EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
Deflationary Bitcoin صلابة بيتكوين
How bitcoin halving reduces bitcoin inflation below that of gold and how its "hardness" can beat every other asset & currency over time. Watch here.
كيف تنخفض نسبة التضخم في بيتكوين تحت نسبة تضخم الذهب و ما يعني "صلابة" بيتكوين كعملة او إرادة؟
Bitcoin versus Miners Performance
As many of you know 2023 was kind to members of our WhatsApp Broadcast Group who snapped up shares in bitcoin miners, while 2024 has so far been more superior to Bitcoin than most of the miners...
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A number of funds are reducing their PM exposure as US yields rise. Ashraf has often talked about how long term bond yields affect currency flows. The 10 year, and especially the 30 year yields in the US are rising, and lifting the dollar with it.
Further the blow-out top in silver last Tuesday is as good as it gets as a technical top (at least for the short term). The silver-gold ratio has reached a significant measured move milestone. Copper has also reached a major resistance level. All these point to a pause in the "stuff" rally. There is also the action of the emerging markets trying to rein in inflation in one form or another which is likely to keep commodities in a corrective mode for some time.
Also keep in mind that the Fed has been universally condemned for its QE2. It got suckered in by the rise in first time unemployment claims, which have since declined to pre-Lehman levels. It is not outside the realm of possibility that QE2 itself might be constrained (e.g. the buybacks spread over a longer period of time).
So a pause in the PM run is perfectly reasonable outcome to expect.
Whenever you have the time, do share your thoughts about the end-game to the PIIGS crisis.
I agree with you that the EMU will likely stay intact; there is too much at stake. However, the holes are fairly big.
How far do you see the current crisis and the revelation about the off-balance sheet sovereign debt affect Euro's credibility as a reserve currency? The likely fall-out is greater appetite for hard-assets/commodity currencies. This can result in a situation where the DXY rises because of the weight of the EUR/GBP, while commodities also rise as reserves held in Euros seek other alternatives. Possible??
BNP is out with a EU320 Billion estimate for a bailout package.http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a.yAFN.xKOIg&pos=15
Do you think that such a package will go through? How much of it is going to be QE style money printing and how much will be loans? Will the IMF get involved (like suggested by Irwin Stelzer for the UKhttp://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-02-17/cameron-should-mull-u-k-plea-to-imf-stelzer-says-update1-.html).
Thanks for the great posts and twits. A few months ago I had commented on the forums that the Euro will face an existentialist issue and its status as a reserve currency will come under pressure. We are seeing some of those canaries sing now.
From your perch, how bad do you see the crisis become? This is a sovereign macro issue and may take a long time to play out but what is the end game you see here?
Thank You
Where do you think Cable is heading? It just bounced off the Daily DeMark TDST Resistance around 1.6658 near 2010 EST. Even talk of increased QE by the BOE did not help the Dollar today though as you pointed out in your IMT that comment of the non-voting Fed Governor seems to have been the green light to sell the USD.
Also any thoughts on the entire Spanish bank situation (Variant Perception) and the potential impact on ECB policy and the Euro?
Ashraf:
This note talks about the Spanish housing bubble and the loans tied to them. They estimate total losses in the order of Eur 250B It seems the banks in Spain seem to have some leeway in how to mark their book. Is this something which will blow up someday, or something which will remain hidden under the carpet forever?
Much of the negative reports about the Euro Zone have focussed on the Eastern Europe and the Baltic. But Spanish housing bubble seems to be the grand-daddy of them all. The number of unsold homes in Spain is the same as the US, a market six times as big as Spain! How do you think this will play out?
Do you expect the ECB also to follow the BOE (in some form), after the German elections are over and done with?
Why is the poor bond auction resulting in a stronger USD? Shouldn't it raise the fear of more QE?
Thanks for the response. So in your opinion, the QE related selling of a dollar is more of a macro sell since it signals a poor economy (and future consequences of the fiscal & monetary policy), and not driven that much by technical selling because of some underlying dynamics of currency flows triggered by QE or bond auctions.
Thanks for your summary of the difference between the US and the Euro-Zone in terms of the consumer, unemployment, banks etc. I will appreciate any pointers for a deeper analysis of the issue.
This trend in the Euro is very strong, and as you said earlier currencies trend a lot. From whatever little I know, the US is still the best of the worst when it comes to the developed world. So not sure whether this run in the Euro is sustainable, unlike the commodity currencies.
Do you think the Euro's anti-Dollar role will last for too long or will the commodities currencies become the true anti-Dollar? Do you have any targets on the Euro before this rally retraces?
During this crisis the ECB has always behind the curve. It is likely whatever the US Fed does, the ECB will have to follow. Ironically, the fact that ECB does not have the sovereign freedom of the Fed might make it less likely to cause damage. However that also might lead to a much longer and severe recession/depression in the Euro zone.