Quickly summarizing why the 2nd straight quarterly GDP contraction does not qualify as recession is due to the negative inventories factor, which not only can be revised higher later, but mainly tends to be a sign of strength and not final demand. One thing for sure, is that the US economy is clearly slowing and could well contract for a 3rd consecutive quarter. No need to spend any more time on this. Wednesday's 75 bp rate hike from the Fed was clearly interpreted as dovish after Powell gave up on forward guidance in favour of data-dependence. Dovish traders (or bond bulls) will point to Powell's readiness to slow growth in order to further bring down inflation. With the broadening signs of rising jobless claims, peaking inflation expectations and broadening yield curve inversions (more on this below), Fed easing will surely come in Q1 2023.  

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