Most major global central banks are turning increasingly hawkish to the detriment of your bonds and equities. Recession concerns are growing, while collateral effects from the war in Ukraine continue to pile up. As a result, investors need to take a step back and reevaluate their portfolio strategies and tools to ensure they're aligned with evolving market conditions. That's why I'm so excited to be speaking at The MoneyShow Orlando, October 30 - November 1, 2022, at the Omni Orlando Resort at ChampionsGate. I can't wait to share my best guidance for this challenging environment with you. Plus, I'll be joined by Steve Forbes, Stephen Moore, Ed Yardeni along with dozens of other world-class market experts.

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These are precisely the kind of seasoned professionals who are eager to share their advice on how you can protect your nest egg and profit from market volatility. There is no market condition we have not experienced before...and survived!

As a valued subscriber, you can also save 20% on a Standard Pass to the Orlando conference. Just use my exclusive discount code “TWMSSPK20” when registering to attend here. Or if you prefer, call the MoneyShow team at 1-800-970-4355 and reference that code.

Here is my presentation schedule:

Applying Intermarket Fractals to USD, Metals, and Equity Indices

Sunday, October 30, 2022 | 5:00 pm - 5:45 pm EDT

Again, we're at a critical juncture in the markets and the economy. That makes it incredibly important to stay ahead of the curve and hear the country's top money experts share in-depth intelligence about the markets and the catalysts driving them. I look forward to sharing the insights, strategies, and forecasts you need, and my fellow MoneyShow speakers do, too. I hope to see you in Orlando soon!

Sincerely

Ashraf Laidi

Intermarket Strategy Ltd. and AshrafLaidi.com

There seems to be a disconcerting shift in assumptions about interest rates and markets. More specifically, a broadening complacency about the implications of a Fed pivot –defined as a halting of rate hikes, or, the start of easing in Fed policy. The growing expectation that once Fed tightening is halted, it would mark the start of the mother of all rallies in equity indices, metals and cryptos. The thinking goes that once bond yields—shift from a peaking formation to a clear decline—financial conditions would ease, dollar cheapens and liquidity conditions improve. Does this make sense? Or, is it dangerously wrong?

It should be wrong. Whether dangerously so, depends on your portfolio allocation and/or positioning. Let's start off by reminding that each Fed easing campaign since 2000 coincided with a recession, as well as a decline of at least 30% in equity markets. Before you rush to protest that “all Fed easings occurred during recessions”, recall the rate cuts of autumn 1998 aimed at alleviating the economic pain of the Asian crisis and the blow up of LTCM, occurred during a US economic expansion.

3 crises, 3 market playbooks

You all know by now that the three easing campaigns of 2001-2002, 2007-2009 and that of 2019-2020 were triggered by distinct types of economic/financial crisis. What you may not know is the following:

2001-2002 Fed easing ensued entirely during a declining market. In fact, equity indices peaked nearly 12 months before the start of the Fed easing. What on earth was Greenspan waiting for? 

2007-2009 Fed easing began one month before the peak of market (or two months if you start from the discount rate cut of August 2007). This basically means, financial markets briefly eked out one final high before the crash. 

2019-2020 Fed easing was an affair unlike any other. Interest rate cuts began in July 2019, firing up an accelerating bull market, which raged throughout the rate cuts in H2 2019. Had it not been for the global outbreak of Covid-19 in February 2020, would markets have resumed rallying during global rate cuts? 

Assuming the current bond market prediction for Fed rate cuts in Q1 2023 is realized, how would markets react? Will it be the prolonged selloffs a la 2001-2002, or the late stage plunge of 2020? This obviously depends on the length and breadth of ensuing recession as well as the break in equity and bond markets. 

Undoubtedly, Fed policy cycles are far shorter than in 2001-2. This may lead many to anticipate a prolonged rally at the first sign of Fed pivot, as was the case in summer 2019. Yet, there are serious obstacles to such thinking. We shall find out next week in the 2nd part of this piece. 

 

هذه أهم المستويات الفنية في الذهب، الدولار الأسترالي، اليورو و الاسترليني بالإضافة الى اثيريوم مقابل بتكوين

 و النفط قبل خطاب جاي باول المنتظر يوم الخميس. رابط الفيديو الكامل

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