Intraday Market Thoughts

11 Week Cycle Meets 100 DMA

Jan 19, 2022 11:15 | by Ashraf Laidi

Will the 11-week cycle strike again? Full video هل هذا أسبوع القاع لبتكوين و إثيريوم؟

Latest USDJPY تحديث

Jan 17, 2022 16:34 | by Ashraf Laidi

Last week's tumble in USDJPY was the perfect product of broad USD weakness and overall JPY rebound, as US indices dropped across the board. Friday's bounce from the 55-DMA is a familiar occurence for USDJPY (as was the case in late Nov 2021, mid April 2021 and October 2018). According to the latest report from the CFTC commitment of traders, overall net shorts in JPY vs USD continue to escalate (see B in lower left chart). This could follow the same pattern as that seen in mid 2017 (A). For more detail on this pattern, watch from 8:24 in this video.  

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Latest USDJPY تحديث - Jpy Net Longs Positioning Latest Vs Youtube Jan 17 2022 (Chart 1)

USD Bears May Wait a Bit More

Jan 14, 2022 17:37 | by Ashraf Laidi

As much as we'd like to embark on the sell-USD bandwagon as early as possible, we think it is yet best to wait. Studies showing USD weakness starting 3-4 months before Fed rate hikes sound astute and clever, but they're based on average movements and serve as poor guides for swing traders. They will not help you anticipate corrections or pullbacks in current USD weakness. But as the charts below show, there are trends, countertrends and much signaling inside the noise. 

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USD Bears May Wait a Bit More - Adxy Dxy Jan 14 2022 (Chart 1)

The EURUSD daily chart broke out of its wedge on Wednesday's CPI release, allowing us to signal the WhatsApp Broadcast Group to go long at 1.1390s and target 1.1455/60. Will the top of the wedge become support at 1.1380s?  On the weekly timeframe, EURUSD remains above a less convincing trendline support from the March 2020 low, calling up 1.1200 support.

The not-so-soon warning on USD decline is backed by the weekly DXY chart near 94.90s. 

Finally, the daily and weekly charts of the Asian Dollar Index (provided by Bloomberg-JPMorgan) indicate a robust ascent with an imminent break to the upside. The importance of the ADXY lies in its close correlation with gold, especially during those confusing phases when DXY and XAUUSD moved in tandem. For an explainer on ADXY and XAUUSD, watch from 25:10 mins of this video. 


Gold Silver الذهب مقابل الفضة

Jan 12, 2022 15:34 | by Ashraf Laidi

Watch here شاهد هنا

Gold Silver الذهب مقابل الفضة - Gold Silver Video Snapshot (Chart 1)

داخل رياضيات الذهب

Jan 11, 2022 13:54 | by Ashraf Laidi

هل يمكن الاعتماد على التحليل_الزمني باستعمال الرياضيات؟ وما هي العوامل الفنية والأساسية التي ستنقذ الذهب من رفع الفائدة؟ تعرّفوا على التفاصيل في هذا الفيديو الحصري مع أشرف العايدي