Ashraf's Book: Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis

How to Profit from the Shifting Currents in Global Markets
Wiley Trading Series - 2008

*Ranked #1 in Amazon's Foreign Exchange and Finance sub-categories

 

Chapter 1 Gold and the Dollar

  • End of Bretton Woods System Marks Gold's Takeoff Fed Tightening and FX Interventions Rein in Gold Rally
  • Central Banks Gold Sale Agreements
  • Gold-USD Inverse Relation
  • Recent Exceptions to the Inverse Rule
  • Using Gold to Identify Currency Leaders and Laggards
  • Golds Secular Performance
  • Valuing Currencies via Gold
  • Golden Correlations
  • Dont Forget Falling Gold Production
  • Gold and Equities: Hard versus Monetary Assets
  • Gold-to-Equity Ratios
  • The Role of the Speculators
  • Gold Is Part of a Larger Story

Chapter 2 Oil Fundamentals in the Currency Market

  • From a Gold Standard to an Oil Standard (1970s-1980s)
  • Oil Glut and Price Collapse (1981-1986)
  • The Super Dollar of (1980-1984) The Worlds Third Oil Shock
  • World Intervenes against Strong Dollar (1985-1987)
  • Iraqs Invasion of Kuwait and the Gulf War (1990-1991)
  • The Asian Crisis and OPECs Miscalculation (1997-1998)
  • Oil Thrives on World Growth, Dot-Com Boom (1999-2000)
  • Iraq War Fuels Oil Rally, Dollar Flounders, China Takes Over (2002 to Present)

Chapter 3 When the Dollar was King (1999-2001)

  • The Major Theories
  • Annual Performance Analysis of Individual Currencies

Chapter 4 The Dollar Bear Rises (2002-2007)

  • 2002: The Beginning of the Dollar Bear Market
  • 2003: Dollar Extends Damage, Commodity Currencies Soar
  • 2004: Global Recovery Boosts Currencies against U.S. Dollar
  • 2005: Commodities Soar alongside Dollar, Carry Trades Emerge
  • 2006: Dollar Vulnerable as Fed Ends Two-Year Tightening
  • 2007: Record Oil Boosts Loonie, Helpless Fed Hits Greenback
  • Lessons Learned

Chapter 5 Risk Appetite in the Markets

  • Carry Trades in Foreign Exchange
  • Using Risk Appetite to Gauge FX Flows
  • The VIX
  • Futures Flows
  • Corporate Bond Spreads
  • Tying It All Altogether: 1999-2007

Chapter 6 Reading the Fed via Yield Curves, Equities, and Commodities

  • Yield Curves and the Economy
  • Types of Yield Curves
  • Rationale of Inverted Yield Curve Implications
  • Effectiveness of Yield Curve Signals Implications
  • Greenspans Conundrum Proved Bernankes Problem
  • Implications for Growth, Stocks, and Currencies
  • Tying Interest Rates to the Gold-Oil Ratio

Chapter 7 U.S. Imbalances, FX Reserve Diversification, and the U.S. Dollar

  • The U.S. Twin Deficits
  • U.S. Current Account Deficit: Old Problem, New Challenges
  • Adding the Budget Balance to the Mix
  • Financing the Deficits: The Path to Unsustainability?
  • Dissecting U.S.-Bound Foreign Capital Flows
  • U.S. Stocks and Bonds Vie for Foreign Money
  • Capital Flows Shift Identities
  • Foreign Direct Investment and M&As
  • How Long Will Foreign Capital Be Available on the Cheap?
  • Dont Ignore U.S. Investors Flows Abroad
  • Currency Reserve Diversification: OPEC and the Middle East
  • Further Currency Diversification Is Inevitable
  • The View Ahead

Chapter 8 Commodities Super Cycles and Currencies

  • The Current Commodity Cycle versus Previous Cycles
  • Dissecting Commodity Classes
  • Commodities and their Currencies
  • Developing World to Maintain Ripe Outlook for Food and Grains
  • Energy Efficiency Not Enough to Halt High Oil
  • Copper and Gold to Shine on Long Term Fundamentals
  • Commanding Heights or Common Bubbles?

