Intraday Market Thoughts Archives
Displaying results for week of Feb 08, 20263 Stocks Against Nasdaq
Here are 3 stocks I bought last year aimed at diversifying against corrections in technology sector. I shared these 3 companies with our members throughout last year. These companies are solid, involved in sectors regarded as high necessity. Watch here.
Revisiting Gold Bugs Ratio
As we go into today's much anticipated release of the US January CPI, here is a reminder of the inverse relationshiop between XAUUSD and the GoldBugs ratio (XAUUSD/HUI). The relationship, explained in many of my videos since March 2025 can be useful, when XAUUSD fails to give any clear signal, in which case you're likely to find tehcnical guideposts in the GoldBugs ratio. This clearly shown in the below chart gold broke multiple records between Jan 13 and Jan 28. During that time, XAUUSD had no reference resistance in sight, while GoldBugs ratio continued to break support. More significantly, see how Gold broke the 4400 in December (R), signalled by the breakdown of (S) in the ratio. And just when you were unsure whether XAUUSD would break below 4300 in late December (S1), the ratio held up its resistance (R1). If gold drops to 4700 or approaches 4600, then keep an eye on the all important resistance of 6.2 in the GoldBugs ratio.
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Typical Trading Errors
Small Traders (small in experience or in size of account) often make the common error of losing focus and exiting a trade too early. Not necessarily because it is losing money, but because it is "doing nothing". They want action every day. It's premature and silly. Take a look at USDJPY for instance. Yesterday's NFP release showed a surprise jump of 2x expectations, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.3% from 4.4%. USDJPY jumped from 153.49 to 154.60, then immediately fell back to 153.00, returned to 154.00 before sliding to 152.26. There is NOISE & there is SIGNAL. Here is a 90-second video of the trade shorting USDJPY above 155 on Monday.
Trade Tips from Washington DC
We all knew the Trump Administration wants a weak US dollar. But when the following remarks (see image below) are all made in a matter of 2 days just ahead of NFP (NFP is Today not Friday), then they sound like free trading tips from Washington to sell the US dollar. Such US dollar approach is known as "Benign Neglect", implicitely talking down the value of the US dollar, seen in the 1970s, mid 1980s & early 2000s. Does this mean NFP today will be 15K, or even 0 and not the 68K expected by consensus? Have you noticed the recent practice to show stable unemployment rate but weak payrolls? Anyway, I already shared my "sell USDJPY" and "Long XAGUSD" trades with the WhatsApp Bdcst Group on Monday and Tuesday. The USDJPY trendline from the April low thru the July & Sep lows suggests 151 is a realistic destination. Dont forget CPI on Friday. How about you? What did you do?
The Signal is Finally Here
Finally Im revealing the Mystery Chart discussed here and here. The top chart is EURGBP Daily and the bottom chart is EURGBP Weekly. I'm sure you are experienced enough to notice the top chart has finally broken above its 3-month long channel, while the weekly chart has not only held the 11-month trendline support, but is bouncing higher. Can this go to 0.89? There are other important fundamental metrics backing the trade. If you speak Arabic, join me my webinar with Swissquote this evening 6pm GMT. . If you prefer to get these daily analysis into your mailbox and not miss an update, then feel free to register (for free) in the upper corner of the website.
Figured it out yet?
On Friday I sent 2 Mystery Charts, asking you to guess what they are. The charts are in this post here. Have you figured them out yet? The price is now up 45 pips since Friday. I gave the trade to the WhatsApp Bdcst Group last week. Do not be angry. Do not worry if you have missed the move. There is more upside to come. I shall reveal the chart later today. Come on. You can do it ! Here are the charts again.
