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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 8933
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Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)

Discuss Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
efeas, Egypt
Posts: 0
2 days ago
Dec 2, 2022 7:09

Wall Street's Complexity versus Investors' Profits & Simplicity

“Any darn fool can make something complex; it takes a genius to make something simple.” -- Pete Seeger
As a long-time trader, I am living breathing proof that simplicity and profits are positively correlated while complexity and profits are inversely correlated. In other words, as my 25 year investing career has jettisoned multiple methodologies and numerous indicators, my profits have became more regular and predictable while my losing ratio has diminished. This is the absolute antithesis of what Wall Street wants you to believe.

Wall Street lives and breathes on complexity. They pitch derivatives of every variety and alternative funds for specific self-serving reasons.

1. They want to convince investors that it’s far too complicated for them to manage their own money – therefore, the wisest decision is for investors to just give it to Wall Street managers instead.

2. They try to assure you that with this complexity come “insider” rates of returns and big profits. But then can you explain to me why so many university endowments and retirement funds are closing out their hedge fund positions? Because the returns have not justified the risks, losses and complexity.

3. Wall Street loves to use the cliché, “you get what you pay for” as justification for higher fees. So then, can you explain to me again why so many academic studies have concluded that no load mutual funds outperform advisor-recommended loaded mutual funds? The fact is that investors often do not get what they pay for.
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The catalyst for this week’s rant is that I cleaned out a closet with my old trading binders from over 20 years ago and was stunned by two observations. The first thing I realized was that I had been so vulnerable to believing Wall Street’s siren song of complexity. The second thing was that it was obvious my trading methodology back then was unnecessarily complicated.

To most individual investors, it seems counterintuitive when I preach my doctrine of simplicity, but it is precisely this simplicity that empowers you to outperform the professional money managers. Layer on top of that my other sermon that no one will manage your money with the same passion and commitment as you yourself and you have the magic ingredients for achieving consistent success as a stock market investor.
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Wall Street is based on its own version of Yin & Yang as opposites and contrary forces are actually interconnected and interdependent. In simplest terms, the market is made up of buyers and sellers, load and no load funds, passive and managed strategies. The complexity and simplicity paradigm is just another example. Much like life, one must decide to embrace the light or the dark, the hot or the cold, the high or low. So too, as an investor, you must choose between the dichotomies that Wall Street offers you.

I am simply sharing the experiences of my own journey as an investor. As I embraced the mantra of simplification in my investment methodology and my trading tools, my net worth grew. My relatively small basket of 10 technical indicators and the Tensile Trading approach that I’ve written so much about are living testimonials to this mantra.

Albert Einstein famously said, “If I had one hour to save the world, I would spend 55 minutes defining the problem and five minutes implementing the solution.” If you were in a life threatening situation and had only one hour before it proved fatal, what would you do? Einstein said he’d spend his time wisely asking probing questions to understand the problem in depth. Having done that, he’d only need 5 minutes to address the issue.

Many new investors I meet in my classes totally flip around Dr. Einstein’s approach. They have an unstoppable inclination to jump right into the market, metaphorically speaking. They’ll trade impulsively for the first 55 minutes and then allocate the last 5 minutes trying to figure out what just happened.

Humor me, please. Just go with this. Place your hands on the table, turn down the lights and let’s invite Albert Einstein to our séance to give us his advice. If it was indeed possible to “channel” him, I suspect he would suggest approaching the market’s first 55 minutes more like this:
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You have accumulated certain assets. Ask yourself if they are safe. Dr. Einstein would challenge you to address asset protection, first and foremost. Issues such as insurance, estate planning, identification theft, tax planning, record keeping and the like. You have to secure what you’ve got.
Next, he would ask if you had thought through personal money management questions and committed yourself to a personal trading plan in writing. It’s shocking how few investors actually do this. Einstein’s objective here would be to make certain you grasp the full scope of the problem.