Chapter 9 Selected Topics in Foreign Exchange

  • Revisiting Yield Curves
  • Is Dollar Stability a Necessity?
  • How Far Will Commodities Outstrip Equities?
  • U.S. Politics and the U.S. Dollar
Comments (Showing latest 10 of 10) View All Comments
stockstr
grhtg, Argentina
Posts: 0
1 year ago
Jun 5, 2023 15:09
Alphabet stock strategy
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It is one of the Big Five American information technology companies, alongside Amazon, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft. The establishment of Alphabet Inc. was prompted by a desire to make the core Google business “cleaner and more accountable” while allowing greater autonomy to group companies that operate in businesses other than Internet services.

Founders Larry Page and Sergey brin announced their resignation from their executive posts in December 2019, with the CEO role to be filled by Sundar Pichai, also the CEO of Google. Page and brin remain employees, board members, and controlling shareholders of Alphabet Inc.

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Stick to the Plan
Successful traders have to move fast, but they don’t have to think fast. Why? Because they’ve developed a trading strategy in advance, along with the discipline to stick to it. It is important to follow your formula closely rather than try to chase profits. Don’t let your emotions get the best of you and make you abandon your strategy. Bear in mind a mantra of day traders: plan your trade and trade your plan.

Stock Trading Strategy identifies trading opportunities and potential risks before getting into a trade.

Most trading strategies are based on either technical analysis
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most of traders often look at liquidity, volatility, and volume when deciding what stocks to trade.

Importance of Stock Trading Strategy Is Power

How to Limit Losses When Day Trading
Stop-Loss Orders
It’s important to define exactly how you’ll limit your trade risk. A stop-loss order is designed to limit losses on a position in a security.
For long positions, a stop-loss can be placed below a recent low and for short positions, above a recent high. It can also be based on volatility.

Following a set of rules outlined by a trading strategy will remove destructive emotions from your trading. It’s much easier to open, manage, and stick to profitable trade if you have a clear set of rules that define how to manage your profits. Also, closing a losing and non-performing trade becomes a normal trading decision if you have a successful strategy.


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PayPal stock strategy and PayPal Holdings, Inc. is an American multinational financial technology company operating an online payments system in the majority of countries that support online money transfers, and serves as an electronic alternative to traditional paper methods such as checks and money orders.

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pattern
efeas, Egypt
Posts: 0
2 years ago
Mar 23, 2023 15:33
Individual Differences Psychology
Perhaps the first task of every teacher in a class should be to know and study individual differences among his pupils. Individual differences in bodily appearance and physique, habits and skills, interests and temperaments, abilities and attainments have already been recognised.
According to Skinner, “Today we think of individual differences as including any measurable aspect of the total personality.” It is clear from this definition of individual differences that it comprehends every aspect of human personality which is in some manner measurable.
Types of Individual Differences:
1. Physical differences:
Shortness or tallness of stature, darkness or fairness of complexion, fatness, thinness, or weakness are various physical individual differences.
2. Differences in intelligence:
There are differences in intelligence level among different individuals. We can classify the individuals from super-normal (above 120 I.Q.) to idiots (from 0 to 50 I.Q.) on the basis of their intelligence level.
3. Differences in attitudes:
Individuals differ in their attitudes towards different people, objects, institutions and authority.
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4. Differences in achievement:
It has been found through achievement tests that individuals differ in their achievement abilities. These differences are very much visible in reading, writing and in learning mathematics.
These differences in achievement are even visible among the children who are at the same level of intelligence. These differences are on account of the differences in the various factors of intelligence and the differences in the various experiences, interests and educational background.
5. Differences in motor ability:
There are differences in motor ability. These differences are visible at different ages. Some people can perform mechanical tasks easily, while others, even though they are at the same level, feel much difficulty in performing these tasks.
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6. Differences on account of sex:
McNemar and Terman discovered the following differences between men and women, on the basis of some studies:
(i) Women have greater skill in memory while men have greater motor ability.
(ii) Handwriting of women is superior while men excel in mathematics and logic.
(iii) Women show greater skill in making sensory distinctions of taste, touch and smell etc., while men show greater reaction and conscious of size- weight illusion.
(iv) Women are superior to men in languages, while men are superior in physics and chemistry.
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(v) Women are better than men in mirror drawing. Faults of speech etc. in men were found to be three times of such faults in women.
(vi) Women are more susceptible to suggestion while there are three times as many colour blind men as there are women.
(vii) Young girls take interest in stories of love, fairy tales, stories of the school and home and day-dreaming and show various levels in their play. On the other hand boys take interest in stories of bravery, science, war, scouting, stories of games and sports, stories and games of occupation and skill.
7. Racial differences:
There are different kinds of racial differences. Differences of environment is a normal factor in causing these differences. Karl Brigham has composed a list on the basis of differences in levels of intelligence among people who have migrated to United States from other countries.
On the basis of these average differences between the races, the mental age of a particular individual cannot be calculated since this difference is based on environment.

