Intraday Market Thoughts Archives
Displaying results for week of Jan 18, 2026Trump's Golden Hit
Here is 90-second video on gold's movements during Trump's speech in Davos. The apparent deal struck with Europe over Greenland has helped stocks and weighed down on metals. Gold fell more than $100 after reaching the $4890 target first mentioned 4 weeks ago. I still own my nulcear and rare earths stocks, such as CCJ, OKLO, TMC and UAMY as well as the semiconductor derivative plays, but also diversified to non tech such as AIR, APG, BBIO and others. After having united Europeans over Greenland resulting from his threatsm, Trump is now shifting towards gradually dividing Europe by prompting nations to compete for positioning over rare earths. China will also likely revert to its aggressive policy and rare earths will likely benefitl. The Maths Reminder on XAUUSD is in this video.
4890 Hit, Now What?
In Yesterday's IMT, I reminded about the importance of 4890 oz gold and the various technical approaches used to arrive at that level. This morning a member of the WhatsApp Broadcast Group woke up in the Middle East and read my reminder from last night about reiterating the interim resistance of 4890. The member was lucky enough to find gold at 4888 and so decided to short. What happens now? The 15 mins chart is at a wedge, which could either break down to at least 4845/50, or break above the wedge and hit 4940. Trump will address Davos at 13:30 GMT, may serve as a catalyst. But Silver has yet to reach 100, so we're far from done.
Gold 4850 No Change
On December 24, I published the chart case for 4890oz Gold. You can see the chart here, but the full explanation was sent out to the WhatsApp Broadcast Group. If you are trading XAUUSD (on leverage) then it is best to target 4830/50. I've made the point repeatedly how 4850 gold and 100 silver were part of my target of 48/47 for the Gold Silver ratio. The combination of escalating tariff threats and geopopolitical dangers arising from the Greenland issue is boosting gold and silver, while also hurting the US dollar on the rising expectations that European sovereign nations, their pension funds and insurance companies will not only buy less USD assets, but also will further hedge their USD-denominated assets. Here is that gold post again.
Silver's Road to 102
I do not expect you to read or watch every video I send, but if you care about understanding why in late December and again on Jan 12 I called $100 oz for silver and $4800 oz for gold. The final 1/3 of this video (from Jan 12) shows a fractal in gold, which helps make the case for $100oz silver. [(84-70) + 84.16] = 102. See below.