efeas, Egypt
Posts: 0
2 months ago
Sep 20, 2022 12:39

S&P 500 Inclusion Criteria
The S&P 500 was created in 1957 and is one of the most widely quoted stock market indexes. S&P 500 stocks represent the largest publicly-traded companies in the U.S. The S&P 500 focuses on the U.S. market's large-cap sector.
An S&P 500 company must meet a broad set of criteria to be added to the index, including the following:

A total market capitalization of at least $14.6 billion
Must be a U.S. company
Must have a public float of at least 10% of its equity shares outstanding
A positive sum of the most recent four consecutive quarters of trailing earnings
Positive earnings for its most recent quarter
Must meet certain liquidity requirements

Companies may be removed from the S&P 500 if they deviate substantially from these standards.

$40.3 trillion
The total combined market cap of the 500 companies in the S&P 500 as of March 31, 2022.
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S&P 500 Calculation
The S&P 500 is a free-float market capitalization-weighted index. Market capitalization (or market cap) represents the total dollar market value of a company's outstanding equity shares. Market cap is calculated by multiplying the total number of outstanding shares of stock by the company's current stock price.
For example, a company with 20 million shares outstanding in which its stock is selling for $100 per share would have a market cap of $2 billion.

As a result, the more valuable an individual company's stock becomes, the more it contributes to the S&P 500's overall return. It is not uncommon for three-quarters of the index's return to be linked to only 50 to 75 stocks.

Therefore, the addition or subtraction of smaller companies from the index will not have a noticeable impact on the overall return of the index. However, the removal or addition of even just one of the largest stocks can have a major impact.

S&P 500 Sector Breakdown
Below are the top sectors and their weightings within the S&P 500 index as of March 31, 2022.

S&P 500 Sector Weighting
Sector Index Weighting
Information Technology 28.0%
Health Care 13.6%
Consumer Discretionary 12.0%
Financials 11.1%
Communication Services 9.4%
Industrials 7.9%
Consumer Staples 6.1%
Energy 3.9%
Utilities 2.7%
Real Estate 2.7%
Materials 2.6%
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices
Being aware of the S&P's sector weighting is important because sectors with a smaller weighting may not have a material impact on the value of the overall index—even if they're outperforming or underperforming the market.

For example, if oil prices are rising, leading to increased profits for the energy sector, those stocks represent only 3.9% of the S&P 500. As a result, oil stocks may not lead to a higher S&P if, for example, the more heavily weighted information technology sector is underperforming.

S&P 500 components are weighted by free-float market capitalization, which means that larger companies can affect the value of the index to a greater degree.
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Top 25 Components by Market Cap
Because the exact weightings of the top 25 components are not available from S&P directly, the weightings below are from the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY). SPY is the oldest exchange traded fund (ETF) that tracks the S&P 500 and holds over $419 million in assets under management (AUM) and is highly traded.

As a result, the SPY's portfolio weightings provide a good proxy for investing in the underlying S&P 500 index, although the two may not be exactly the same. As of April 1, 2022, the following are the 25 largest S&P 500 index constituents by weight:

Apple (AAPL): 7.14%
Microsoft (MSFT): 6.1%
Amazon (AMZN): 3.8%
Tesla (TSLA): 2.5%
Alphabet Class A (GOOGL): 2.2%
Alphabet Class C (GOOG): 2.1%
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA): 1.8%
Berkshire Hathaway Class B (BRK.B): 1.7%
Meta (META), formerly Facebook, Class A: 1.4%
UnitedHealth Group (UNH): 1.2%
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): 1.2%
JPMorgan Chase (JPM): 1.0%
Visa Class A (V): 1.0%
Procter & Gamble (PG): 1.0%
Exxon Mobil (XOM): 0.90%
Home Depot (HD): 0.8%
Chevron Corporation (CVX): 0.80%
Mastercard Inc. Class A (MA): 0.8%
Bank of America (BAC): 0.8%
AbbVie Inc. (ABBV): 0.7%
Pfizer (PFE): 0.7%
Broadcom Inc. (AVGO): 0.7%
Costco (COST): 0.7%
Walt Disney (DIS): 0.7%
Coca-Cola Company (KO): 0.6%
How Many Companies Are in the S&P 500?
There are 500 companies within the S&P 500 index. However, there are 505 stocks since some companies have multiple classes of equity shares, such as Alphabet and Berkshire Hathaway.

