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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 8898
Forum Topic:

Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)

Discuss Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
 
usikpa
Moscow, Russia
Posts: 77
5 years ago
Jan 10, 2016 22:31
In reply to oldgreywhistletest's post
Every price below 30 is unsustainable. 13 must be some long term very bad scenario target, isn't it?
oldgreywhistletest
mulhouse, France
Posts: 0
5 years ago
Jan 10, 2016 11:02
In reply to usikpa's post
hi usikpa how are you?

long time...oil to set at the 13 dollars a barrel.
usikpa
Moscow, Russia
Posts: 77
5 years ago
Jan 9, 2016 19:28
In reply to Rob's post
In his book Ashraf points out that the ratio has never been higher than 35 (since an ounce of Gold was selling for USD 35 and a barrel of oil was selling for USD 1 - 1.50). Later on , back in 1973 it hit 34. So, if GC keeps above USD 1000 at least, mathematically oil should't be below 30.

Another interesting observation of his is that four of the five US recessions were preceded by a rapid decline of the ratio to the bottom of the range (8-10).
oldgreywhistletest
mulhouse, France
Posts: 0
5 years ago
Jan 9, 2016 9:37
In reply to Rob's post
rob mind that 2017 will be thetime when fed will succeed to be onthe parh of attaining in inflation target and that GC will take off.
oldgreywhistletest
mulhouse, France
Posts: 0
5 years ago
Jan 9, 2016 9:31
In reply to Rob's post
rob
since 2003 we are in a commodity supercycle and right now we are in the pause for the next phase of the this cycle.
oil and gold have moved in tandem with positive correlation so mind the importance of this long term line that is gonna be broken down a bit in the medium term.
my target of 827 dollars is accurate but we are gonna observe still a rout in commodities by year end with a possibly to see the GC goingto 1178 dollars an ounce on sian risk aversion.
as for oil mind that this year is gonna see the price of crude ending at less than 20 dollars a barrel.
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
5 years ago
Jan 8, 2016 1:00
Ashraf,

Can you please explain the implications of the Gold/Oil ratio? I saw you tweeted about it, and my book of yours is buried somewhere - time to write a new one!

I see some possible serious moves with it - double-top in the 30's? Or it crashes straight through to all-time highs... If resistance holds, does CAD make a comeback? With this environment, and probably few if any rate hikes, I don't see gold going much lower. Perhaps the biggest surprise of 2016 is that oil rebounds (sharply)??

Thanks,
Rob (one of the original forum contributors :))
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
5 years ago
Jan 2, 2016 17:13
Has anyone looked at the gold-oil ratio recently? At 28+ it's looking like it should come down quite a bit with 30 being a pretty major resistance. Perhaps oil will surprise to the upside in a big way in 2016, and maybe CAD along with it...
oldgreywhistletest
mulhouse, France
Posts: 0
5 years ago
Jan 2, 2016 15:37
In reply to Steve Smith's post
all best wishes for 2016

GC at target 826dollar an ounce for 2016 with full corrleation in term of price of currency
euro drag down also on commod rout and ecb continuation of asset purchase
oil searching for the support to reach for first semester 67 and then year end 17 dollar
euro for making the 1.1789 before entering the last leg of draw down to first .98 then .92 on fin ext.
georgetorrent
Dunedin, New Zealand
Posts: 0
5 years ago
Dec 31, 2015 10:06
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Steve Smith
New york City, United States
Posts: 0
5 years ago
Dec 29, 2015 14:36
Hi there!!

I am a bit late to enter in to your discussion regarding Gold,oil and indices in my opinion there are a lot of new trending articles and oil and gold are one of them.Out of them in my opinion and by doing the amount of research i can say that the value of oil is going to skyrocket in 2016 and these will create a boom in market.
http://www.profitconfidential.com/tag/opec-oil-prices/