8. Differences due to nationality:
Individuals of different nations differ in respect of physical and mental differences, interests and personality etc. ‘Russians are tall and stout’; ‘Ceylonese are short and slim’; ‘Germans have no sense of humour’; ‘Yellow races are cruel and revengeful’; ‘Americans are hearty and frank’; Indians are timid and peace-loving’ and the like observations enter into our common talk.
9. Differences due to economic status:
Differences in children’s interests, tendencies and character are caused by economic differences.
10. Differences in interests:
Factors such as sex, family background level of development, differences of race and nationality etc., cause differences in interests.
11. Emotional differences: https://www.gold-pattern.com/
Individuals differ in their emotional reactions to a particular situation. Some are irritable and aggressive and they get angry very soon. There are others who are of peaceful nature and do not get angry easily. At a particular thing an individual may be so much enraged that he may be prepared for the worst crime like murder, while another person may only laugh at it.
12. Personality differences:
There are differences in respect of personality. On the basis of differences in personality, individuals have been classified into many groups.

Forexdirect
avallon, France
Posts: 0
2 years ago
Dec 26, 2022 11:06
Wheat, a profitable investment for your portfolio

Wheat is a very profitable investment for your portfolio. With a globally diversified grain market, wheat offers investors an opportunity to diversify their portfolio and profit from market fluctuations. Expected returns are high and risk-free trading is possible through futures contracts. It is important to consider wheat as a long-term investment tool that can help you achieve your short and medium-term investment goals. In conclusion, when used wisely, wheat can be a great way to amplify your portfolio and profit from market fluctuations.

Our full analysis of the wheat market: tips to follow

After a comprehensive analysis of the wheat market, we conclude that wheat can offer attractive investment potential. We recommend that investors educate themselves about the market and the factors that influence the wheat price, such as global demand and supply, weather conditions and agricultural policies. In addition, it is important to regularly monitor short and long-term price trends to make more informed decisions. As with any other form of investment, it is important to consider your long-term goals, time frame and risk tolerance before making investments in wheat. It is also important to diversify a portfolio to minimise risk and maximise returns.

Our tips on how to optimise your investment in wheat

Investing in wheat is a great way to grow your holdings and profit from price fluctuations. However, you should be careful and well informed before making a decision. Our advice is to diversify your portfolio, investing in different varieties of wheat at different times to spread the risk and maximise the reward. Study the markets, follow the trends, define your short and long term goals and choose your products carefully. In addition, it is important to know when to buy or sell to reduce the risk of your position suffering significant losses. Finally, keep a close eye on the financial news as it can have an impact on the price of wheat. Our conclusion is that when you invest in wheat carefully and intelligently, it can be a great way to grow your wealth in the long run.

How to invest well in wheat: our final conclusion

Investing in wheat can be a great way to diversify your portfolios and earn profits. At the same time, it is important to be cautious and aware of the risks involved. Make sure you know all the options and factors involved before making a decision. Also, constantly monitor the market to stay abreast of trends. This way, you will be better able to take full advantage of the benefits of investing in wheat. Our final conclusion on the subject is that investing in wheat can be a great option to diversify your portfolios and achieve a good return on your investment, provided you do your research and are aware of the risks involved.