What Are the Top 10 Holdings in the S&P 500?
As of April 1, 2022, the top ten holdings and their weighting in the index are:

Apple (AAPL): 7.14%
Microsoft (MSFT): 6.1%
Amazon (AMZN): 3.8%
Tesla (TSLA): 2.5%
Alphabet Class A (GOOGL): 2.2%
Alphabet Class C (GOOG): 2.1%
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA): 1.8%
Berkshire Hathaway Class B (BRK.B): 1.6%
Meta (META), formerly Facebook, Class A: 1.4%
UnitedHealth Group (UNH): 1.2%
How Are Companies Selected for the S&P 500?
efeas, Egypt
Posts: 0
5 months ago
Jul 1, 2022 15:47
Common Retracements
The Fibonacci Retracements Tool at StockCharts shows four common retracements: 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%. From the Fibonacci section above, it is clear that 23.6%, 38.2%, and 61.8% stem from ratios found within the Fibonacci sequence. The 50% retracement is not based on a Fibonacci number. Instead, this number stems from Dow Theory's assertion that the Averages often retrace half their prior move.

Based on depth, we can consider a 23.6% retracement to be relatively shallow. Such retracements would be appropriate for flags or short pullbacks. Retracements in the 38.2%-50% range would be considered moderate. Even though deeper, the 61.8% retracement can be referred to as the golden retracement. It is, after all, based on the Golden Ratio.

Shallow retracements occur, but catching these requires a closer watch and quicker trigger finger. The examples below use daily charts covering 3-9 months. Focus will be on moderate retracements (38.2-50%) and golden retracements (61.8%). In addition, these examples will show how to combine retracements with other indicators to confirm a reversal.
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Fibonacci retracements are often used to identify the end of a correction or a counter-trend bounce. Corrections and counter-trend bounces often retrace a portion of the prior move. While short 23.6% retracements do occur, the 38.2-61.8% zone covers the most possibilities (with 50% in the middle). This zone may seem big, but it is just a reversal alert zone. Other technical signals are needed to confirm a reversal. Reversals can be confirmed with candlesticks, momentum indicators, volume or chart patterns. In fact, the more confirming factors, the more robust the signal.
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Fibonacci Retracements are ratios used to identify potential reversal levels. These ratios are found in the Fibonacci sequence. The most popular Fibonacci Retracements are 61.8% and 38.2%. Note that 38.2% is often rounded to 38% and 61.8 is rounded to 62%. After an advance, chartists apply Fibonacci ratios to define retracement levels and forecast the extent of a correction or pullback. Fibonacci Retracements can also be applied after a decline to forecast the length of a counter-trend bounce. These retracements can be combined with other indicators and price patterns to create an overall strategy.

The Sequence and Ratios
This article is not designed to delve too deep into the mathematical properties behind the Fibonacci sequence and Golden Ratio. There are plenty of other sources for this detail. A few basics, however, will provide the necessary background for the most popular numbers. Leonardo Pisano Bogollo (1170-1250), an Italian mathematician from Pisa, is credited with introducing the Fibonacci sequence to the West. It is as follows:

