Here is an example from today's trading, setting up our Whatsapp Broadcast Group members with written, voice and chart notes pre-US data. Once the data were released 8:30 & 10:00 Eastern time (13:30 & 15:00 London), we followed-up by guiding members on gold's likely reaction as well at which point the reversal would start (we missed the timing by 30 mins today). The WBG does not only rely on intramarket technicals to trade FX, metals and indices, but also takes a dive into intraday flows, when conditions are suitable--like today, yesterday and Wednesday (see the 30-mins chart inside the WBG chat).
Here is another example of taking advantage of our anticipation of the familiar pattern in $40-50 declines off Gold's tops. We already demonstrated how this worked in late December here. Yesterday, we entered a short around 1913, targetting 1900, while we retained our 1919 long targetting 1926/7. It's all good to say "gold should extend higher", or "time for a pullback", but the challenge is to implement ideas into trades. Since November, gold made $40-$50 pullbacks in 6 occasions, respecting a simple classic trendline support. Here it is below.
On Dec 6th, I posted a chart of the USD/CNH (US dollar vs the Chinese offshore yuan), showing a striking Head & Shoulders formation. 33 days later, the H&S formation is 95-98% complete after USD fell against all major currencies. This also coincides with 10% drop in DXY from its highs. There's that "new" saw in FX about USDCNH or USDCNY becoming the new USDJPY. Regardless, 6.78 on USDCNH represents a nearly complete H&S formation. Does that mean USD has bottomed for now? Does its coincide with a USD recovery on Thursday's release of US CPI? Or, will we see a correction during the 1-2 days before CPI, followed by fresh declines. What does it portend for any coinciding technicals with gold and indices? Here is that chart again Look where we were, and where we are now. http://ashraflaidi.com/hot-chart/dxy-cnh Several people are flying to London this week for my Private Event on Saturday at The Gherkin. Stay tuned.
You all remember that chart of XME (Metals ETF) vs XLE (Energy ETF) I posted here on Nov 8th -- hours before Gold jumped $20 to break above $1700 and never look back. Yes, 2 hrs after the chart was posted, gold broke (and stayed) above $1700 ever since. Below is the updated chart (today) and below that is the original chart from Nov 8. What do you notice? The advancing RSI went on to test its trendline resistance and is setting to do so again. Why do I bother to chart metals vs energy? The best way to illustrate a strengthening market is to compare it to another robust/rising market...otherwise what's the point? And if inflation slows futher, what would you think happens to the battle between metals and energy?
Same chart 2 months ago