Posts by "usikpa"

In his book Ashraf points out that the ratio has never been higher than 35 (since an ounce of Gold was selling for USD 35 and a barrel of oil was selling for USD 1 - 1.50). Later on , back in 1973 it hit 34. So, if GC keeps above USD 1000 at least, mathematically oil should't be below 30.

Another interesting observation of his is that four of the five US recessions were preceded by a rapid decline of the ratio to the bottom of the range (8-10).

Ashraf,

Still hoping to hear out your answer. As my arabic isn't great, would appreciate your view of the bigger picture in English either here or elsewhere. As VIX goes over 40 next week, would you be a buyer of equities (risk assets) then or rather wait it out till August - September?

Ashraf,

Just a question for you, as I listen very carefully to what you have to say (and I gather you usually have much more to say than on these forums :()

People in the know suggest that we are, basicaly, guaranteed to see VIX =ᡠ this month.

Would you be a buyer of equities then?

Thank you

Of the three, PMI is the best in terms of tracking GDP.
IFO is a good measurement of business expectations, considered a fairly good prediction of the brent oil price
ZEW is just another opinion by the likes of you and me. Goldman economics team has long 'downgraded' it

Ashraf,
It would appear to me the below should read as follows:

"As long as the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England continue to FLATTEN their own yield curves via LTROs, Operation Twist and QE3 respectively..."

Operation twist and LTRO have nothing to do with instigating inflation, one would presume...

Would be interested to know your view given that macro data out of the US is very much likely to deteriorate (word has it so) next month