0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, 610……

The sequence extends to infinity and contains many unique mathematical properties.
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After 0 and 1, each number is the sum of the two prior numbers (1+2=3, 2+3=5, 5+8=13 8+13=21 etc…).
A number divided by the previous number approximates 1.618 (21/13=1.6153, 34/21=1.6190, 55/34=1.6176, 89/55=1.6181). The approximation nears 1.6180 as the numbers increase.
A number divided by the next highest number approximates .6180 (13/21=.6190, 21/34=.6176, 34/55=.6181, 55/89=.6179 etc….). The approximation nears .6180 as the numbers increase. This is the basis for the 61.8% retracement.
A number divided by another two places higher approximates .3820 (13/34=.382, 21/55=.3818, 34/89=.3820, 55/=144=3819 etc….). The approximation nears .3820 as the numbers increase. This is the basis for the 38.2% retracement. Also, note that 1 - .618 = .382
A number divided by another three places higher approximates .2360 (13/55=.2363, 21/89=.2359, 34/144=.2361, 55/233=.2361 etc….). The approximation nears .2360 as the numbers increase. This is the basis for the 23.6% retracement.
1.618 refers to the Golden Ratio or Golden Mean, also called Phi. The inverse of 1.618 is .618. These ratios can be found throughout nature, architecture, art, and biology. In his book, Elliott Wave Principle, Robert Prechter quotes William Hoffer from the December 1975 issue of Smithsonian Magazine:
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….the proportion of .618034 to 1 is the mathematical basis for the shape of playing cards and the Parthenon, sunflowers and snail shells, Greek vases and the spiral galaxies of outer space. The Greeks based much of their art and architecture upon this proportion. They called it the golden mean.
IC Markets

new delhi, India
Posts: 0
5 months ago
Jun 28, 2022 9:06
3 BHK Flats, Apartments for Sale in Uttam Nagar, Delhi | 3 BHK Flats in Uttam Nagar · 3 BHK Flat For Sale In Dream Home Makers Apartment In Uttam Nagar.
Dubai, United Arab Emirates
Posts: 0
2 years ago
Oct 30, 2020 1:07
In reply to ayaq's post

Understanding 10-Ks
Due to the depth and nature of the information they contain, 10-Ks are quite long and usually complex. But investors need to understand that this is one of the most complete and important documents a public company can publish each year. The more information they can gather from 10-K, the more they can understand about the company.

The government requires companies to issue 10-K forms so that investors have fundamental information about companies so that they can make informed investment decisions. This form gives a clearer idea of everything the company does and what types of risks it faces.

Investors who know know that 10-K can also be obtained using the company's search function through the EDGAR SEC database.
10-K includes five separate sections:
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Business. This provides an overview of the company's core operations, including its products and services (ie method of earnings).
Risk factors. They set out all the risks that the company faces or may face in the future. Risks are usually listed in order of importance.
Selected financial data. This section describes specific financial information about the company for the past five years. This section provides a brief overview of the company's recent performance.
Discussion and analysis by management of the financial condition and results of activities. Also known as MD&A, this gives the company the opportunity to explain its business results for the previous fiscal year. In this section, the company can tell its story in its own words.
Financial statements and additional data. These include the audited financial statements of the company, including the income statement, balance sheets and cash flow statement. This section also contains a letter from the company's independent auditor certifying the scope of their audit.
Declaration 10-K also includes signed letters from the CEO and CFO of the company. In it, executives swear under oath that the information included in 10-K is accurate. These letters became a requirement after several high-profile cases involving post-defeat accounting fraud.
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Where to find 10-K
It should be noted that 10-K applications are publicly available information and are readily available from a number of sources. In fact, the vast majority of companies include them in the "Investor Relations" section of their website. The information included in 10-K can be difficult to transfer, but the more familiar investors are about the layout and type of information included, the easier it will likely be to identify the most important details.

10-K is a comprehensive report published annually by state-owned companies on their financial results.
The report is required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and is much more detailed than the annual report.
The information in 10-K includes corporate history, financial statements, earnings per share and any other relevant data.
10-K is a useful tool for investors to make important decisions about their investments.
10-K application deadlines
The application deadlines for 10-K depend on the size of the company. According to the SEC, publicly traded publicly traded shares worth $ 700 million or more must file their 10-Ks within 60 days of the end of their fiscal year. Companies with a floating price of $ 75 million to $ 700 million have 75 days, while companies with less than $ 75 million have 90 days.