Investing in wheat: an analysis to help you make the best decision

Investing in wheat can be a good option to take for investors looking for short to medium term returns. There are several advantages to this investment option: the volatility of the wheat market is relatively low, which means your investments are less likely to suffer significant losses if fluctuations occur. In addition, wheat is considered a relatively affordable commodity and can offer attractive returns in the short to medium term. However, it is important to note that wheat prices can fluctuate depending on weather and political conditions, which should be taken into account when considering an investment in this commodity. Having analysed the market and considered the risks and benefits inherent in investing in wheat, our conclusion is that investing in wheat can be a good option for people wishing to diversify their portfolio with commodities

Use our tips to maximise your gains on wheat

Our conclusion on your wheat investment is that by following our tips, you can maximise your gains. We recommend that you diversify your portfolio with wheat-related assets to reduce volatility and improve overall profitability. You should also monitor the wheat market and industry trends to ensure that your investments are still in line with your objectives and safe. Finally, assessing the risks associated with each type of investment, while it may seem like a daunting task, is essential to success as a wheat investor. By following these tips, we hope that you will be able to amass considerable profits over the long term.

Decisions to make when investing in the wheat market

Your investment in the wheat market can be very profitable, especially when prices are rising. However, it is important to make informed decisions when investing. You should study the wheat market carefully and take into account factors such as supply and demand, weather conditions and national and international agricultural policies. Once you have gathered this information, it is possible to accurately determine the best investment strategy - short or long term - for your specific sector. Having taken these steps to understand the wheat market, you will be better equipped to profit from your investment. Our conclusion is that if you are well-informed about the wheat market and make thoughtful and realistic decisions, you can maximise your chances of successfully investing in wheat.

What we learned from investing in wheat and how it can help you

We've learned that investing in wheat can have many benefits for investors. For example, wheat is traditionally a stable, low-volatility commodity, offering its investors protection against market cycles. In addition, wheat is a highly marketable commodity that can be sold at relatively stable prices and is ready to use. Finally, wheat offers diversification opportunities for portfolios, which means that investors can choose to diversify into different crops or a combination of crops to reduce risk.

In conclusion, we believe that investing in wheat is an attractive option for anyone who wants to invest in a stable market with less volatility. However, as any investment has risks and uncertainties, we always recommend that you carefully consider the performance history and nature of the market before investing.

A comprehensive guide to investing in the wheat market

Our conclusion on an investment in wheat is positive. It is a volatile market but one that offers interesting opportunities for experienced investors. With a comprehensive and detailed guide to investing in the wheat market, you will be able to make informed decisions and benefit from the volatility of the market. In-depth research, real-time information and analysis of wheat investment trends and risks can help you build a diversified and profitable portfolio. Finally, be sure to diversify your portfolio sufficiently to minimise risk while maximising opportunities for gains.

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freeforex
Central, Egypt
Posts: 0
5 years ago
Jun 12, 2019 19:31
The Rounding Bottom
The Rounding Bottom is a long-term reversal pattern that is best suited for weekly charts. It is also referred to as a saucer bottom, and represents a long consolidation period that turns from a bearish bias to a bullish bias.

