Intraday Market Thoughts Archives
Displaying results for week of Mar 29, 202610 Pct Limit
The S&P500 index, the most widely followed index in the world (in terms of benchmarks) has now fallen exactly 10% from its record high. Major markets such as S&P500, EURUSD, XAUUSD, oil etc are widely scrutinized when their drawdowns reach high profile figures such as 10%,15% and 20%. At these points, algos and automated buy programs are alerted and even triggered. Similar action when these markets reach high profile moving averages such as 55, 100 and 200. In today's case, today's SPX 10% decline coincides with the 55-DMA. Note in the drawdown charts below, what happened when SPX drawdown reached the 10% level. The most likely scenario (according to multi-year cycle averages), indices will have a positive April before resuming fresh downside ahead.
Here is what Matters
You must be tired of reading analysis about 15 war scenarios and 7 different explanations of why gold fell with stocks despite surging geopolitical risks. But here is what really matters: Last Monday, minutes after gold hit the $4090 low, I sent the below messages to our WhatsApp Bdcst Group, clearly stating the following: 1. Gold has seen the bottom and will not fall below $4090. 2. Equity indices like the Nasdaq100 will not rebound with gold, but will continue to fall into the rest of the week until reaching a low on Friday or Sunday night. And so, just when everyone was used to the idea of gold dropping with stocks, I sent an alert to our members on Tuesday/Wednesday that the correlation will weaken, leading to gold rebounding and indices trailing behind ...until..this week. This is what really matters. The bottom image contains a message from a member thanking me for rescuing his account when he asked me whether to close his gold Long at a loss near $4370. As gold dropped to $4350, I told him to keep the Long position. He listened, held and later closed his long at $4520, making $1500 in profit. This is how we link analysis to trading and positioning.