Forms 10-Q and 8-K
In addition to 10-K, the SEC requires state-owned companies to submit 10-Q and 8-K forms on a regular basis.
Form 10-Q must be submitted to the SEC quarterly. This form is a comprehensive report on the results of the company and contains relevant information about its financial condition. Unlike 10-K, the information in 10-Q is usually unaudited. The company only has to file it three times a year, as 10-K is filed in the fourth quarter.

Although Form 8-K is required by the SEC when companies announce important events that shareholders need to be informed about. These events may include (but are not limited to) sales, acquisitions, delisting, departures and executive elections, as well as changes in the status or control of the company, bankruptcy, information about transactions, assets and any other relevant news.

Dubai, United Arab Emirates
Posts: 0
2 years ago
Oct 30, 2020 1:07
In reply to ayaq's post

Amortization vs. Depreciation
Amortization is the practice of allocating the value of an intangible asset over the useful life of that asset. Intangible assets are not in themselves physical assets. Examples of intangible assets that are amortized may include:

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Patents and trademarks
Franchise agreements
Patented processes such as copyright
The cost of issuing bonds to raise capital
Organizational costs

Unlike depreciation, depreciation is usually spent straight-line, ie the same amount is spent in each period during the useful life of the asset. In addition, depreciable assets generally do not have the value of resale or recovery, unlike depreciation.

It is important to pay attention to the context when using the term depreciation, as it has a different meaning. The amortization schedule is often used to calculate a series of loan payments, consisting of both the principal amount and interest on each payment, as in the case of a mortgage.

The term depreciation is used both in accounting and in lending with completely different definitions and uses.
Wear and tear
Depreciation is the cost of a fixed asset over its useful life. Fixed assets are tangible assets, ie they are physical assets that can be touched. Some examples of fixed or tangible assets that are normally depreciated include:

Office furniture
Because tangible assets may have a certain value at the end of their lives, depreciation is calculated by deducting the value of the asset or the resale value from its original value. The difference is depreciated evenly over the years of the expected useful life of the asset. In other words, the amortized amount spent annually is a tax deduction for the company until the useful life of the asset expires.

For example, an office building can be used for many years before it becomes worn out and sold. The cost of the building is distributed over the estimated life of the building, with part of the costs spent for each reporting year.

Depreciation of some fixed assets can be accelerated, which means that most of the value of the asset is spent in the first years of life of the asset. For example, vehicles are usually depreciated on an accelerated basis.
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Special considerations
Depletion is another way to determine the value of economic assets. It concerns the distribution of the value of natural resources over time. For example, an oil well has a limited service life before pumping all the oil. Therefore, the cost of installing an oil well is distributed over the estimated life of the well.

The two main forms of depletion aid are the percentage of depletion and the depletion of costs. The method of percentage depletion allows businesses to assign a fixed percentage of depletion to gross income derived from the extraction of natural resources. The cost reduction method takes into account the basis of the property, the total recoverable reserves and the number of units sold.

Taking into account depreciation, amortization and depletion, all three methods are non-cash costs without cash costs over the years of their costs. It is also important to note that in some countries, such as Canada, the terms depreciation and amortization are often used interchangeably to refer to both tangible and intangible assets.

Dubai, United Arab Emirates
Posts: 0
2 years ago
Oct 30, 2020 1:06
In reply to ayaq's post

Revenue vs. Profit

Revenue is often referred to as the first line because it is at the top of the income statement. The revenue number is the revenue that the company receives before the costs are deducted.

For example, in a shoe retailer, the money he earns from selling shoes to accounting for any expenses is his income. If the company also has income from investments or a subsidiary, this income is not considered income; it doesn't come from selling shoes. Additional income streams and different types of expenses are accounted for separately.

Also called the total, profit is called net income in the income statement. In the income statement, there are variations in profit that are used to analyze the company's performance.
However, there are other rates of return between the top line (income) and the bottom line (net profit); the term "profit" may arise in the context of gross profit and operating profit. These are steps towards a net profit.

Gross profit is the income less the value of goods sold (COGS), which are direct costs associated with the production of goods sold in the company. This amount includes the cost of materials used to create the product, as well as the direct labor costs used to produce the product.