Prior Trend: In order to be a reversal pattern, there must be a prior trend to reverse. Ideally, the low of a rounding bottom will mark a new low or reaction low. In practice, there are occasions when the low is recorded many months earlier and the security trades flat before forming the pattern. When the rounding bottom does finally form, its low may not be the lowest low of the last few months.
Decline: The first portion of the rounding bottom is the decline that leads to the low of the pattern. This decline can take on different forms: some are quite jagged with a number of reaction highs and lows, while others trade lower in a more linear fashion.
Low: The low of the rounding bottom can resemble a “V” bottom, but should not be too sharp and should take a few weeks to form. Because prices are in a long-term decline, the possibility of a selling climax exists that could create a lower spike.
Advance: The advance off of the lows forms the right half of the pattern and should take about the same amount of time as the prior decline. If the advance is too sharp, then the validity of a rounding bottom may be in question.
Breakout: Bullish confirmation comes when the pattern breaks above the reaction high that marked the beginning of the decline at the start of the pattern. As with most resistance breakouts, this level can become support. However, rounding bottoms represent long-term reversal and this new support level may not be that significant.
Volume: In an ideal pattern, volume levels will track the shape of the rounding bottom: high at the beginning of the decline, low at the end of the decline and rising during the advance. Volume levels are not too important on the decline, but there should be an increase in volume on the advance and preferably on the breakout.
A rounding bottom could be thought of as a head and shoulders bottom without readily identifiable shoulders. The head represents the low and is fairly central to the pattern. The volume levels throughout the pattern mimic those of the head and shoulders bottom; confirmation comes with a resistance breakout. While symmetry is preferable on the rounding bottom, the left and right side do not have to be equal in time or slope. The important thing is to capture the essence of the pattern.

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hankdo1524
California, United States
Posts: 0
6 years ago
Jun 5, 2019 10:48
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freeforex
Central, Egypt
Posts: 0
6 years ago
May 24, 2019 16:15

Head and Shoulders Top

A Head and Shoulders reversal pattern forms after an uptrend, and its completion marks a trend reversal. The pattern contains three successive peaks, with the middle peak (head) being the highest and the two outside peaks (shoulders) being low and roughly equal. The reaction lows of each peak can be connected to form support, or a neckline.

As its name implies, the Head and Shoulders reversal pattern is made up of a left shoulder, a head, a right shoulder, and a neckline. Other parts playing a role in the pattern are volume, the breakout, price target and support turned resistance. We will look at each part individually, and then put them together with some examples.

Prior Trend: It is important to establish the existence of a prior uptrend for this to be a reversal pattern. Without a prior uptrend to reverse, there cannot be a Head and Shoulders reversal pattern (or any reversal pattern for that matter).

Left Shoulder: While in an uptrend, the left shoulder forms a peak that marks the high point of the current trend. After making this peak, a decline ensues to complete the formation of the shoulder (1). The low of the decline usually remains above the trend line, keeping the uptrend intact.

Head: From the low of the left shoulder, an advance begins that exceeds the previous high and marks the top of the head. After peaking, the low of the subsequent decline marks the second point of the neckline (2). The low of the decline usually breaks the uptrend line, putting the uptrend in jeopardy.

Right Shoulder: The advance from the low of the head forms the right shoulder. This peak is lower than the head (a lower high) and usually in line with the high of the left shoulder. While symmetry is preferred, sometimes the shoulders can be out of whack. The decline from the peak of the right shoulder should break the neckline.

Neckline: The neckline forms by connecting low points 1 and 2. Low point 1 marks the end of the left shoulder and the beginning of the head. Low point 2 marks the end of the head and the beginning of the right shoulder. Depending on the relationship between the two low points, the neckline can slope up, slope down or be horizontal. The slope of the neckline will affect the pattern's degree of bearishness—a downward slope is more bearish than an upward slope. In some cases, multiple low points can be used to form the neckline.

Volume: As the Head and Shoulders pattern unfolds, volume plays an important role in confirmation. Volume can be measured as an indicator (OBV, Chaikin Money Flow) or simply by analyzing volume levels. Ideally, but not always, volume during the advance of the left shoulder should be higher than during the advance of the head. Together, the decrease in volume and the new high of the head serve as a warning sign. The next warning sign comes when volume increases on the decline from the peak of the head, then decreases during the advance of the right shoulder. Final confirmation comes when volume further increases during the decline of the right shoulder.

Neckline Break: The head and shoulders pattern is not complete and the uptrend is not reversed until neckline support is broken. Ideally, this should also occur in a convincing manner, with an expansion in volume.

Support Turned Resistance: Once support is broken, it is common for this same support level to turn into resistance. Sometimes, but certainly not always, the price will return to the support break, and offer a second chance to sell.

