goldmans - world's top two oil traders - who ramp the oil prices up for their gains (although BP could be excused for trading for the sake of streamlining supplies). This has no limit (as we saw the $147 last year). Right now, I'd say they're 'adding' $10 or so to it! Thos would take the level to $60/62 (which, in my faulty perception, should be the level).
Why we have an extra $10, I'll leave to Ashraf guru to explain. Even if we factor in future expectations/uncertainties to the price, NO WAY should it be $70! (Finance theory suggests that future expectations are already factored in today's prices - not necessarily).
I'm perplexed - I am. Ashraf...
Asad