Operating income is gross profit less all other fixed and variable costs associated with doing business, such as rent, utilities and payroll.
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Example: Income versus profit
Below are the figures and part of the 2017 profit and loss statement for J. C. Penny. These figures were reported in the annual report for 10 thousand, which closed on February 3, 2018.

Revenue or total net sales = $ 12.50 billion
Gross profit = $ 4.33 billion (total revenue $ 12.50 billion - COGS $ 8.17 billion)
Operating profit = $ 116 million (less all other fixed and variable costs associated with doing business, such as rent, utilities, and payroll)
Profit or net profit = - 116 million USD. USA (loss) 1
The main differences
When most people refer to the company's profit, they do not mean gross profit or operating profit, but rather net profit, which is the balance after expenses, or net profit. The company can make a profit, but have a net loss. We see that JK Penny suffered a loss of $ 116 million, despite a profit of $ 12.5 billion. Losses usually occur when debts or expenses exceed profits, as in the case of J. K. Penny.

Special considerations
Accrued revenue is the same as unrealized revenue. Accrued revenue is the income earned by a company for the delivery of goods or services that have not yet been paid by the customer.

For example, the company sells widgets for $ 5 each on a net-30 basis to all its customers, and in August sells 10 widgets. Because he invoices his customers on a net 30 basis, the company's customers will only have to pay in 30 days or on September 30. As a result, revenue for August will be considered accrued revenue until the company receives payment from the customer.
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In terms of accounting, the company recognizes $ 50 of income in its income statement of $ 50 as an asset on its balance sheet. When a company collects $ 50, the cash account in the income statement increases, the accrued income account decreases, and the $ 50 in the income statement remains unchanged.

It is important not to confuse accrued income with unearned income; unearned income can be perceived as the opposite of accrued income.
Unearned income is money paid by the customer for goods or services that were not delivered. If a company requires a prepayment for its goods, it recognizes revenue as unearned and will not recognize revenue in its income statement until the period during which the goods or services were delivered.

Dubai, United Arab Emirates
Posts: 0
2 years ago
Oct 30, 2020 1:04
In reply to ayaq's post

Bottom-Line Growth vs. Top-Line Growth

The result of growth
Management can apply strategies to increase results. For starters, the revenue increase, or top row, should filter and increase the bottom row. This can be done by increasing production, reducing the return on sales by improving products, expanding the product line or increasing prices. Other income, such as investment income, interest income, rent or accommodation fees charged, and the sale of property or equipment, also increase the result.

The company can increase its lower limit by reducing costs. The company's products can be manufactured using a variety of input products or using more efficient methods. Reducing wages and benefits, working with less expensive institutions, using tax breaks and limiting the cost of capital are ways to increase the result. For example, a company that finds a new supplier of raw materials, which would save millions of dollars, would contribute to the company's success. Conversely, if a company's bottom line shows a decrease from one period to the next, it indicates that the company has experienced a drop in revenue or a sharp increase in costs.
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In terms of accounting, the lower position of the company does not carry forward the income statement for one period. Accounting entries are made to close all temporary accounts, including all income and expense accounts. After closing these accounts, the net balance or total is transferred to retained earnings.

The company's management can spend the result or net profit in different ways. The result can be used for payments to shareholders in the form of dividends as an incentive to retain ownership. In addition, the bottom line can be used to repurchase shares and dispose of equity. Or, the company may retain all of the reported profits for use in product development, location expansion, or other means of improving the company.
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The highest growth
Companies that see a surge in growth tend to experience an increase in sales or revenue. There are various ways a company can grow its first lines. For example, a marketing team may launch a new advertising campaign that successfully attracts customers and increases sales by 20% compared to the previous quarter. The company may come up with a new product that brings in extra revenue, or the company may increase prices. A company can also increase its top line by acquiring another company. Strategic acquisitions can lead to an increase in market share, which in turn contributes to the growth of the upper level.

