Intraday Market Thoughts

Timing Gold's Intraday Reversal توقيت إنعكاسات الذهب

Jan 27, 2023 17:07 | by Ashraf Laidi

Here is an example from today's trading, setting up our Whatsapp Broadcast Group members with written, voice and chart notes pre-US data. Once the data were released 8:30 & 10:00 Eastern time (13:30 & 15:00 London), we followed-up by guiding members on gold's likely reaction as well at which point the reversal would start (we missed the timing by 30 mins today). The WBG does not only rely on intramarket technicals to trade FX, metals and indices, but also takes a dive into intraday flows, when conditions are suitable--like today, yesterday and Wednesday (see the 30-mins chart inside the WBG chat). 

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Timing Gold's Intraday Reversal توقيت إنعكاسات الذهب - Whatsapp Gold 3 Pm Club Jan 27 2023 (Chart 1)

Another Short Long Combo in Gold مضاربة الذهب على الإتجاهين

Jan 18, 2023 17:38 | by Ashraf Laidi

Here is another example of taking advantage of our anticipation of the familiar pattern in $40-50 declines off Gold's tops. We already demonstrated how this worked in late December here. Yesterday, we entered a short around 1913, targetting 1900, while we retained our 1919 long targetting 1926/7. It's all good to say "gold should extend higher", or "time for a pullback", but the challenge is to implement ideas into trades. Since November, gold made $40-$50 pullbacks in 6 occasions, respecting a simple classic trendline support. Here it is below.    

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Another Short Long Combo in Gold مضاربة الذهب على الإتجاهين - Whatsapp Gold Long Short Jan 18 2023 (Chart 1)

CAD on the Cusp

Jan 11, 2023 16:13 | by Ashraf Laidi

USDCAD is back down below 1.3500, not quite hitting the final Head and Shoulders target mentioned to our WhatsApp Broadcast Group members on Nov 4th [see chart below]. So what is next for the pair? Last Friday, Canada had a stellar jobs report from with employment rising (full-time and part time), unemployment falling and the participation rate gaining. See how each USDCAD rebound above the neckline failed to break the right shoulder of 1.37 during market selloffs (risk-off). Any renewed episode of market selling (possibly a strong CPI tomorrow) could lift the pair back to 1.3480/90s. Yet, my position remains unchanged (as it has since Nov 4th). Will the next phase of USD selling take us to 1.3170? What's so special about 1.3170 apart from it being a H&S targetMost pertinently, there is a unique relationship between USDCAD and its 200-DMA, which makes a retest of the average an inevitability. If you want to learn how incorporate interFX and intermarket analysis such as using the CNH H&S as a reference for your positioning alongside XAUUSD, then come to my private seminar in London this Saturday. There will be several fellow traders, a 3-course lunch from The Gherkin restaurant and a free autographed copy of my book, not to mention trading account incentives from our sponsor. 

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CAD on the Cusp - Whatsapp Usdcad Nov 11 2022 (Chart 1)

Is CNH H&S Complete?

Jan 9, 2023 20:49 | by Ashraf Laidi

On Dec 6th, I posted a chart of the USD/CNH (US dollar vs the Chinese offshore yuan), showing a striking Head & Shoulders formation. 33 days later, the H&S formation is 95-98% complete after USD fell against all major currencies. This also coincides with 10% drop in DXY from its highs. There's that "new" saw in FX about USDCNH or USDCNY becoming the new USDJPY. Regardless, 6.78 on USDCNH represents a nearly complete H&S formation. Does that mean USD has bottomed for now? Does its coincide with a USD recovery on Thursday's release of US CPI? Or, will we see a correction during the 1-2 days before CPI, followed by fresh declines. What does it portend for any coinciding technicals with gold and indices?   Here is that chart again Look where we were, and where we are now.   Several people are flying to London this week for my Private Event on Saturday at The Gherkin. Stay tuned.  

Metals vs Energy Before & After

Jan 6, 2023 12:43 | by Ashraf Laidi

You all remember that chart of XME (Metals ETF) vs XLE (Energy ETF) I posted here on Nov 8th -- hours before Gold jumped $20 to break above $1700 and never look back. Yes, 2 hrs after the chart was posted, gold broke (and stayed) above $1700 ever since. Below is the updated chart (today) and below that is the original chart from Nov 8. What do you notice? The advancing RSI went on to test its trendline resistance and is setting to do so again. Why do I bother to chart metals vs energy? The best way to illustrate a strengthening market is to compare it to another robust/rising market...otherwise what's the point? And if inflation slows futher, what would you think happens to the battle between metals and energy?

Today's chart

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Metals vs Energy Before & After - Xme Xle Jan 6 2023 (Chart 1)

Same chart 2 months ago

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Metals vs Energy Before & After - Xme Xle Nov 8 2022 (Chart 2)