Price Target: After breaking neckline support, the projected price decline is found by measuring the distance from the neckline to the top of the head. This distance is then subtracted from the neckline to reach a price target. Any price target should serve as a rough guide, and other factors should be considered as well. These factors might include previous support levels, Fibonacci retracements, or long-term moving averages.


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Shanel Batz
CA, United States
Posts: 0
6 years ago
May 24, 2019 10:17
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freeforex
Central, Egypt
Posts: 0
6 years ago
May 14, 2019 21:46
Develop your Trading Plan

Sometimes there is a misconception that you need highly evolved market knowledge and years of trading experience to be successful. However, we often see that the more information we have the more difficult it is to create a clear plan. More information tends to create hesitation and doubt, which in turn allows emotions to creep in. This can prevent you from taking a step back and looking at a situation subjectively.

If you don’t know where you are going, any road will get you there. In trading, if you don’t set out a plan for your trades and develop strategies to follow you have no way to measure your success. The vast majority of people do not trade to a plan, so it’s not a mystery why they lose money. Trading with a plan is comparable to building a business. We are never going to be able to beat the market. In general it’s not about winning or losing, it’s about being profitable overall.

Why a trading plan is important
When trading, as in most endeavors, it’s important to start at the end and work backwards to create your plan and figure out what type of trader you should be. The most successful traders trade to a plan, and may even have several plans that work together. Always write things down. Why? Because it will help you stay focused on your trading objectives, and the less judgment we have to use the better. A plan helps you maintain discipline as a trader. It should help you trade consistently, manage your emotions, and even help to improve your trading strategy. It is also important to use your plan. Many people make the mistake of spending all their time creating a plan, then never implementing it.

Key components to develop a trading plan
Trading plan structure and monetary goals
Research and education
Strategy using fundamental and technical tools
Money and risk management
Timing
Trade mechanics, documentation, and testing
How to build a trading plan
Make sure you do your own research and build a plan according to your needs. Find confidence in what you know. The tools you have selected for your strategy are key, from the type of chart to the specific drawing tools to even the most elaborate of strategies. Test your plan in the beginning to make sure you are on the right track. After you have begun trading, continue testing it regularly. This allows you to measure your success by clearly seeing what works and what does not work. From there you can tweak elements that might be weaker and not contributing to your overall goal. Ask yourself the following questions (The answers to these will assist you in the foundation for your trading plan and should be referred back to regularly to insure that you are on track with your plan.)

Why am I trading?
If your immediate answer is, “to make money” you should stop right there. If the only goal is to make as much money as fast as we can, we are ultimately doomed, because it will never be enough. Managing your losses should be your primary goal. This will create an environment in which profits can be generated.

What is your motivation?
Solid retirement? New career? Spend more time with family and friends?

Ask yourself, “What are my strengths and weaknesses?”
How do I maximize my strengths to minimize my weaknesses?
An example of a weakness is a need to constantly watch one’s trades. Is your laptop on the pillow, waking you up in the middle of the night to monitor trades? It’s really difficult to make intelligent decisions when you’re half awake.
Is the amount of money I have to trade with sensible to achieve my goals?
Look at things in percentages; remember leverage is a double-edged sword. That is why risk and money management are key.

Deciding what type of trader you are can be tough; especially since the trader you want to be can be very different from the type of trader you should be based on your behaviors and characteristics. Once you have laid out your goals, risk appetite, strengths, and weaknesses it should become apparent which type of trading fits you best. You will notice three columns in the chart; they are labeled short, base and long. Base equals the timeframe charts you spend the majority of your time, if you are not sure, this is the timeframe chart that you keep going back to. Short and long are the timeframe charts that you refer to confirming or denying what is happening in the base timeframe chart. A common mistake traders make is jumping around randomly between chart timeframes.


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Tiara Mueller
CA, United States
Posts: 0
6 years ago
May 13, 2019 10:58
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Tiara Mueller
CA, United States
Posts: 0
6 years ago
May 10, 2019 10:07
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