The top bar shows how effective the company is in generating sales. However, it does not take into account the inefficiency of work, which may affect the company's results. The term "top line" comes from the fact that the company reports its revenue numbers at the top of the income statement. The top line is a purely gross sales indicator that shows how much revenue the company has earned over a period of time. As such, it does not deduct costs, such as the value of goods sold (COGS), incurred by the enterprise for the production of its goods. It does not display discounts on discounts or returns.

Growth at the highest level is an increase in the revenue that a company receives from its core business operations. Companies may receive other types of income, such as interest and income from the sale of assets. These types of income are not included in the growth rates at the highest level.
The main differences
The most profitable companies tend to grow both their top and bottom lines. However, more established companies may have equal sales or revenues for a given reporting period, but can still increase their results by reducing costs. Cost-cutting measures are common during periods of sluggish economic activity or recession.

Dubai, United Arab Emirates
Posts: 0
2 years ago
Oct 30, 2020 1:03
In reply to saad44z's post

Understanding Terminal Value (TV)
The forecast becomes darker as the time horizon increases. This also applies to finances, especially when it comes to estimating the company's cash flows in the future. At the same time, business needs to be valued. To "solve" this, analysts use financial models, such as discounted cash flow (DCF), along with certain assumptions to obtain the total value of the business or project.

Discounted cash flow (discounted cash flow) is a popular method used in feasibility studies, corporate acquisitions and stock market valuations. This method is based on the theory that the value of an asset is equal to all future cash flows received from that asset. These cash flows must be discounted to their present value at a discount rate that represents the cost of capital, such as an interest rate.
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DCF consists of two main components: the forecast period and the final value. The estimated period is usually about five years. Anything longer than that and the accuracy of the forecasts suffer. Here, calculating the value of the terminal becomes important.

There are two commonly used methods for calculating the final cost: perpetual growth (Gordon's growth model) and multiple output. The first assumes that the business will continue to generate cash flow at a constant rate forever, while the second assumes that the business will be sold in multiples of some market indicators. Investment professionals prefer a multiple approach, while scientists prefer a model of perpetual growth.

Terminal value types (TV)
The method of eternity and free forex trading signals
The discount is necessary because the temporary value of money creates a mismatch between the current and future value of a given amount of money. When valuing a business, free cash flow or dividends can be forecast for a period of time, but estimating the results of current problems becomes more difficult as forecasts spread further into the future. Moreover, it is difficult to determine the exact time when the company may cease operations.

To overcome these limitations, investors can assume that cash flows will grow at a steady rate forever, starting at some point in the future. This is the ultimate value.

The cost of the terminal is calculated by dividing the last projected cash flow by the difference between the discount rate and the growth rate of the terminal. The terminal cost estimate estimates the value of the company after the forecast period. Formula for calculating the final value:

(FCF * (1 + g)) / (d - g)


FCF = Free cash flow for the last forecast period

g = terminal growth rate

d = discount rate (which is usually the weighted average cost of capital)

The final growth rate is the constant rate at which the company is expected to grow forever. This growth rate begins at the end of the last forecast period of cash flow according to the discounted cash flow model and passes into eternity. The final growth rate usually corresponds to a long-term inflation rate, but not higher than the historical growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP).
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Exit from several methods
If investors assume a limited transaction window, there is no need to use a model of indefinite growth. Instead, the final cost should reflect the net realizable value of the company's assets at that time. This often means that equity will be acquired by a larger firm, and the cost of acquisitions is often calculated with multiple yields.
Yield ratios measure the fair price by multiplying financial statistics, such as sales, earnings or interest income, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA), by a ratio that is common to similar firms that have recently been acquired. The formula for the value of a terminal using the multiple output method is the last metric (ie sales, EBITDA, etc.) multiplied by the accepted multiple (usually the average of the last multiple outputs for other transactions). Investment banks often use this valuation method, but some detractors are reluctant to use their own and relative valuation methods at the same time.

riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Posts: 0
2 years ago
Oct 14, 2020 15:01
In reply to Ashraf Laidi's post
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